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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2011

List of tables

Table 1.1: World GDP Growth

Table 1.2: Commodity Price Growth

Table 2.1: Policy Rates

Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices

Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies

Table 2.4: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth

Table 3.3: Components of Exports

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Lending Rates

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates

Table 4.3: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

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Table 1.1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent(a)
  2009 2010 2011 2012
  Estimate IMF forecasts(b)
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Forecasts from the January World Economic Outlook Update
(c) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(d) Weighted using merchandise export shares
Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
United States −2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7
Euro area −4.1 1.8 1.5 1.7
Japan −6.3 4.3 1.6 1.8
China 9.2 10.3 9.6 9.5
Other east Asia(c) 0.0 7.6 5.0 4.9
India 5.8 9.7 8.4 8.0
World −0.6 5.0 4.4 4.5
Australia’s trading partners(d) −0.3 6.7 5.1 5.3
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Table 1.2: Commodity Price Growth Per cent, SDR terms
Since end October 2010 Since end January 2010
(a) RBA estimates for recent months
(b) Average of WTI and Tapis crude oil prices
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
RBA index 12 54
– Excluding coal and iron ore 11 31
Bulk commodities 12 82
– Coking coal(a) 7 64
– Iron ore(a) 14 116
– Thermal coal(a) 13 35
Rural 21 51
– Wheat 21 81
– Cotton 42 165
– Sugar 5 26
Base metals 13 31
– Copper 22 47
Gold −2 23
Oil(b) 14 30
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Table 2.1: Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent		 Most recent
change		 Cumulative increase
Basis points
Source: central banks
Euro area 1.00 ↓ May 09 –
Japan 0.05 ↓ Oct 10 –
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 –
Brazil 11.25 ↑ Jan 11 250
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 75
China 5.81 ↑ Dec 10 50
India 6.50 ↑ Jan 11 175
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ Aug 09 –
Israel 2.25 ↑ Jan 11 175
Malaysia 2.75 ↑ Jul 10 75
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09 –
New Zealand 3.00 ↑ Jul 10 50
Norway 2.00 ↑ May 10 75
Russia 7.75 ↓ Jun 10 –
South Africa 5.50 ↓ Nov 10 –
South Korea 2.75 ↑ Jan 11 75
Sweden 1.25 ↑ Dec 10 100
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar 09 –
Taiwan 1.625 ↑ Dec 10 37.5
Thailand 2.25 ↑ Jan 11 100
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 –
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Table 2.2: Changes in
International Share Prices Per cent
  Over 2010 Since previous
Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones 11 7
– S&P 500 13 9
– NASDAQ 17 8
Euro area
– STOXX 0 6
United Kingdom
– FTSE 9 4
Japan
– Nikkei −3 14
Canada
– TSE 300 14 8
Australia
– ASX 200 −3 2
China
– China A −14 −8
MSCI Indices
– Emerging Asia 12 0
– Latin America 7 − 4
– Emerging Europe 16 7
– World 8 6
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Table 2.3: Change in the US Dollar
against Selected Currencies Per cent
  Past year Since previous
Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
European euro 1 2
Indian rupee −1 3
UK pound sterling −1 − 1
Chinese renminbi −4 −1
Indonesian rupiah −4 1
South African rand −4 4
South Korean won −4 −1
Philippine peso −5 4
Mexican peso −7 −2
Canadian dollar −7 −2
Thai baht −7 4
New Zealand dollar −8 0
Brazilian real −9 −2
New Taiwan dollar −9 −5
Singapore dollar −10 −1
Japanese yen −10 1
Swiss franc −11 −3
Malaysian ringgit −11 −1
Swedish krona −11 −2
Australian dollar −12 0
Majors TWI −4 0
Broad TWI −5 −1
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Table 2.4: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies Per cent
  Change over
past year 		Change since previous
Statement 		Deviation from
post-float average
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
European euro 15 3 10
US dollar 14 0 38
Indian rupee 13 3 69
UK pound sterling 12 0 38
Indonesian rupiah 11 1 136
Chinese renminbi 10 −1 41
South Korean won 9 0 60
South African rand 9 5 59
Thai baht 7 4 31
Canadian dollar 6 −2 7
