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Okun's Law and Potential Output

7 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2015-14 Okun's Law and Potential Output Abstract. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. December 2015. 987. KB. forecasting, labour market, productivity. We find that Okun's law provides a simple and accurate means of
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14.html

Okun's Law and Potential Output

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2015-14 Okun's Law and Potential Output. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. December 2015 – ISSN 1448-5109 (Online). 987. KB. The Discussion Paper series is intended to make the results of the current economic
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/

Data for RDP2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output

7 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
Research Discussion Papers contain the results of economic research within the Reserve Bank
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14-data.html

Models

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output 3. Models. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. December 2015 – ISSN 1448-5109 (Online). Download the Paper 987. KB. We present two models of Okun's law in changes. A simple benchmark with constant
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/models.html

References

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output References. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. December 2015 – ISSN 1448-5109 (Online). Download the Paper 987. KB. Ball L, JT Jalles and P Loungani (2015), ‘Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/references.html

Introduction

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output 1. Introduction. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. December 2015 – ISSN 1448-5109 (Online). Download the Paper 987. KB. ‘Okun's law’ refers to the strong correlation observed between the unemployment
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/introduction.html

Forecasting

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output 5. Forecasting. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. December 2015 – ISSN 1448-5109 (Online). Download the Paper 987. KB. An important problem confronting macroeconomic policymakers – and a motivation for
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/forecasting.html

Directions for Future Research

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output 7. Directions for Future Research. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. December 2015 – ISSN 1448-5109 (Online). Download the Paper 987. KB. Our conclusions are stated in the introduction and we do not
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/directions-for-future-research.html

Specification Issues

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output 6. Specification Issues. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. December 2015 – ISSN 1448-5109 (Online). Download the Paper 987. KB. 6.1 Asymmetry. A striking feature of the unemployment rate is that the
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/specification-issues.html

Estimation

31 Dec 2015 RDP 2015-14
David Lancaster and Peter Tulip
RDP 2015-14: Okun's Law and Potential Output 4. Estimation. David Lancaster and Peter Tulip. December 2015 – ISSN 1448-5109 (Online). Download the Paper 987. KB. We estimate both models over the period 1960:Q3 to 2015:Q1 using EViews default
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2015/2015-14/estimation.html