Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2017 List of tables
Chapters
- Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
- Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
- Table 2.2: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
- Table 2.3: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
- Table 2.4: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
- Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
- Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
- Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
- Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
- Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Since previous Statement | Over the past year | |
---|---|---|
Bulk commodities | −2 | 32 |
– Iron ore | 9 | 15 |
– Coking coal | −21 | 72 |
– Thermal coal | 12 | 32 |
Rural | 0 | 4 |
Base metals | 3 | 21 |
Gold | 0 | −8 |
Brent crude oil(b) | 9 | 28 |
RBA ICP | −8 | 13 |
– Using spot prices for bulk commodities | −1 | 21 |
(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities
prices are spot prices Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA |
Policy rate Per cent | Most recent change |
||
---|---|---|---|
Euro area(a) | −0.40 | ↓ | Mar 16 |
Japan(a) | −0.10 | ↓ | Jan 16 |
United States(b) | 1.125 | ↑ | Jun 17 |
Australia | 1.50 | ↓ | Aug 16 |
Brazil | 9.25 | ↓ | Jul 17 |
Canada | 0.75 | ↑ | Jul 17 |
Chile | 2.50 | ↓ | May 17 |
India | 6.00 | ↓ | Aug 17 |
Indonesia | 4.75 | ↓ | Oct 16 |
Israel | 0.10 | ↓ | Feb 15 |
Malaysia | 3.00 | ↓ | Jul 16 |
Mexico | 7.00 | ↑ | Jun 17 |
New Zealand | 1.75 | ↓ | Nov 16 |
Norway | 0.50 | ↓ | Mar 16 |
Russia | 9.00 | ↓ | Jun 17 |
South Africa | 6.75 | ↓ | Jul 17 |
South Korea | 1.25 | ↓ | Jun 16 |
Sweden | −0.50 | ↓ | Feb 16 |
Switzerland(b) | −0.75 | ↓ | Jan 15 |
Thailand | 1.50 | ↓ | Apr 15 |
Turkey | 8.00 | ↑ | Nov 16 |
United Kingdom | 0.25 | ↓ | Aug 16 |
(a) Marginal rate paid on deposits at the central bank Sources: Central banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters |
Over 2016 | 2017 to date | |
---|---|---|
Philippine peso | 6 | 2 |
Indonesian rupiah | −2 | −1 |
Russian rouble | −14 | −2 |
Chinese renminbi | 7 | −3 |
Brazilian real | −18 | −4 |
Malaysian ringgit | 5 | −4 |
Swiss franc | 2 | −5 |
Japanese yen | −3 | −5 |
Singapore dollar | 2 | −6 |
Indian rupee | 3 | −6 |
Canadian dollar | −3 | −6 |
UK pound sterling | 19 | −7 |
New Taiwan dollar | −1 | −7 |
New Zealand dollar | −1 | −7 |
South Korean won | 3 | −7 |
Thai baht | −1 | −7 |
Australian dollar | 1 | −10 |
Swedish krona | 8 | −11 |
European euro | 3 | −11 |
Mexican peso | 21 | −14 |
Trade-weighted index | 4 | −7 |
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System |
Percentage change: | Level | ||
---|---|---|---|
End June 2016 to latest |
End March 2017 to latest |
US$ equivalent (billions) |
|
China | −5 | 2 | 3,057 |
Saudi Arabia | −12 | −2 | 491 |
Taiwan(b) | 2 | 1 | 442 |
Hong Kong | 14 | 3 | 399 |
South Korea | 3 | 1 | 371 |
India | 8 | 6 | 367 |
Brazil | 3 | 3 | 364 |
Russia | 5 | 4 | 334 |
Singapore | 7 | 3 | 264 |
Thailand | 4 | 3 | 177 |
Mexico | −2 | −2 | 166 |
Indonesia | 13 | 1 | 117 |
Malaysia | 4 | 4 | 93 |
Turkey | −16 | −3 | 84 |
(a) Data to end June for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia,
Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand; to 14 July for Malaysia; to 21
July for India, Russia and Turkey; to 1 August for Brazil Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; central banks; IMF; RBA |
Over 2016 | 2017 to date | |
---|---|---|
US dollar | −1 | 11 |
Indonesian rupiah | −3 | 9 |
Chinese renminbi | 6 | 7 |
South African rand | −12 | 7 |
Malaysian ringgit | 3 | 6 |
Swiss franc | 1 | 5 |
Japanese yen | −4 | 5 |
Singapore dollar | 1 | 4 |
Indian rupee | 1 | 4 |
Canadian dollar | −4 | 4 |
UK pound sterling | 18 | 3 |
New Zealand dollar | −3 | 3 |
South Korean won | 1 | 3 |
Thai baht | −2 | 3 |
European euro | 2 | −2 |
Trade-weighted index | 2 | 5 |
