Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2013 List of tables

Chapters

  • Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth
  • Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  • Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
  • Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves
  • Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 3.2: Housing Price Growth
  • Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
  • Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
  • Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Boxes

  • Table C1: Output and Employment in Household Services
Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth(a)
SDR, 3-month-average prices, per cent
Since previous
Statement
Over the past
year
Bulk commodities 4 10
– Iron ore 7 25
– Coking coal 2 −11
– Thermal coal −4 −8
Rural −2 −8
– Beef 1 −4
– Cotton −4 8
– Wheat −1 −11
– Wool 3 0
Base metals 0 −7
– Aluminium −1 −8
– Copper 1 −9
– Lead 1 2
– Nickel −2 −16
– Zinc 1 −1
Gold −1 −21
Brent oil(b) 5 −2
RBA ICP −1 −4
– using spot prices for bulk commodities 1 0

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS Energy Publishing; RBA

Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
Policy rate Per cent Most
recent
change
Cumulative change
in current cycle(a) Basis points
Euro area 0.50 May 13 −100
Japan(b) na na
United States 0.125 Dec 08 −512.5
Australia 2.50 Aug 13 −225
Brazil 9.50 Oct 13 225
Canada 1.00 Sep 10 75
Chile 4.75 Oct 13 −50
China 6.00 Jul 12 −56
India 7.75 Oct 13 50
Indonesia 7.25 Sep 13 150
Israel 1.00 Sep 13 −225
Malaysia 3.00 May 11 100
Mexico 3.50 Oct 13 −475
New Zealand 2.50 Mar 11 −50
Norway 1.50 Mar 12 −75
Russia(c) 5.50 Sep 12 25
South Africa 5.00 Jul 12 −700
South Korea 2.50 May 13 −75
Sweden 1.00 Dec 12 −100
Switzerland 0.00 Aug 11 −275
Taiwan 1.875 Jun 11 62.5
Thailand 2.50 May 13 −100
United Kingdom 0.50 Mar 09 −525
Current monthly
asset purchases
Most recent
change
Assets on balance sheet
Per cent of GDP
United States $85 billion   Sep 12 23.0
Japan ¥6 trillion   Apr 13 44.9
United Kingdom 0   Jul 12 25.1

(a) Current rate relative to most recent trough or peak
(b) Since April 2013, the Bank of Japan's main operating target has been the money base
(c) The central bank of Russia changed the interest rate it uses as its policy rate in September 2013

Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; central banks

Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Since end
2012
Since previous
Statement
United States
– S&P 500 24 5
Euro area
– STOXX 18 9
United Kingdom
– FTSE 14 4
Japan
– Nikkei 38 4
Canada
– TSE 300 8 8
Australia
– ASX 200 17 8
China
– China A −6 5
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia 2 8
– Latin America −5 7
– Emerging Europe 2 9
World 19 5

Source: Bloomberg

Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over the past year Since end August
Indonesian rupiah 19 4
Japanese yen 23 1
South African rand 19 0
Chinese renminbi −2 0
Canadian dollar 5 −1
New Taiwan dollar 1 −2
Mexican peso 1 −2
Swiss franc −3 −2
Swedish krona −3 −2
European euro −5 −2
Singapore dollar 2 −3
Thai baht 2 −3
Philippine peso 5 −3
UK pound sterling −1 −4
Malaysian ringgit 4 −4
Brazilian real 12 −4
South Korean won −3 −4
Indian rupee 15 −6
Australian dollar 9 −7
New Zealand dollar −1 −8
Majors TWI 3 −2
Broad TWI 2 −2

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves
As at end October 2013
Percentage change since: Level
End April End August US$ equivalent
(billions)
China(b) 4 3 3,663
Russia(b) 1 3 462
Taiwan(a) 3 2 416
Brazil 0 3 367
South Korea 4 4 332
India −3 3 255
Thailand(b) −3 2 163
Turkey −1 4 111
Indonesia −10 5 90

(a) Official reserve assets (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)
(b) End September