New Zealand dollar 3 0 5
Singapore dollar 3 −1 3
Japanese yen 2 1 −12
Malaysian ringgit 2 −1 36
Swiss franc 1 −3 −11
TWI 9 0 26
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Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth Per cent
  September
quarter 2010		 Year to September
quarter 2010
(a) Contribution to GDP growth
Source: ABS
Domestic final demand 0.6 4.4
– Private demand 0.6 3.0
– Public demand 0.9 8.9
Change in inventories(a) −0.2 −0.1
GNE 0.4 4.3
Net exports(a) −0.4 −1.8
GDP 0.2 2.7
Nominal GDP 1.2 9.6
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Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth Per cent
3 months to
September 2010		 3 months to
December 2010		 Year to
December 2010
(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Capital cities
ABS(a)(b) −0.3 0.7 5.8
APM 0.9 −0.4 4.7
RP Data-Rismark −0.1 0.4 4.7
Regional areas
APM(b) −0.4 0.2 1.2
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.4 −0.4 0.8
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Table 3.3: Components of Exports Per cent; current prices
Share of total exports
2010		 Growth over year to
December 2010
(a) RBA estimates
Sources: ABS; RBA
Resources 56 44
– Iron ore(a) 17 105
– Coal(a) 15 35
Rural 10 19
Services 19 1
Manufacturing 11 2
Total 100 25
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Table 4.1: Intermediaries’ Lending Rates(a) Per cent
Change Since:
Level at
2 February 2011		 End
October 2010		 End
April 2009
(a) Variable interest rates unless otherwise indicated
Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Cash rate 4.75 0.25 1.75
Swap rate, 3-year 5.47 0.18 1.55
Housing loans
Prime full-doc 7.22 0.39 2.03
Prime full-doc, 3-year fixed rate 7.42 −0.01 1.55
Prime low-doc 7.88 0.40 2.08
Personal loans 12.88 0.28 1.93
Small business
Term loans
– Residentially secured 8.99 0.41 1.91
– Residentially secured, 3-year fixed rate 8.53 0.05 1.64
– Other security 9.70 0.36 1.81
Overdraft
– Residentially secured 9.86 0.41 1.96
– Other security 10.67 0.36 1.86
Average actual rate 8.92 0.41 1.81
Large business
Average actual rate (variable and bill funding) 6.98 0.20 1.95
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Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates Percentage change
Monthly Average Year to December 2010
September quarter 2010 December quarter 2010
Source: RBA
Total credit 0.1 0.2 3.4
– Owner-occupier housing 0.5 0.6 7.1
– Investor housing 0.7 0.5 7.9
– Personal 0.0 0.1 1.2
– Business −0.6 −0.4 −2.3
Broad money 0.5 0.8 8.1
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Table 4.3: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200 Per cent
Change since:
November Statement Trough (March 2009) Peak (November 2007)
Source: ASX
Resources 5.2 64 −9
Financials −0.6 62 −41
Other 0.6 34 −32
ASX 200 1.6 52 −30
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Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation Per cent
Quarterly   Year-ended
September quarter 2010 December quarter 2010 September quarter 2010 December quarter 2010
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 0.7 0.4   2.8 2.7
– Tradables 0.2 0.3   1.4 1.6
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco)		 0.4 −1.2   −1.0 −2.0
– Non-tradables
(excl deposit & loan facilities)		 1.2 0.6   3.8 3.5
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.6 0.3   2.5 2.2
Weighted median 0.5 0.5   2.4 2.3
CPI excl volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities 1.1 0.1   2.9 2.5
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Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations Per cent
Year to December 2011   Year to December 2012
August 2010 November 2010 February 2011   November 2010 February 2011
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 3.0 3.2 3.3   2.8 3.1
Union officials(b) 3.2 3.0 3.2   na 3.2
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Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a) Per cent, over year to quarter shown
June
2010		 Dec
2010		 June
2011		 Dec
2011		 June
2012		 Dec
2012		 June
2013
(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.00, TWI at 74, WTI crude oil price at US$96 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$103 per barrel
Sources: ABS; RBA
GDP growth 3.1 2¾ 3¼ 4¼ 3¾ 4 4
Non-farm GDP growth 3.2 2½ 3¼ 4¼ 3¾ 4 4
CPI inflation 3.1 2.7 2½ 3 2¾ 3 3
Underlying inflation 2¾ 2¼ 2¼ 2¾ 2¾ 3 3
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