Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2011 List of tables

Table 1.1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent(a)
  2009 2010 2011 2012
  Estimate IMF forecasts(b)
United States −2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7
Euro area −4.1 1.8 1.5 1.7
Japan −6.3 4.3 1.6 1.8
China 9.2 10.3 9.6 9.5
Other east Asia(c) 0.0 7.6 5.0 4.9
India 5.8 9.7 8.4 8.0
World −0.6 5.0 4.4 4.5
Australia's trading partners(d) −0.3 6.7 5.1 5.3

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Forecasts from the January World Economic Outlook Update
(c) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(d) Weighted using merchandise export shares

Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters

Table 1.2: Commodity Price Growth
Per cent, SDR terms
  Since end October 2010 Since end January 2010
RBA index 12 54
– Excluding coal and iron ore 11 31
Bulk commodities 12 82
– Coking coal(a) 7 64
– Iron ore(a) 14 116
– Thermal coal(a) 13 35
Rural 21 51
– Wheat 21 81
– Cotton 42 165
– Sugar 5 26
Base metals 13 31
– Copper 22 47
Gold −2 23
Oil(b) 14 30

(a) RBA estimates for recent months
(b) Average of WTI and Tapis crude oil prices

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 2.1: Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent
  Most recent
change
Cumulative increase
Basis points
Euro area 1.00 May 09
Japan 0.05 Oct 10
United States 0.125 Dec 08
Brazil 11.25 Jan 11 250
Canada 1.00 Sep 10 75
China 5.81 Dec 10 50
India 6.50 Jan 11 175
Indonesia 6.50 Aug 09
Israel 2.25 Jan 11 175
Malaysia 2.75 Jul 10 75
Mexico 4.50 Jul 09
New Zealand 3.00 Jul 10 50
Norway 2.00 May 10 75
Russia 7.75 Jun 10
South Africa 5.50 Nov 10
South Korea 2.75 Jan 11 75
Sweden 1.25 Dec 10 100
Switzerland 0.25 Mar 09
Taiwan 1.625 Dec 10 37.5
Thailand 2.25 Jan 11 100
United Kingdom 0.50 Mar 09
Source: central banks
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
  Over 2010 Since previous
Statement
United States
– Dow Jones 11 7
– S&P 500 13 9
– NASDAQ 17 8
Euro area
– STOXX 0 6
United Kingdom
– FTSE 9 4
Japan
– Nikkei −3 14
Canada
– TSE 300 14 8
Australia
– ASX 200 −3 2
China
– China A −14 −8
MSCI Indices
– Emerging Asia 12 0
– Latin America 7 − 4
– Emerging Europe 16 7
– World 8 6
Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Change in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
  Past year Since previous
Statement
European euro 1 2
Indian rupee −1 3
UK pound sterling −1 − 1
Chinese renminbi −4 −1
Indonesian rupiah −4 1
South African rand −4 4
South Korean won −4 −1
Philippine peso −5 4
Mexican peso −7 −2
Canadian dollar −7 −2
Thai baht −7 4
New Zealand dollar −8 0
Brazilian real −9 −2
New Taiwan dollar −9 −5
Singapore dollar −10 −1
Japanese yen −10 1
Swiss franc −11 −3
Malaysian ringgit −11 −1
Swedish krona −11 −2
Australian dollar −12 0
Majors TWI −4 0
Broad TWI −5 −1
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
  Change over
past year
Change since previous
Statement
Deviation from
post-float average
European euro 15 3 10
US dollar 14 0 38
Indian rupee 13 3 69
UK pound sterling 12 0 38
Indonesian rupiah 11 1 136
Chinese renminbi 10 −1 41
South Korean won 9 0 60
South African rand 9 5 59
Thai baht 7 4 31
Canadian dollar 6 −2 7
New Zealand dollar 3 0 5
Singapore dollar 3 −1 3
Japanese yen 2 1 −12
Malaysian ringgit 2 −1 36
Swiss franc 1 −3 −11
TWI 9 0 26
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
  September
quarter 2010
Year to September
quarter 2010
Domestic final demand 0.6 4.4
– Private demand 0.6 3.0
– Public demand 0.9 8.9
Change in inventories(a) −0.2 −0.1
GNE 0.4 4.3
Net exports(a) −0.4 −1.8
GDP 0.2 2.7
Nominal GDP 1.2 9.6

