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The Relationship between Financial Indicators and Economic Activity: 1968-1987

1 Aug 1988 RDP 8805
Michele Bullock, Dirk Morris and Glenn Stevens
Research Discussion Papers contain the results of economic research within the Reserve Bank
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/8805.html

The Indicators

1 Aug 1988 RDP 8805
Michele Bullock, Dirk Morris and Glenn Stevens
On the other hand, because it is a broader measure, it also reflects many other factors besides financial conditions. ... Hence, it is a good indicator of the cost to banks of short-term professional funds.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/8805/indicators.html

Introduction

1 Aug 1988 RDP 8805
Michele Bullock, Dirk Morris and Glenn Stevens
It is, therefore, mostly concerned with short to medium-term relationships. The relationship between financial variables and economic activity can be examined in a variety of ways. ... Nor does it spell out the transmission mechanism by which a change in
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/8805/introduction.html

Conclusions

1 Aug 1988 RDP 8805
Michele Bullock, Dirk Morris and Glenn Stevens
It is also possible that the usefulness of the banking aggregates, relative to interest rates, as indicators of nominal demand in these earlier periods may have been a function of the ... This question has not 4een addressed in this paper; it will be
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/8805/conclusions.html

Appendix: Data Sources and Methods

1 Aug 1988 RDP 8805
Michele Bullock, Dirk Morris and Glenn Stevens
At the same time, it is desirable to avoid giving a misleading impression as to the timing of turning points, hence, the moving average is centred, and has a small number
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/8805/appendix.html

Financial Indicators and Real Private Demand: Correlation Analysis

1 Aug 1988 RDP 8805
Michele Bullock, Dirk Morris and Glenn Stevens
On balance, the relationship is not as strong for M1 as it is for interest rates. ... rates. There is a significant coefficient on the fourth lead, but it is of the wrong sign.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/8805/financial-indicators-and-real-private-demand-correlation-analysis.html

Financial Indicators and Nominal Private Demand: Correlation Analysis

1 Aug 1988 RDP 8805
Michele Bullock, Dirk Morris and Glenn Stevens
It suggests that the broader lending and credit aggregates do lag nominal demand. ... It is likely that the strength of this association, given the very large movements in both the series, dominates the correlation result.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/8805/financial-indicators-and-nominal-private-demand-correlation-analysis.html

Financial Indicators and Real Private Demand: Graphical Comparisons

1 Aug 1988 RDP 8805
Michele Bullock, Dirk Morris and Glenn Stevens
For example, in the most severe post-War recession (1982/83), it was of no help at all. ... It shows a similar pattern to M3 but, if anything, has an inferior “fit”.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/8805/financial-indicators-and-real-private-demand-graphical-comparisons.html

Financial Indicators and Nominal Private Demand: Graphical Comparisons

1 Aug 1988 RDP 8805
Michele Bullock, Dirk Morris and Glenn Stevens
All three aggregates have a strong positive relationship with growth in nominal demand, although they appear to lag it. ... It also had a clear positive relationship with the smaller downturn in 1979.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/1988/8805/financial-indicators-and-nominal-private-demand-graphical-comparisons.html