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA |
March quarter 2017 |
December quarter 2016 |
Year to March quarter 2017 |
|
---|---|---|---|
GDP | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
Domestic final demand | 0.3 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
– Consumption | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.3 |
– Dwelling investment | −4.4 | 1.9 | −2.5 |
– Mining investment | 3.7 | 1.5 | −17.5 |
– Non-mining investment | −0.4 | 1.4 | 4.3 |
– Public demand | 0.4 | 1.0 | 4.0 |
Change in inventories(a) | 0.4 | −0.3 | 0.6 |
Exports | −1.6 | 3.7 | 5.6 |
Imports | 1.6 | 1.9 | 7.9 |
Mining activity(b) | 1.0 | 2.6 | 3.6 |
Non-mining activity(b) | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
Nominal GDP | 2.3 | 3.2 | 7.7 |
Real gross domestic income | 1.7 | 3.1 | 6.5 |
Terms of trade | 6.6 | 9.6 | 24.8 |
(a) Contribution to GDP growth Sources: ABS; RBA |
Three-month ended | Year-ended | ||
---|---|---|---|
Mar 2017 | June 2017 | June 2017 | |
Total credit | 0.9 | 1.5 | 5.4 |
– Housing | 1.7 | 1.6 | 6.6 |
– Owner-occupier | 1.5 | 1.6 | 6.2 |
– Investor | 2.0 | 1.5 | 7.4 |
– Personal | −0.5 | −0.3 | −1.4 |
– Business | −0.4 | 1.5 | 4.4 |
Broad money | 1.9 | 2.1 | 7.7 |
(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted Sources: APRA; RBA |
Interest rate Per cent |
Change since November 2016 Basis points |
Change since April 2016 Basis points |
|
---|---|---|---|
Housing loans | |||
– Variable principal-and-interest rate(a)(b) | |||
– Owner-occupier | 4.41 | −4 | −36 |
– Investor | 4.98 | 29 | −3 |
– Variable interest-only rate(a)(b) | |||
– Owner-occupier | 4.98 | 52 | 18 |
– Investor | 5.46 | 73 | 43 |
– Fixed principal-and-interest rate (a)(c)(d) | |||
– Owner-occupier | 4.14 | 3 | −29 |
– Investor | 4.45 | 20 | −21 |
– Average outstanding rate(d) | 4.63 | 13 | −20 |
Personal loans | |||
– Variable rate(e) | 11.46 | 18 | 10 |
Small business | |||
– Term loans variable rate(f) | 6.43 | 4 | −32 |
– Overdraft variable rate(f) | 7.31 | 4 | −32 |
– Fixed rate(c)(f) | 5.29 | −1 | −13 |
– Average outstanding rate(d) | 5.36 | 1 | −32 |
Large business | |||
Average outstanding rate(d) | 3.49 | 0 | −48 |
(a) Includes announced changes to new lending to August 2017 Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar; RBA |
Quarterly(a) | Year-ended(b) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
June quarter 2017 | March quarter 2017 | June quarter 2017 | March quarter 2017 | |
Consumer Price Index | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
Seasonally adjusted CPI | 0.4 | 0.6 | ||
– Tradables | −0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
– Tradables (excl volatile items)(c) | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
– Non-tradables | 0.7 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
Selected underlying measures | ||||
Trimmed mean | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Weighted median | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
CPI excl volatile items(c) | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally
adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA
using seasonal factors published by the ABS Sources: ABS; RBA |
Year-ended | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jun 2017 | Dec 2017 | Jun 2018 | Dec 2018 | Jun 2019 | Dec 2019 | |
GDP growth | 1¾ | 2–3 | 2½–3½ | 2¾–3¾ | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Unemployment rate(b) | 5.6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–6 |
CPI inflation | 1.9 | 1½–2½ | 1¾–2¾ | 1¾–2¾ | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Underlying inflation | 1¾ | 1½–2½ | 1½–2½ | 1½–2½ | 2–3 | 2–3 |
Year-average | ||||||
2016/17 | 2017 | 2017/18 | 2018 | 2018/19 | 2019 | |
GDP growth | 2 | 1¾–2¾ | 2¼–3¼ | 2½–3½ | 2¾–3¾ | 2¾–3¾ |
(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.80, TWI at 67 and Brent crude
oil price at US$53 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data Sources: ABS; RBA |