Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2011 List of tables

Chapters

Boxes

  • Table A1: Japanese Motor Vehicle Producers
  • Table D1: Average Duration of Short Positions in ASX 200 Companies
Table 1.1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent(a)
2009 2010 2011 2012
IMF forecasts(b)
United States −3.5 3.0 2.5 2.7
Euro area −4.2 1.8 2.0 1.7
Japan −6.3 4.0 −0.7 2.9
China 9.2 10.3 9.6 9.5
East Asia (excl China and Japan)(c) 0.1 7.7 5.2 5.0
India 6.8 10.1 8.2 7.8
World −0.8 5.1 4.3 4.5
Australia's trading partners(d) −0.2 6.8 4.7 5.5

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Forecasts from the June World Economic Outlook Update
(c) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(d) Weighted using merchandise export shares

Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters

Table 1.2: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR terms, per cent
Change since previous Statement Change over the past year
Bulk commodities(b) 2 24
– Iron ore −2 19
– Coking coal 5 32
– Thermal coal 12 26
Rural 0 25
– Beef −3 14
– Cotton −30 27
– Wheat −2 21
– Wool 6 76
Base metals 3 12
– Aluminium −4 8
– Copper 10 22
– Lead 9 8
– Nickel −2 4
– Zinc 13 8
Gold 14 33
Oil(c) −3 22
– US$ terms −5 27
(a) RBA Index of Commodity Prices components except oil; latest available
(b) RBA estimates for recent months
(c) Average of WTI and Tapis crude oil prices Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 2.1: Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent
Most
recent
change
Cumulative
increase
Basis points
Euro area 1.50 Jul 11 50
Japan 0.05 Oct 10
United States 0.125 Dec 08
Brazil 12.50 Jul 11 375
Canada 1.00 Sep 10 75
China 6.56 Jul 11 125
India 8.00 Jul 11 325
Indonesia 6.75 Feb 11 25
Israel 3.25 May 11 275
Malaysia 3.00 May 11 100
Mexico 4.50 Jul 09
New Zealand 2.50 Mar 11
Norway 2.25 May 11 100
Russia 8.25 Apr 11 50
South Africa 5.50 Nov 10
South Korea 3.25 Jun 11 125
Sweden 2.00 Jul 11 175
Switzerland 0.00 Aug 11
Taiwan 1.875 Jun 11 63
Thailand 3.25 Jul 11 200
Turkey 6.25 Jan 11
United Kingdom 0.50 Mar 09
Source: central banks
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Since end 2010 Since previous Statement
United States
– Dow Jones 3 −7
– S&P 500 0 −6
– NASDAQ 2 −5
Euro area
– STOXX −11 −15
United Kingdom
– FTSE −5 −7
Japan
– Nikkei −6 −4
Canada
– TSE 300 −5 −6
Australia
– ASX 200 −9 −9
China
– China A −5 −7
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −4 −5
– Latin America −16 −8
– Emerging Europe −3 −6
– World −5 −8
Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over past year Since previous
Statement
Swedish krona −10 4
European euro −7 4
South African rand −7 2
Mexican peso −6 2
New Taiwan dollar −9 1
UK pound sterling −3 1
Australian dollar −15 1
Canadian dollar −6 1
Malaysian ringgit −6 0
Indian rupee −4 0
Indonesian rupiah −5 −1
Chinese renminbi −5 −1
Thai baht −7 −1
Philippine peso −6 −1
South Korean won −9 −2
Japanese yen −8 −2
Singapore dollar −10 −2
Brazilian real −11 −4
New Zealand dollar −14 −7
Swiss franc −25 −10
Majors TWI −7 1
Broad TWI −7 0
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Foreign Exchange Reserves
As at end June 2011
Three-month-ended change Level
US$ equivalent
(billions)
Per cent US$ equivalent
(billions)
China 153 5 3,197
Japan 20 2 1,061
Russia 18 4 472
Taiwan 8 2 400
Brazil(a) 18 6 327
South Korea 5 2 299
Thailand 2 1 177
South Africa 0 1 41
Chile(a) 3 11 33

(a) RBA estimates of official reserve assets excluding gold

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; RBA

Table 2.5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Change over
past year
Change since previous Statement Deviation from post-float average
European euro 8 3 13
South African rand 9 1 59
UK pound sterling 14 0 45
Canadian dollar 10 0 10
US dollar 17 −1 46
Malaysian ringgit 10 −1 42
Indian rupee 13 −1 75
Indonesian rupiah 11 −1 135
Chinese renminbi 11 −1 46
Thai baht 8 −1 34
South Korean won 6 −2 63
Japanese yen 8 −2 −10
Singapore dollar 5 −2 4
New Zealand dollar 1 −8 2
Swiss franc −12 −10 −22
TWI 10 −1 29
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; W/M Reuters
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
March
quarter 2011
Year to March
quarter 2011
Domestic final demand 1.3 3.3
– Private demand 1.3 3.8
– Public demand 1.1 1.8
Change in inventories(a) −0.5 −0.2
GNE 0.8 3.1
Net exports(a) −2.4 −2.8
GDP −1.2 1.0
Nominal GDP 0.7 7.1

