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Macrofinancial Stress Testing on Australian Banks

20 Sep 2022 RDP 2022-03
Nicholas Garvin, Samuel Kurian, Mike Major and David Norman
It is designed with a focus on understanding systemic vulnerabilities and a philosophy of prioritising transparency over complexity. ... The paper sets out the key features of this model, how it was used during the past two years and the areas in which
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-03.html

Appendix A: Model Specifications

20 Sep 2022 RDP 2022-03
Nicholas Garvin, Samuel Kurian, Mike Major and David Norman
The first component, net interest income ( NetIntInc. it. ), is further separated into interest income ( IntInc. ... it. –1. ), which is the combination of all the remaining securities asset classes.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-03/appendix-a.html

Model Framework

20 Sep 2022 RDP 2022-03
Nicholas Garvin, Samuel Kurian, Mike Major and David Norman
It is motivated by an aim of observing how well banks can withstand stress without needing to take drastic action (i.e. ... In practice, it is very unlikely that a bank will restrict AT1 coupons unless it comes under severe stress.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-03/model-framework.html

Macrofinancial Stress Testing on Australian Banks

20 Sep 2022 RDP 2022-03
Nicholas Garvin, Samuel Kurian, Mike Major and David Norman
A philosophy of not over-engineering the model and keeping it relatively simple and transparent. ... As a result, it typically exacerbates the pace of decline that banks experience.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-03/full.html

Credit Loss Modelling

20 Sep 2022 RDP 2022-03
Nicholas Garvin, Samuel Kurian, Mike Major and David Norman
It also enables the scenario to incorporate changes in interest rates or fiscal policy, if desired. ... As a result, it typically exacerbates the pace of decline that banks experience.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-03/credit-loss-modelling.html

Contagion Modelling and Feedback Loops

20 Sep 2022 RDP 2022-03
Nicholas Garvin, Samuel Kurian, Mike Major and David Norman
It is possible that such fire sales could have adverse effects on other banks' capital ratios as well. ... Nonetheless, there are three reasons why it is worth considering the potential for fire sales.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-03/contagion-modelling-and-feedback-loops.html

Capital and Asset Growth

20 Sep 2022 RDP 2022-03
Nicholas Garvin, Samuel Kurian, Mike Major and David Norman
If a bank makes a profit in the period, but its CET1 ratio is below the threshold for unconstrained dividend payments, then it pays a constrained dividend. ... 4). If a bank makes a loss, then it pays no dividend, regardless of the level of its CET1 ratio
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-03/capital-and-asset-growth.html

Introduction

20 Sep 2022 RDP 2022-03
Nicholas Garvin, Samuel Kurian, Mike Major and David Norman
A philosophy of not over-engineering the model and keeping it relatively simple and transparent. ... This paper documents the key features of the model, including plans for how it will most likely evolve in the future.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-03/introduction.html

Non-technical summary for ‘The Rise in Household Liquidity’

20 Sep 2022 RDP 2022-03
Nicholas Garvin, Samuel Kurian, Mike Major and David Norman
In a stress test, it is typically assumed that the economy enters a ‘severe but plausible’ downturn in which unemployment rises significantly and property prices fall sharply. ... It also shows how the model was useful in a real-world crisis, at the
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-03/non-technical-summary.html

How the Model Was Used during COVID-19

20 Sep 2022 RDP 2022-03
Nicholas Garvin, Samuel Kurian, Mike Major and David Norman
and so it takes very extreme shocks to move a large share of loans into a position of negative equity. ... This outcome is a direct result of the resilience that comes from banks' underlying profitability: when the economy weakens over a prolonged period,
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-03/how-the-model-was-used-during-covid-19.html