Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2016 List of tables

Chapters

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, three-month-average prices, per cent
  Since previous Statement Over the past year
Bulk commodities 37 42
– Iron ore 7 9
– Coking coal 95 120
– Thermal coal 40 41
Rural −1 1
Base metals 5 5
Gold 2 16
Brent crude oil(b) 2 0
RBA ICP 9 7
– using spot prices for bulk commodities 20 21

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodity prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA

Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  Policy rate
Per cent
  Most recent change
Euro area(a) −0.40 Mar 16
Japan(a) −0.10 Jan 16
United States(b) 0.375 Dec 15
Australia 1.50 Aug 16
Brazil 14.00 Oct 16
Canada 0.50 Jul 15
Chile 3.50 Dec 15
India 6.25 Oct 16
Indonesia 4.75 Oct 16
Israel 0.10 Feb 15
Malaysia 3.00 Jul 16
Mexico 4.75 Sep 16
New Zealand 2.00 Aug 16
Norway 0.50 Mar 16
Russia 10.00 Sep 16
South Africa 7.00 Mar 16
South Korea 1.25 Jun 16
Sweden −0.50 Feb 16
Switzerland(b) −0.75 Jan 15
Thailand 1.50 Apr 15
Turkey 7.50 Feb 15
United Kingdom 0.25 Aug 16

(a) Marginal rate paid on deposits at the central bank
(b) Midpoint of target range

Sources: Central Banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters

Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
  2016 to date
United States – S&P 500 3
Euro area – STOXX −7
United Kingdom – FTSE 10
Japan – Nikkei −10
Canada – TSE 300 12
Australia – ASX 200 −1
China – MSCI All China −7
MSCI indices  
– Emerging Asia 8
– Latin America 27
– Emerging Europe 7
– World 2

Source: Bloomberg

Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2015 2016 to date
UK pound sterling 6 20
Mexican peso 17 13
Swedish krona 8 6
Chinese renminbi 5 4
Philippine peso 5 3
Indian rupee 5 1
European euro 11 −2
South Korean won 8 −2
Singapore dollar 7 −2
Malaysian ringgit 22 −3
Swiss franc 1 −3
Thai baht 10 −3
Canadian dollar 19 −3
New Taiwan dollar 4 −4
Australian dollar 12 −5
Indonesian rupiah 11 −5
New Zealand dollar 14 −6
Russian rouble 24 −12
Japanese yen 0 −14
Brazilian real 50 −18
Trade-weighted index 10 0

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
  Percentage change since: Level
End September 2015 End June 2016 US$ equivalent (billions)
China −10 −1 3,166
Saudi Arabia −15 −3 545
Taiwan(b) 2 1 437
South Korea 2 2 368
Brazil 1 1 354
Hong Kong 7 1 354
India 5 1 342
Russia 2 0 316
Singapore 1 2 251
Thailand 16 1 171
Mexico −1 1 171
Indonesia 14 6 109
Turkey 0 0 100
Malaysia 5 1 90

(a) Data to end August for Mexico and Saudi Arabia; to end September for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand; to 14 October for India, Malaysia, Russia and Turkey; and to 21 October for Brazil
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; Central Banks; IMF; RBA

Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over 2015 2016 to date
UK pound sterling −6 26
Chinese renminbi −7 9
Indian rupee −7 6
US dollar −11 5
European euro −1 3
South Korean won −4 3
Singapore dollar −5 3
Malaysian ringgit 9 2
Swiss franc −10 2
Thai baht −2 2
Canadian dollar 6 2
Indonesian rupiah −1 −1
New Zealand dollar 2 −1
South African rand 19 −9
Japanese yen −11 −9
Trade-weighted index −6 4

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Year average, per cent
  2015/16 2014/15
GDP 2.8 2.4
Domestic final demand 1.2 1.1
– Private demand(a) 0.6 1.2
– Consumption 2.9 2.6
– Dwelling investment 9.8 7.8
– Mining investment −27.5 −20.1
– Non-mining investment(a) 1.0 6.9
– Public demand(a) 3.5 0.6
Change in inventories(b) −0.1 0.3
Exports 6.7 6.7
Imports −0.3 1.2
Mining activity −2.0 −3.4
Non-mining activity 3.5 3.4
Nominal GDP 2.3 1.7
Real gross domestic income 0.6 0.1

(a) RBA estimates
(b) Contribution to GDP growth

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
  Three-month ended Year-ended
June 2016 Sep 2016 Sep 2016
Total credit 1.1 1.2 5.4
– Housing 1.5 1.6 6.4
– Owner-occupier 1.6 1.6 7.3
– Investor 1.1 1.6 4.8
– Personal −0.3 −0.5 −1.3
– Business 0.8 0.6 4.7
Broad money 1.1 1.3 5.8

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA

Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Lending Rates
  Interest rate Change since July 2016 Change since December 2015
  Per cent Basis points Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a)(d)
– Owner-occupier 5.26 −13 −36
– Investor 5.50 −13 −39
– Package variable rate(b)(d)
– Owner-occupier 4.51 −8 −31
– Investor 4.75 −8 −36
– Fixed rate(c)(d)
– Owner-occupier 4.02 −26 −41
– Investor 4.13 −35 −57
– Average outstanding rate(d) 4.53 −12 −33
Personal loans
– Variable rate(e) 11.27 −10 1
Small business
– Term loans variable rate(f) 6.39 −11 −21
– Overdraft variable rate(f) 7.27 −11 −21
– Fixed rate(c)(f) 5.22 −4 −21
– Average outstanding rate(d) 5.34 −15 −29
Large business
Average outstanding rate(d) 3.51 −20 −40

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) RBA estimates
(e) Weighted average of variable rate products
(f) Residentially secured, average of the major banks' advertised rates

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; RBA

Table 4.3: Business Loan Approvals by Industry(a)
Percentage change
  Year-ended Industry share of credit
  September quarter 2016 June 2016
Property, business and other services −10 48
Finance and Insurance −6 19
Wholesale and retail trade and transport 8 13
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1 7
Manufacturing −27 5
Mining −60 4
Construction 10 4
Total −8 100

(a) Loan approvals by industry are gross of refinancing and reductions

Sources: APRA; RBA

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
  Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
September quarter 2016 June quarter 2016 September quarter 2016 June quarter 2016
Consumer Price Index 0.7 0.4 1.3 1.0
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.4 0.6
– Tradables 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.0
– Tradables (excl. volatile items and tobacco)(c) −0.2 −0.3 0.0 0.1
– Non-tradables 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.6
Selected underlying measures        
Trimmed mean 0.4 0.5 1.7 1.7
Weighted median 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.5
CPI excl. volatile items(c) 0.3 0.4 1.7 1.6

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
  Year-ended
Jun 2016 Dec 2016 Jun 2017 Dec 2017 Jun 2018 Dec 2018
GDP growth 3.3 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 3–4
CPI inflation 1.0 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½
Underlying inflation 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½ 1½–2½
  Year-average
  2015/16 2016 2016/17 2017 2017/18 2018
GDP growth 2.8 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½

(a) Technical assumptions include A$=US$0.77, TWI at 65 and Brent crude oil price at US$50 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data

Sources: ABS; RBA