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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2012

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1.1: World GDP Growth

Table 1.2: Commodity Price Growth

Table 2.1: Policy Rates

Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices

Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies

Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves

Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

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Boxes

Table B1: Projections for Fiscal Consolidation

Table D1: Covered Bond Programs of the Major Banks

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Table 1.1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent
  2010 2011 2012 2013
    Estimate IMF forecasts
(a) Based on the IMF forecasts for the newly industrialised Asian economies and the ASEAN-5 categories
(b) Weighted using GDP at PPP exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares
Sources: IMF; RBA
United States 3.0 1.7 1.8 2.2
Euro area 1.9 1.6 −0.5 0.8
Japan 4.4 −0.9 1.7 1.6
China 10.4 9.2 8.2 8.8
Other east Asia(a) 7.7 4.5 4.1 4.7
India 9.9 7.4 7.0 7.3
World(b) 5.2 3.8 3.3 3.9
Australia's trading partners(c) 6.9 4.4 4.4 4.9
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Table 1.2: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, per cent
  Change
since
previous
Statement 		Change
over
the past
year
(a)  RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP) components except oil and bulk commodities; latest available
(b)  Spot prices
(c)  Average of WTI and Tapis crude oil prices
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Bulk commodities(b)    
– Iron ore 24 −24
– Coking coal −11 −35
– Thermal coal 3 −3
Rural 1 −12
– Beef 2 2
– Cotton −4 −49
– Wheat 0 −23
– Wool 5 4
Base metals 10 −14
– Aluminium 9 −11
– Copper 11 −14
– Lead 11 −16
– Nickel 18 −24
– Zinc 12 −14
Gold 1 28
Oil(c) 6 20
– US$ terms 4 19
RBA ICP 1 5
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Table 2.1: Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent		 Most
recent
change 		Change from
2011 peak
Basis points
Source: central banks
Euro area 1.00 ↓ Dec 11 −50
Japan 0.05 ↓ Oct 10 –
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 –
Brazil 10.50 ↓ Jan 12 −200
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 –
China 6.56 ↑ Jul 11 –
India 8.50 ↑ Oct 11 –
Indonesia 6.00 ↓ Nov 11 −75
Israel 2.50 ↓ Jan 12 −75
Malaysia 3.00 ↑ May 11 –
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09 –
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Mar 11 −50
Norway 1.75 ↓ Dec 11 −50
Russia 8.00 ↓ Dec 11 −25
South Africa 5.50 ↓ Nov 10 –
South Korea 3.25 ↑ Jun 11 –
Sweden 1.75 ↓ Dec 11 −25
Switzerland 0.00 ↓ Aug 11 −25
Taiwan 1.875 ↑ Jun 11 –
Thailand 3.00 ↓ Jan 12 −50
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 –
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Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over
2011		 Since
previous
Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States    
– Dow Jones 6 7
– S&P 500 0 7
– NASDAQ −2 8
Euro area    
– STOXX −18 7
United Kingdom    
– FTSE −6 6
Japan    
– Nikkei −17 4
Canada    
– TSE 300 −11 0
Australia    
– ASX 200 −15 3
China    
– China A −22 −6
MSCI indices    
– Emerging Asia −16 7
– Latin America −13 8
– Emerging Europe −19 5
– World −9 7
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Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar
against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Over
past
year		 Since
previous
Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
European euro 4 4
Swiss franc −5 4
UK pound sterling 2 1
Swedish krona 3 1
Indian rupee 8 0
Thai baht 0 0
Indonesian rupiah 0 0
Chinese renminbi −4 −1
Brazilian real 4 −1
Canadian dollar 0 −1
South Korean won 0 −1
Japanese yen −6 −1
Singapore dollar −2 −1
Philippine peso −3 −2
New Taiwan dollar 2 −2
Australian dollar −6 −4
South African rand 5 −4
Malaysian ringgit −1 −4
Mexican peso 5 −5
New Zealand dollar −7 −5
Majors TWI 0 1
Broad TWI 0 −1
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Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves
As at end December 2011
Three-month-ended change Level
  US$ equivalent
(billions)		 Per cent US$ equivalent
(billions)
(a) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)
Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; IMF; RBA
China(a) −21 −1 3,181
Japan 98 9 1,221
Russia −16  −4 435
Taiwan −4 −1 386
Brazil 2 1 343
South Korea 1 1 298
India −13 −5 263
Thailand −5 −3 165
Indonesia −4 −4 103
Turkey −9 −11 77
Chile 4 11 40
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Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian
Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Over
past
year		 Since
previous
Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
European euro 9 8
Swiss franc 1 8
UK pound sterling 8 5
Indian rupee 16 4
Thai baht 6 4
US dollar 6 4
Indonesian rupiah 6 3
Chinese renminbi 2 3
Canadian dollar 6 3
South Korean won 7 2
Japanese yen −1 2
Singapore dollar 4 2
Malaysian ringgit 6 −1
South African rand 12 −1
New Zealand dollar −1 −1
TWI 5 3
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Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth Per cent
  September
quarter 2011		 Year to September
quarter 2011
Domestic final demand 2.1 4.6
– Private demand 3.6 6.7
– Public demand −2.8 −1.9
Change in inventories(a) −0.8 0.2
GNE 1.2 4.7
Net exports(a) −0.6 −2.7
GDP 1.0 2.5
Nominal GDP 1.6 6.1
(a) Contribution to GDP growth
Source: ABS
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Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
  3 months to September 2011 3 months to December 2011 Year to
December 2011
(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Capital cities
ABS(a),(b) −1.9 −1.0 −4.8
APM(b) −1.5 −0.2 −2.8
RP Data-Rismark −0.8 −0.5 −3.6
Regional areas
APM(b) −1.5 −0.5 −2.2
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.5 −0.5 −2.9
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Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates Per cent
    Change since:
Level at
end January 2012		 End
October 2011		 End
November 2010
(a) Average of the major bank's discounted package rates on $250,000 full-doc loans
(b) Rates on outstanding, as opposed to new, business lending
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Housing loans(a) 6.59 −0.44 −0.56
Personal loans  12.97 −0.24 0.17
Small business
Residentially secured
– Term loans 8.52 −0.48 −0.48
– Overdraft  9.38 −0.48 −0.48
Average rate(b)  8.25 −0.48 −0.56
Large business
Average actual rate(b) (variable-rate and bill funding) 6.70 −0.26 −0.21
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Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
  Average monthly growth Year to
December 2011
September
quarter 2011		 December
quarter 2011
Source: RBA
Total credit 0.4 0.3 3.5
– Owner-occupier housing 0.5 0.4 5.7
– Investor housing 0.4 0.3 4.8
– Personal −0.4 −0.1 −1.0
– Business 0.3 0.2 1.3
Broad money 0.9 0.5 7.4
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Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation Per cent
Quarterly   Year-ended
September
quarter 2011		 December
quarter 2011		 September
quarter 2011		 December
quarter 2011
(a) Year-ended inflation rates are based on non-seasonally adjusted data
(b) Quarterly data are calculated by the RBA, based on seasonal factors for components from the ABS; year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel
Sources: ABS; RBA
Consumer Price Index 0.6 0.0   3.5 3.1
Seasonally adjusted CPI(a) 0.5 0.2 3.5 3.1
– Tradables (b) 0.0 −0.9   3.3 1.8
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco)(b)		 −0.2 −0.6   −1.4 −1.1
– Non-tradables
(excl deposit & loan facilities)(b)		 0.8 0.9   3.5 3.7
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.4 0.6   2.4 2.6
Weighted median 0.4 0.5   2.7 2.6
CPI excl volatile items(b),(c) 0.5 0.5   2.3 2.5
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Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations(a)
Per cent
  Year to December 2012 Year to December 2013
  August
2011		 November
2011		 February
2012		 November
2011		 February
2012
(a) Excluding carbon price effect
Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre
Market economists 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.7
Union officials 3.1 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.0
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Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
  Year-ended
  Dec
2011		 June
2012		 Dec
2012		 June
2013		 Dec
2013		 June
2014

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.07, TWI at 78, Tapis crude oil price at US$125 per barrel
Sources: ABS; RBA
GDP growth 2¾ 3½ 3–3½ 3–3½ 3–4 3–4
CPI inflation 3.1 1¾ 3 3¼ 2½ 2½–3
Underlying inflation 2½ 2¼ 2¾ 2¾ 2½ 2½–3
CPI inflation
(excl carbon price)		 3.1 1¾ 2½ 2½ 2½ 2½–3
Underlying inflation
(excl carbon price)		 2½ 2¼ 2½ 2½ 2½ 2½–3
Year-average
2011 2011/12 2012 2012/13 2013 2013/14
GDP growth 2 3¼ 3½ 3–3½ 3–3½ 3–4
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Table B1: Projections for Fiscal Consolidation
  Net
debt		 Budget balance   Change in budget balance
2011 to 2013
  Per cent of GDP   Percentage points of GDP
  2011 2011 2013   Total Cyclically adjusted
primary balance(a)
(a) The budget balance excluding cyclical influences (automatic stabilisers), interest payments and one-off items; per cent of potential GDP
(b) Federal Government budget positions only; data are for fiscal year
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; IMF; OECD; RBA
Euro area 61 −4.3 −2.9   1.4 2.3
– Germany 51 −1.1 −0.1   1.0 1.3
– France 63 −5.7 −4.4   1.3 1.5
– Italy 100 −3.9 −2.3   1.6 3.9
– Spain 46 −8.0 −6.3   1.7 3.4
United States 74 −9.5 −6.4   3.1 2.6
Federal law(b) 62 −8.7 −3.7   5.0 5.1
Japan 128 −10.1 −8.8   1.3 0.5
United Kingdom 62 −8.6 −6.5   2.1 2.8
Canada 34 −4.9 −3.6   1.3 1.2
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Table D1: Covered Bond Programs of the Major Banks
Issuer Program size
(A$ billion)		 Issuance to date
(A$ billion)		 Tenor
(years)		 Currency
Source: RBA
ANZ 20 3.5 3, 5, 7, 10, 11 CHF, EUR, NOK, USD
CBA 30 6.4 5, 10, 15, 18 AUD, EUR, GBP, NOK, USD
NAB 20 2.8 3, 5, 10, 15 EUR, GBP, NOK
WBC 20 4.5 5, 10 AUD, NOK, USD
Total 90 17.3    
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