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RBA Glossary definition for GDP

GDP – Gross Domestic Product. A key measure of the value of economic production in the economy. GDP is determined in one of three ways: the value of goods and services produced less the cost of production; the sum of incomes generated by production; the sum of final expenditure on goods and services produced plus exports minus imports. An average of the three approaches may be calculated and is also referred to as GDP.

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Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts

12 Nov 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
Research Discussion Papers contain the results of economic research within the Reserve Bank
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07.html

How Do These Estimates Compare?

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
04. 78. 0.60. 0.13. GDP growth; 4-quarter percentage change. Historical mean. ... For GDP growth, our uninformative alternative forecast is the historic (since 1959) mean.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/how-estimates-compare.html

Data

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
For GDP growth, this means using near-real-time data, while for underlying inflation we use definitions used at the time of the corresponding forecast. ... In contrast, the relationship between the forecasts and GDP growth (third panel on left) is harder
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/data.html

Appendix B: Data

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
CPI inflation. GDP. Unemployment. 1991:Q1–2000:Q1. JEFG,. SMP. text. and Board papers. ... Finally, before 2000, the source data for GDP forecasts are paper records showing quarterly changes.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/appendix-b.html

Appendix A: Measures of Uncertainty Presented by Foreign Central Banks

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
Real GDP and its components; Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. ECB (2009, 2011). ... Real GDP growth; unemployment rate; total consumer prices. FOMC (2007); Reifschneider and Tulip (2007).
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/appendix-a.html

Conclusion

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
SMP. forecasts of underlying inflation, the CPI, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate. ... Our estimates indicate that uncertainty about the forecast is high, particularly for GDP growth.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/conclusion.html

Other Properties of the Confidence Intervals

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
One implication of these results is that surprises to GDP growth are not persistent. ... That is, there is little inertia or momentum in the unpredictable component of GDP growth.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/other-properties-confidence-intervals.html

Introduction

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
As has been found for many forecasters overseas, the RBA's forecasts of GDP growth lack explanatory power. ... Relative to private sector forecasts, RBA forecasts of inflation have been marginally more accurate while forecasts of GDP growth have been
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/introduction.html

Data for RDP 2012-07: Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts

12 Nov 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
Research Discussion Papers contain the results of economic research within the Reserve Bank
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07-data.html

Alternatives and Limitations

31 Dec 2012 RDP 2012-07
Peter Tulip and Stephanie Wallace
This comprises two lags of domestic GDP growth, underlying inflation, the cash rate and the exchange rate, together with foreign output growth, inflation and interest rates. ... The model suggests more certainty about the outlook for unemployment and for
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/2012-07/alt-limitations.html