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to
March 2011
3 months to
June 2011
Year to
June 2011
Capital cities
ABS(a)(b) −1.1 −0.1 −1.9
APM −0.9 −1.5 −2.6
RP Data-Rismark −1.8 −0.9 −2.0
Regional areas
APM(b) −0.3 0.4 0.0
RP Data-Rismark(a) −1.7 −1.1 −2.4

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 3.3: LNG Projects Commencing in 2011
US$ billion
Committed
Gladstone LNG 16
Queensland Curtis LNG 15
Australia Pacific LNG (Phase 1) 14
Prelude LNG 12
Likely
Wheatstone LNG 25
Source: publicly available information
Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Change Since:
Level at
end July 2011
May
Statement
End
July 2010
Cash rate 4.75 0.00 0.25
Housing loans(a) 7.04 −0.05 0.29
Personal loans 13.10 0.01 0.31
Small business
Residentially secured
– Term loans 8.99 0.00 0.40
– Overdraft 9.86 0.00 0.40
Average actual rate 8.81 0.00 0.27
Large business
Average actual rate (variable and bill funding) 7.05 0.06 0.22

(a) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on $250,000 full-doc loans

Sources: ABS; APRA; Perpetual; RBA

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
Average monthly growth
March
quarter 2011
June
quarter 2011
Year to
June 2011
Total credit 0.5 0.1 2.7
– Owner-occupier housing 0.5 0.4 6.3
– Investor housing 0.4 0.3 5.4
– Personal 0.3 −0.3 0.3
– Business 0.5 −0.4 −2.4
Broad money 0.6 0.3 6.8
Source: RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly Year-ended
March quarter 2011 June quarter 2011 March quarter 2011 June quarter 2011
CPI 1.6 0.9   3.3 3.6
– Tradables 1.8 1.3   3.3 3.6
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco)
−0.6 0.5   −1.6 −1.0
– Non-tradables
(excl deposit & loan facilities)
1.1 0.6   3.3 3.5
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.9 0.9   2.3 2.7
Weighted median 0.8 0.9   2.2 2.7
CPI excl volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities 0.7 0.5   2.6 2.4

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Productivity Growth
Annual average, per cent
1975/76–2003/04 2004/05–2010/11(a)
Market sector industries(b)
Labour productivity 2.2 0.9
Multifactor productivity 1.0 −0.8
All industries
Labour productivity 2.0 0.6
Multifactor productivity 1.1 −0.1

(a) Labour productivity includes estimates for 2010/11; multifactor productivity is calculated to 2009/10
(b) Market sector estimates of productivity are more reliable as industries for which productivity is most difficult to estimate are excluded. Data prior to 1994/95 are for ‘selected industries’, which is a slightly narrower definition of the market sector than the current ABS definition.

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.3: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2011 Year to December 2012
February
2011
May
2011
August
2011
May
2011
August
2011
Market economists(a) 3.3 3.4 3.4   3.0 3.7
Union officials(b) 3.2 3.3 3.4   3.1 3.1
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
Dec
2010
June
2011
Dec
2011
June
2012
Dec
2012
June
2013
Dec
2013
GDP growth 2.7
Non-farm GDP growth 2.2 1
CPI inflation 2.7 3.6
Underlying inflation 3
CPI inflation
excl carbon price
2.7 3.6 3 3
Underlying inflation
excl carbon price
3 3 3
Year-average
2010 2010/11 2011 2011/12 2012 2012/13 2013
GDP growth 2.7 2 4

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.07, TWI at 77 and Tapis crudeoil price at US$118 per barrel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table A1: Japanese Motor Vehicle Producers
Market share and supply-chain effects, per cent
Japanese vehicle brands in total domestic production Imported Japanese vehicles in total sales Motor vehicle production Motor vehicle sales
2009 2010 Growth over 2 months to May 2011
Thailand 86 6   −38 −32
Taiwan 84 15   −14 −35
Australia 43 34   −13 −12
Canada 39 12   −12 −16
United Kingdom 50 5   −8(a) 1
United States 37 13   −7 −10
Euro area 3 4   1 0

(a) Change from March to April; production rebounded in May

Sources: CEIC; European Automobile Manufacturers' Association; FCAI/VFACTS; International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers; RBA; Thomson Financial

Table D1: Average Duration of Short Positions in ASX 200 Companies
By sector, number of days(a)
Since previous Statement June 2010–April 2011
Financials 9.0 9.8
– Major banks 8.2 10.0
– Other financials 10.7 9.5
Non-financials 12.9 13.6
– Resources 10.9 11.7
– Other non-financials 15.7 16.8
ASX 200 11.6 12.4

(a) Outstanding short positions divided by short turnover

Sources: ASIC; ASX; Bloomberg; RBA