Research Discussion Paper – RDP2012-07 Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts Abstract
RDP2012-07 – November 2012
We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals and other estimates of uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts of key macroeconomic variables. Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial explanatory power for the inflation rate but not for GDP growth.