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
  3 months to
September 2010
3 months to
December 2010
Year to
December 2010
Capital cities
ABS(a)(b) −0.3 0.7 5.8
APM 0.9 −0.4 4.7
RP Data-Rismark −0.1 0.4 4.7
Regional areas
APM(b) −0.4 0.2 1.2
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.4 −0.4 0.8

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 3.3: Components of Exports
Per cent; current prices
  Share of total exports
2010
Growth over year to
December 2010
Resources 56 44
– Iron ore(a) 17 105
– Coal(a) 15 35
Rural 10 19
Services 19 1
Manufacturing 11 2
Total 100 25

(a) RBA estimates

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Lending Rates(a)
Per cent
    Change Since:
  Level at
2 February 2011
End
October 2010
End
April 2009
Cash rate 4.75 0.25 1.75
Swap rate, 3-year 5.47 0.18 1.55
Housing loans
Prime full-doc 7.22 0.39 2.03
Prime full-doc, 3-year fixed rate 7.42 −0.01 1.55
Prime low-doc 7.88 0.40 2.08
Personal loans 12.88 0.28 1.93
Small business
Term loans
– Residentially secured 8.99 0.41 1.91
– Residentially secured, 3-year fixed rate 8.53 0.05 1.64
– Other security 9.70 0.36 1.81
Overdraft
– Residentially secured 9.86 0.41 1.96
– Other security 10.67 0.36 1.86
Average actual rate 8.92 0.41 1.81
Large business
Average actual rate (variable and bill funding) 6.98 0.20 1.95

(a) Variable interest rates unless otherwise indicated

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
  Monthly Average Year to December 2010
  September quarter 2010 December quarter 2010  
Total credit 0.1 0.2 3.4
– Owner-occupier housing 0.5 0.6 7.1
– Investor housing 0.7 0.5 7.9
– Personal 0.0 0.1 1.2
– Business −0.6 −0.4 −2.3
Broad money 0.5 0.8 8.1
Source: RBA
Table 4.3: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200
Per cent
  Change since:
  November Statement Trough (March 2009) Peak (November 2007)
Resources 5.2 64 −9
Financials −0.6 62 −41
Other 0.6 34 −32
ASX 200 1.6 52 −30
Source: ASX
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
  Quarterly   Year-ended
  September quarter 2010 December quarter 2010   September quarter 2010 December quarter 2010
CPI 0.7 0.4   2.8 2.7
– Tradables 0.2 0.3   1.4 1.6
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco)
0.4 −1.2   −1.0 −2.0
– Non-tradables
(excl deposit & loan facilities)
1.2 0.6   3.8 3.5
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.6 0.3   2.5 2.2
Weighted median 0.5 0.5   2.4 2.3
CPI excl volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities 1.1 0.1   2.9 2.5

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
  Year to December 2011   Year to December 2012
  August 2010 November 2010 February 2011   November 2010 February 2011
Market economists(a) 3.0 3.2 3.3   2.8 3.1
Union officials(b) 3.2 3.0 3.2   na 3.2
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent, over year to quarter shown
  June
2010
Dec
2010
June
2011
Dec
2011
June
2012
Dec
2012
June
2013
GDP growth 3.1 4 4
Non-farm GDP growth 3.2 4 4
CPI inflation 3.1 2.7 3 3 3
Underlying inflation 3 3

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.00, TWI at 74, WTI crude oil price at US$96 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$103 per barrel

Sources: ABS; RBA