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Non-technical summary for ‘Job Loss, Subjective Expectations and Household Spending’

18 Aug 2021 RDP 2021-08
Gabrielle Penrose and Gianni La Cava
It is well established that job loss is associated with reductions in earning and spending. ... Most workers persistently overestimate their job loss risk, but some persistently underestimate it.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-08/non-technical-summary.html

Job Loss, Subjective Expectations and Household Spending

18 Aug 2021 RDP 2021-08
Gabrielle Penrose and Gianni La Cava
Most workers persistently overestimate their job loss risk, but some persistently underestimate it. ... It is well established that unemployment is associated with significant welfare losses (Gruber 1997).
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-08/full.html

Introduction

1 Aug 2021 RDP 2021-08
Gabrielle Penrose and Gianni La Cava
Most workers persistently overestimate their job loss risk, but some persistently underestimate it. ... It is well established that unemployment is associated with significant welfare losses (Gruber 1997).
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-08/introduction.html

Appendix A: Testing the Predictive Ability of Workers' Subjective Expectations

1 Aug 2021 RDP 2021-08
Gabrielle Penrose and Gianni La Cava
It is possible that beliefs about job prospects evolve differently across individuals over time. ... This economic effect is small and t-tests confirm it is far from the value of one, pointing to a violation of rational expectations.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-08/appendix-a.html

Why Does Unemployment Reduce Spending?

1 Aug 2021 RDP 2021-08
Gabrielle Penrose and Gianni La Cava
It also highlights that even asset-rich households may experience large consumption losses due to illiquid wealth. ... The effect of job loss on spending varies with age. Specifically, it appears to be a quadratic function of age, with households where
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-08/why-does-unemployment-reduce-spending.html

How Does Unemployment Affect Household Spending?

1 Aug 2021 RDP 2021-08
Gabrielle Penrose and Gianni La Cava
It is also likely that consumption effects are larger for single-income families than those presented here. ... As a result, while the results are similar to the literature, it is possible that the estimates are understated.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-08/how-does-unemployment-affect-household-spending.html

Can Workers Predict Actual Labour Market Outcomes?

1 Aug 2021 RDP 2021-08
Gabrielle Penrose and Gianni La Cava
However, it is worth noting that predicting your future job prospects is generally a very challenging task. ... Alternatively, workers that expect to lose their job may have a greater incentive to work harder to keep it.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-08/can-workers-predict-actual-labour-market-outcomes.html

Measuring Subjective Employment Expectations and Household Spending

1 Aug 2021 RDP 2021-08
Gabrielle Penrose and Gianni La Cava
For example, a small decline in annual spending in the year of job loss would not tell us if the household reduced spending a little but spread it out over the ... Third, food expenditure, particularly groceries, is also commonly used in existing research
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2021/2021-08/measuring-subjective-employment-expectations-and-household-spending.html