Forecast Table – February 2021 – ‘Baseline’ Scenario
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This table provides additional detail on key macroeconomic variables presented in the ‘baseline’ scenario in the February 2021 Statement on Monetary Policy.
Dec 2020 | Jun 2021 | Dec 2021 | Jun 2022 | Dec 2022 | Jun 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross domestic product | −2 | 8 | 3½ | 3½ | 3½ | 3 |
Household consumption | −3½ | 14 | 4 | 4½ | 4 | 3 |
Dwelling investment | −2 | 7 | 2 | −1 | 0 | 1½ |
Business investment | −8½ | −2½ | 3 | 6 | 7½ | 6 |
Public demand | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Gross national expenditure | −1 | 11 | 4 | 3½ | 3½ | 3 |
Imports | −9 | 17½ | 7½ | 8½ | 9 | 5½ |
Exports | −12½ | 2½ | 6 | 7½ | 8 | 5 |
Real household disposable income | 5 | −3 | −2 | 2½ | 2 | 2 |
Terms of trade | 5½ | 12½ | 3½ | −7 | −6 | −4 |
Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP | 1½ | 11 | 5 | 4½ | 4 | 4 |
Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) | 6.8 | 6½ | 6 | 5½ | 5½ | 5¼ |
Employment | −0.7 | 5¾ | 1¾ | 1½ | 1¼ | 1 |
Wage price index | 1¼ | 1 | 1½ | 1¾ | 1¾ | 2 |
Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour | 4 | −7¼ | −1½ | 1¼ | 1¾ | 2 |
Trimmed mean inflation | 1.2 | 1¼ | 1¼ | 1½ | 1½ | 1¾ |
Consumer price index | 0.9 | 3 | 1½ | 1½ | 1½ | 1¾ |
Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA |