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RBA Glossary definition for Trend

Trend – A trend series is a seasonally adjusted series that has been further adjusted to remove irregular effects and �smooth� out the series to show the overall �trend� of the data over time. This series is usually provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

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Read me file

13 Dec 2022 RDP 2022-07
Sharon Lai, Kevin Lane and Laura Nunn
support_test_prior_trends.R – runs the test of prior trends for Section 5.2.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-07/read-me.html

Introduction

13 Dec 2022 RDP 2022-07
Sharon Lai, Kevin Lane and Laura Nunn
Section 2 describes the TFF in detail, before discussing take-up of the facility and trends in business lending.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-07/introduction.html

Identification Strategies, Challenges and Assumptions

13 Dec 2022 RDP 2022-07
Sharon Lai, Kevin Lane and Laura Nunn
The pre-TFF trends are also similar for aggregate business credit extended by banks and non-banks (Figure 7). ... We run a test of prior trends, which uses a simple difference-in-difference model.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-07/identification-strategies-challenges-and-assumptions.html

The Term Funding Facility: Has It Encouraged Business Lending?

13 Dec 2022 RDP 2022-07
Sharon Lai, Kevin Lane and Laura Nunn
Section 2 describes the TFF in detail, before discussing take-up of the facility and trends in business lending. ... As such, this specification is more robust to the potential violations of the parallel trends assumption discussed above.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-07/full.html

Was the Additional Allowance Feature Effective?

13 Dec 2022 RDP 2022-07
Sharon Lai, Kevin Lane and Laura Nunn
As such, this specification is more robust to the potential violations of the parallel trends assumption discussed above. ... However, large and increasing confidence intervals suggest that our estimates are too imprecise to determine whether this trend
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2022/2022-07/was-the-additional-allowance-feature-effective.html