Forecast Table – May 2021 – ‘Baseline’ Scenario
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This table provides additional detail on key macroeconomic variables presented in the ‘baseline’ scenario in the May 2021 Statement on Monetary Policy.
Dec 2020 | Jun 2021 | Dec 2021 | Jun 2022 | Dec 2022 | Jun 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross domestic product | −1.1 | 9¼ | 4¾ | 4 | 3½ | 3 |
Household consumption | −2.7 | 15½ | 5½ | 5¼ | 4 | 3 |
Dwelling investment | 0.6 | 10¾ | 4½ | −½ | ½ | 3¼ |
Business investment | −5.1 | 1¾ | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
Public demand | 6.3 | 5¼ | 4½ | 3¼ | 2 | 1¾ |
Gross national expenditure | −0.3 | 12 | 5¼ | 4¾ | 3¾ | 3 |
Imports | −9.6 | 16½ | 8¾ | 10½ | 10 | 6 |
Exports | −11.7 | 3¼ | 6 | 6¾ | 7½ | 5¼ |
Real household disposable income | 4.4 | −¾ | 1 | 2¾ | 1¾ | 1¼ |
Terms of trade | 7.3 | 19¾ | 9 | −7¾ | −8 | −5¼ |
Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP | 1.9 | 11 | 4¼ | 4¾ | 4 | 3¾ |
Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) | 6.8 | 5¼ | 5 | 4¾ | 4½ | 4½ |
Employment | −0.9 | 6¾ | 3 | 1¼ | 1¼ | 1¼ |
Wage price index | 1.4 | 1½ | 1¾ | 2 | 2¼ | 2¼ |
Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour | 5.8 | −4½ | −¼ | 1¾ | 2¼ | 2¼ |
Trimmed mean inflation | 1.2 | 1½ | 1½ | 1½ | 1¾ | 2 |
Consumer price index | 0.9 | 3¼ | 1¾ | 1¼ | 1½ | 2 |
Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA |