The following tables show select percentiles of absolute forecast errors at different
horizons for forecasts from 1993 to 2011. The estimates for the 70th
and 90th percentiles are those shown in Figure 3; other columns
are constructed in the same manner. Being a 19-year average, these estimates
are unlikely to change quickly over time. So readers can easily construct confidence
intervals about future forecasts.
Table C1: Underlying Inflation – Quantiles of Absolute Error Distribution
4-quarter change; 1993:Q1–2011:Q4
Horizon
Percentile
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
0
0.03
0.09
0.15
0.21
0.33
1
0.02
0.10
0.22
0.34
0.54
2
0.04
0.14
0.27
0.42
0.70
3
0.08
0.14
0.30
0.50
0.83
4
0.05
0.16
0.29
0.58
1.14
5
0.05
0.14
0.34
0.61
1.27
6
0.09
0.19
0.36
0.65
1.32
7
0.07
0.24
0.48
0.79
1.43
8
0.11
0.29
0.47
0.77
1.19
Table C2: CPI Inflation – Quantiles of Absolute Error Distribution
4-quarter change; 1993:Q1–2011:Q4
Horizon
Percentile
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
0
0.02
0.09
0.15
0.23
0.44
1
0.06
0.17
0.30
0.48
0.88
2
0.06
0.27
0.49
0.77
1.17
3
0.09
0.31
0.62
1.00
1.40
4
0.23
0.49
0.79
1.08
1.87
5
0.19
0.51
0.80
1.13
2.03
6
0.16
0.43
0.84
1.13
2.13
7
0.13
0.43
0.91
1.18
2.02
8
0.11
0.46
0.73
1.22
2.16
Table C3: GDP Growth – Quantiles of Absolute Error Distribution
4-quarter change; 1993:Q1–2011:Q4
Horizon
Percentile
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
0
0.11
0.31
0.55
0.76
1.19
1
0.14
0.46
0.80
1.26
1.91
2
0.25
0.58
0.95
1.38
2.02
3
0.27
0.77
1.05
1.56
2.36
4
0.36
0.72
1.19
1.50
2.25
5
0.38
0.65
0.95
1.50
2.06
6
0.15
0.54
0.93
1.45
2.32
7
0.22
0.59
0.93
1.45
2.40
8
0.15
0.68
0.95
1.50
2.46
Table C4: Unemployment Rate – Quantiles of Absolute Error Distribution
