Forecast Table – November 2022
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This table provides additional detail on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables as at the November 2022 Statement on Monetary Policy.
Jun 2022 | Dec 2022 | Jun 2023 | Dec 2023 | Jun 2024 | Dec 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross domestic product | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
Household consumption | 6.0 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
Dwelling investment | −4.6 | 0.8 | 3.6 | −2.8 | −4.7 | −5.6 |
Business investment | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 3.3 |
Public demand | 5.7 | 3.7 | 0.2 | −0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
Gross national expenditure | 4.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
Imports | 10.0 | 16.6 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 |
Exports | 4.9 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
Real household disposable income | 2.1 | −2.6 | −2.6 | −1.2 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
Terms of trade | 7.5 | 1.4 | −13.7 | −7.4 | −6.0 | −4.3 |
Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP | 2.7 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.5 |
Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
Employment | 3.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Wage price index | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
Trimmed mean inflation | 4.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
Consumer price index | 6.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 |
(a) Forecasts finalised on 2 November. The forecasts are conditioned on
a path for the cash rate broadly in line with expectations derived from surveys of
professional economists and financial market pricing. Other forecast assumptions: TWI
at 62; A$ at US$0.64; Brent crude oil price at US$89bbl. The assumed rate of
population growth is broadly in line with the profile set out in the Australian
Government Budget 2022–23.
Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA |