Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2012 List of tables

Chapters

Boxes

  • Table B1: Projections for Fiscal Consolidation
  • Table D1: Covered Bond Programs of the Major Banks
Table 1.1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent
2010 2011 2012 2013
Estimate IMF forecasts
United States 3.0 1.7 1.8 2.2
Euro area 1.9 1.6 −0.5 0.8
Japan 4.4 −0.9 1.7 1.6
China 10.4 9.2 8.2 8.8
Other east Asia(a) 7.7 4.5 4.1 4.7
India 9.9 7.4 7.0 7.3
World(b) 5.2 3.8 3.3 3.9
Australia's trading partners(c) 6.9 4.4 4.4 4.9

(a) Based on the IMF forecasts for the newly industrialised Asian economies and the ASEAN-5 categories
(b) Weighted using GDP at PPP exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares

Sources: IMF; RBA

Table 1.2: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, per cent
  Change
since
previous

Statement
Change
over
the past
year
Bulk commodities(b)    
– Iron ore 24 −24
– Coking coal −11 −35
– Thermal coal 3 −3
Rural 1 −12
– Beef 2 2
– Cotton −4 −49
– Wheat 0 −23
– Wool 5 4
Base metals 10 −14
– Aluminium 9 −11
– Copper 11 −14
– Lead 11 −16
– Nickel 18 −24
– Zinc 12 −14
Gold 1 28
Oil(c) 6 20
– US$ terms 4 19
RBA ICP 1 5

(a)  RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP) components except oil and bulk commodities; latest available
(b)  Spot prices
(c)  Average of WTI and Tapis crude oil prices

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 2.1: Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent
Most
recent
change
Change from
2011 peak

Basis points
Euro area 1.00 Dec 11 −50
Japan 0.05 Oct 10
United States 0.125 Dec 08
Brazil 10.50 Jan 12 −200
Canada 1.00 Sep 10
China 6.56 Jul 11
India 8.50 Oct 11
Indonesia 6.00 Nov 11 −75
Israel 2.50 Jan 12 −75
Malaysia 3.00 May 11
Mexico 4.50 Jul 09
New Zealand 2.50 Mar 11 −50
Norway 1.75 Dec 11 −50
Russia 8.00 Dec 11 −25
South Africa 5.50 Nov 10
South Korea 3.25 Jun 11
Sweden 1.75 Dec 11 −25
Switzerland 0.00 Aug 11 −25
Taiwan 1.875 Jun 11
Thailand 3.00 Jan 12 −50
United Kingdom 0.50 Mar 09
Source: central banks
Table 2.2: Changes in International
Share Prices
Per cent
Over
2011
Since
previous
Statement
United States    
– Dow Jones 6 7
– S&P 500 0 7
– NASDAQ −2 8
Euro area    
– STOXX −18 7
United Kingdom    
– FTSE −6 6
Japan    
– Nikkei −17 4
Canada    
– TSE 300 −11 0
Australia    
– ASX 200 −15 3
China    
– China A −22 −6
MSCI indices    
– Emerging Asia −16 7
– Latin America −13 8
– Emerging Europe −19 5
– World −9 7
Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar
against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over
past
year
Since
previous
Statement
European euro 4 4
Swiss franc −5 4
UK pound sterling 2 1
Swedish krona 3 1
Indian rupee 8 0
Thai baht 0 0
Indonesian rupiah 0 0
Chinese renminbi −4 −1
Brazilian real 4 −1
Canadian dollar 0 −1
South Korean won 0 −1
Japanese yen −6 −1
Singapore dollar −2 −1
Philippine peso −3 −2
New Taiwan dollar 2 −2
Australian dollar −6 −4
South African rand 5 −4
Malaysian ringgit −1 −4
Mexican peso 5 −5
New Zealand dollar −7 −5
Majors TWI 0 1
Broad TWI 0 −1
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves
As at end December 2011
Three-month-ended change Level
US$ equivalent
(billions)
Per cent US$ equivalent
(billions)
China(a) −21 −1 3,181
Japan 98 9 1,221
Russia −16  −4 435
Taiwan −4 −1 386
Brazil 2 1 343
South Korea 1 1 298
India −13 −5 263
Thailand −5 −3 165
Indonesia −4 −4 103
Turkey −9 −11 77
Chile 4 11 40

(a) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; IMF; RBA

Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Over past year Since previous Statement
European euro 9 8
Swiss franc 1 8
UK pound sterling 8 5
Indian rupee 16 4
Thai baht 6 4
US dollar 6 4
Indonesian rupiah 6 3
Chinese renminbi 2 3
Canadian dollar 6 3
South Korean won 7 2
Japanese yen −1 2
Singapore dollar 4 2
Malaysian ringgit 6 −1
South African rand 12 −1
New Zealand dollar −1 −1
TWI 5 3
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
September
quarter 2011
Year to September
quarter 2011
Domestic final demand 2.1 4.6
– Private demand 3.6 6.7
– Public demand −2.8 −1.9
Change in inventories(a) −0.8 0.2
GNE 1.2 4.7
Net exports(a) −0.6 −2.7
GDP 1.0 2.5
Nominal GDP 1.6 6.1

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to
September 2011
3 months to
December 2011
Year to
December 2011
Capital cities
ABS(a),(b) −1.9 −1.0 −4.8
APM(b) −1.5 −0.2 −2.8
RP Data-Rismark −0.8 −0.5 −3.6
Regional areas
APM(b) −1.5 −0.5 −2.2
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.5 −0.5 −2.9

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Change since:
Level at
end January 2012
End
October 2011
End
November 2010
Housing loans(a) 6.59 −0.44 −0.56
Personal loans  12.97 −0.24 0.17
Small business
Residentially secured
– Term loans 8.52 −0.48 −0.48
– Overdraft  9.38 −0.48 −0.48
Average rate(b)  8.25 −0.48 −0.56
Large business
Average actual rate(b) (variable-rate and bill funding) 6.70 −0.26 −0.21

(a) Average of the major bank's discounted package rates on $250,000 full-doc loans
(b) Rates on outstanding, as opposed to new, business lending

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
Average monthly growth Year to
December 2011
September
quarter 2011
December
quarter 2011
Total credit 0.4 0.3 3.5
– Owner-occupier housing 0.5 0.4 5.7
– Investor housing 0.4 0.3 4.8
– Personal −0.4 −0.1 −1.0
– Business 0.3 0.2 1.3
Broad money 0.9 0.5 7.4
Source: RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly Year-ended
September
quarter 2011
December
quarter 2011
September
quarter 2011
December
quarter 2011
Consumer Price Index 0.6 0.0   3.5 3.1
Seasonally adjusted CPI(a) 0.5 0.2 3.5 3.1
– Tradables (b) 0.0 −0.9   3.3 1.8
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco)(b)
−0.2 −0.6   −1.4 −1.1
– Non-tradables
(excl deposit & loan facilities)(b)
0.8 0.9   3.5 3.7
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.4 0.6   2.4 2.6
Weighted median 0.4 0.5   2.7 2.6
CPI excl volatile items(b),(c) 0.5 0.5   2.3 2.5

(a) Year-ended inflation rates are based on non-seasonally adjusted data
(b) Quarterly data are calculated by the RBA, based on seasonal factors for components from the ABS; year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations(a)
Per cent
Year to December 2012 Year to December 2013
August
2011
November
2011
February
2012
November
2011
February
2012
Market economists 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.7
Union officials 3.1 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.0

(a) Excluding carbon price effect

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
Dec
2011
June
2012
Dec
2012
June
2013
Dec
2013
June
2014
GDP growth 3–3½ 3–3½ 3–4 3–4
CPI inflation 3.1 3 2½–3
Underlying inflation 2½–3
CPI inflation
(excl carbon price)
3.1 2½–3
Underlying inflation
(excl carbon price)
2½–3
Year-average
2011 2011/12 2012 2012/13 2013 2013/14
GDP growth 2 3–3½ 3–3½ 3–4

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.07, TWI at 78, Tapis crude oil price at US$125 per barrel
Sources: ABS; RBA

Table B1: Projections for Fiscal Consolidation
Net debt Budget balance Change in budget balance
2011 to 2013
Per cent of GDP Percentage points of GDP
2011 2011 2013 Total Cyclically adjusted
primary balance(a)
Euro area 61 −4.3 −2.9   1.4 2.3
– Germany 51 −1.1 −0.1   1.0 1.3
– France 63 −5.7 −4.4   1.3 1.5
– Italy 100 −3.9 −2.3   1.6 3.9
– Spain 46 −8.0 −6.3   1.7 3.4
United States 74 −9.5 −6.4   3.1 2.6
Federal law(b) 62 −8.7 −3.7   5.0 5.1
Japan 128 −10.1 −8.8   1.3 0.5
United Kingdom 62 −8.6 −6.5   2.1 2.8
Canada 34 −4.9 −3.6   1.3 1.2

(a) The budget balance excluding cyclical influences (automatic stabilisers), interest payments and one-off items; per cent of potential GDP
(b) Federal Government budget positions only; data are for fiscal year

Sources: Congressional Budget Office; IMF; OECD; RBA

Table D1: Covered Bond Programs of the Major Banks
Issuer Program size
(A$ billion)
Issuance to date
(A$ billion)
Tenor
(years)
Currency
ANZ 20 3.5 3, 5, 7, 10, 11 CHF, EUR, NOK, USD
CBA 30 6.4 5, 10, 15, 18 AUD, EUR, GBP, NOK, USD
NAB 20 2.8 3, 5, 10, 15 EUR, GBP, NOK
WBC 20 4.5 5, 10 AUD, NOK, USD
Total 90 17.3    
Source: RBA