RDP 9804: Stylised Facts of the Australian Labour Market 4. Conclusion

In this paper we have highlighted some of the main developments in the Australian labour market over the past 30 years. The most noteworthy development has been the rise in the aggregate unemployment rate over that period. The main factor accounting for this rise has been the increase in the unemployment rate for full-time male workers, which in turn has reflected slower employment growth in the industries that employ predominantly male full-time workers. The falling participation rate for full-time males has in fact lessened the rise in the measured unemployment rate. While employment growth for females has been stronger than that for full-time males, it has not been sufficient to offset the rapid rise in the participation rate, resulting in a rise in the female unemployment rate.

This paper has not sought to address the reasons as to why the increase in employment has not kept pace with the rise in labour market participation. That issue will be the subject of future work, in particular, the Bank's 1998 conference on ‘Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market’.

In comparing the labour market developments in the 1990s recovery with the 1980s recovery, a number of points stand out. In line with the trend over the past 20 years, the most noteworthy development is the significantly slower growth in male full-time employment. On the other hand, growth in male part-time employment has been stronger in the 1990s. The similar trend in female unemployment rates in both recoveries reflects different forces: in the 1980s, the female participation rate was rising rapidly but employment growth was also strong, whereas in the 1990s, the participation rate has been relatively flat but employment growth has also been more subdued. Finally, the sectors that were engines of employment growth in the 1980s, particularly the finance and insurance, and retail and wholesale trade sectors, have experienced substantially slower employment growth in the 1990s.