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; IMF; RBA

Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Since April peak in TWI(a) Since August trough in TWI(b)
Indonesian rupiah 6 18
South African rand 4 11
Indian rupee 4 10
Canadian dollar −7 7
Japanese yen −11 7
US dollar −10 7
Thai baht −3 6
Chinese renminbi −11 6
Malaysian ringgit −5 5
Swiss franc −12 5
European euro −13 5
Singapore dollar −9 4
UK pound sterling −14 2
South Korean won −16 2
New Zealand dollar −8 0
TWI −10 6

(a) 11 April 2013
(b) 6 August 2013

Sources: Bloomberg; WM/Reuters

Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
June quarter 2013 Year to June quarter 2013
Domestic final demand 0.3 0.6
– Private demand 0.0 1.3
– Public demand 1.6 −1.8
Change in inventories(a) 0.2 −0.1
Gross national expenditure 0.6 0.5
Exports 1.3 6.4
Imports 1.6 −1.8
GDP 0.6 2.6
Nominal GDP 0.9 3.0
Real gross domestic income 0.6 1.5

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 3.2: Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to
September 2013
3 months to
June 2013
Year to
September 2013
Capital cities
ABS(a),(b) 1.9 2.7 7.6
APM(b) 1.9 2.4 7.0
RP Data-Rismark 2.8 1.1 5.5
Regional areas
APM(b) 1.3 0.5 3.4
RP Data-Rismark(a) 0.2 0.1 0.8

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
Quarterly Year-ended
Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Sep 2013
Total credit 1.0 1.0 3.3
– Owner-occupier housing 1.0 1.1 4.2
– Investor housing 1.6 1.7 6.1
– Personal 0.1 0.5 1.0
– Business 0.9 0.4 1.1
Broad money 1.8 0.8 5.2

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA

Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Level at
6 November 2013
Change since
July 2013
Change
since end
October 2011
Per cent Basis points Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) 5.93 −26 −186
– Package variable rate(b) 5.08 −28 −195
– Fixed rate(c) 5.24 7 −127
Personal loans
– Variable rate 11.59 −4 −95
Small business (variable rates)
Residentially secured, advertised
– Term loans 7.10 −25 −190
– Overdraft 7.97 −25 −188
Average rate(d) 6.80 −26 −183
Large business
Average rate(d)
(variable rate and bill funding)
4.66 −21 −238

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package variable rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) Rates on outstanding, business lending (includes discount)

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
September quarter 2013 June
quarter 2013
September quarter 2013 June
quarter 2013
Consumer Price Index 1.2 0.4 2.2 2.4
Seasonally adjusted CPI 1.0 0.6
– Tradables 1.0 0.1 −0.1 −0.7
– Tradables
(excl volatile items and tobacco)(c)
0.2 0.1 −1.1 −1.3
– Non-tradables 0.9 0.8 3.6 4.3
Selected underlying measures        
Trimmed mean 0.7 0.6 2.3 2.3
Weighted median 0.6 0.6 2.3 2.5
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.7 0.7 2.4 2.6

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median measures
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to June 2014 Year to June 2015
May 2013 August 2013 November 2013 August 2013 November 2013
Market economists 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.5
Union officials 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
June 2013 Dec 2013 June 2014 Dec 2014 Jun 2015 Dec 2015
GDP growth 2.6 2–3 2¼–3¼ 2¾–4¼
Non-farm GDP growth 2.7 2–3 2¼–3¼ 2¾–4¼
CPI inflation(b) 2.4 2–3 2–3 1½ –2½
Underlying inflation(b) 2–3 2–3 1¾ –2¾
Year-average
2012/13 2013 2013/14 2014 2014/15 2015
GDP growth 2.6 2–3 2–3 2½ –3½

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.95, TWI at 72 and Brent crude oil price at US$104 per barrel
(b) Based on current legislation for the price of carbon

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table C1: Output and Employment in Household Services(a)
Per cent
Output share (nominal) Employment share (hours)
1989/90 2012/13 1989/90 2012/13
Household services 15 19 24 29
Health 5 8 7 10
Education 5 5 6 7
Hospitality 2 3 5 6
Art & recreation 1 1 1 2
Other services 2 2 5 4

(a) Excludes ‘ownership of dwellings’

Sources: ABS; RBA