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A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy: An Update

1 Dec 2005 RDP 2005-11
Andrew Stone, Troy Wheatley and Louise Wilkinson
Research Discussion Papers contain the results of economic research within the Reserve Bank
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2005/2005-11.html

Summary

31 Dec 2005 RDP 2005-11
Andrew Stone, Troy Wheatley and Louise Wilkinson
However, it remains small, highly aggregated and non-monetary in nature. It also remains empirically based, so as to be consistent with the behaviour of key variables in the Australian economy
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2005/2005-11/summary.html

Introduction and Overview

31 Dec 2005 RDP 2005-11
Andrew Stone, Troy Wheatley and Louise Wilkinson
Nevertheless, it remains rich enough to encompass many of the subtleties of the interactions between key variables in the Australian economy. ... for this equation, rather than just the latter part of it (as was the case in Beechey et al).
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2005/2005-11/introduction.html

Appendix B: Econometric Issues

31 Dec 2005 RDP 2005-11
Andrew Stone, Troy Wheatley and Louise Wilkinson
We conclude that it is unnecessary to estimate the model as a system. ... The filtering process is therefore unlikely to be over-fitting the model equations used to condition it – including the unit labour cost equation – to any serious degree.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2005/2005-11/appendix-b.html

References

31 Dec 2005 RDP 2005-11
Andrew Stone, Troy Wheatley and Louise Wilkinson
Gruen D and J Wilkinson (1991), ‘Australia's real exchange rate – Is it explained by the terms of trade or by real interest differentials?’, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2005/2005-11/references.html

Appendix D: Glossary and Data

31 Dec 2005 RDP 2005-11
Andrew Stone, Troy Wheatley and Louise Wilkinson
Beyond 1998:Q2 it is extended using the same method. Source: Consumer Price Index, ABS Cat No 6401.0.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2005/2005-11/appendix-d.html

Remaining Components of the Model

31 Dec 2005 RDP 2005-11
Andrew Stone, Troy Wheatley and Louise Wilkinson
Most recently, the gap has remained around zero. However, it has been below zero on average over the sample period. ... It is also consistent with the out-year GDP growth rate projection recently adopted by the Australian Treasury in the 2005–06 Budget.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2005/2005-11/remaining-components-model.html

Appendix C: Adjusting for the Balassa-Samuelson Effect

31 Dec 2005 RDP 2005-11
Andrew Stone, Troy Wheatley and Louise Wilkinson
Hence, it is a Balassa-Samuelson adjusted version of ulc, denoted ulc.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2005/2005-11/appendix-c.html

Simulations

31 Dec 2005 RDP 2005-11
Andrew Stone, Troy Wheatley and Louise Wilkinson
It also causes an immediate decline in the output gap, which further contributes to lower consumer price inflation and, with the nominal cash rate held constant, initiates a cycle of higher
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2005/2005-11/simulations.html