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Okun's Law and Potential Output

7 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2015-14 Okun's Law and Potential Output Abstract. ... Okun's law also implies a rate of output growth consistent with stable unemployment, called the growth of potential output.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14.html

Okun's Law and Potential Output

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2015-14 Okun's Law and Potential Output.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/

Data for RDP2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output

7 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
Research Discussion Papers contain the results of economic research within the Reserve Bank
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14-data.html

Forecasting

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output 5. Forecasting. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. ... The use of revised data may give rise to concerns that we may overstate our model's forecasting performance at short horizons.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/forecasting.html

Introduction

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
In contrast to RBA forecasts, recent forecasts by Okun's law have been unbiased. ... Okun's law is able to explain most of the asymmetry in unemployment rate changes.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/introduction.html

Models

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output 3. Models. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. ... Download the Paper 987. KB. We present two models of Okun's law in changes.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/models.html

Specification Issues

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output 6. Specification Issues. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. ... That is, Ball et al (2013) overstate the evidence that Okun's law holds in levels.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/specification-issues.html

Estimation

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
Long-run effect of output on unemployment. (‘Okun's coefficient’). 0.27. 0.35. (a). ... Most of the model's explanatory power comes from changes in the output gap.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/estimation.html

References

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output References. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. ... Layard R, S Nickell and R Jackman (1991),. Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market. ,
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/references.html

Comparisons with Previous Research

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output 2. Comparisons with Previous Research. ... Okun's preferred estimates, which are similar, averaged estimates from a range of specifications.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/comparisons-with-previous-research.html