Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2010 List of tables
Chapters
- Table 1: Commodity Price Growth
- Table 2: Policy Rates
- Table 3: Changes in International Share Prices
- Table 4: Changes in US Dollar against Selected Currencies
- Table 5: Selected Economies Foreign Exchange Reserves
- Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
- Table 7: Demand and Output Growth
- Table 8: National Housing Price Growth
- Table 9: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
- Table 10: Financial Aggregates
- Table 11: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200
- Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
- Table 13: Wage Price Index Growth by State
- Table 14: Median Inflation Expectations
- Table 15: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Boxes
Since end July 2010 |
Since end October 2009 |
|
---|---|---|
RBA index | 1 | 45 |
– Excluding bulk commodities | 7 | 26 |
Bulk commodities | −4 | 68 |
– Coking coal(a) | −3 | 53 |
– Iron ore(a) | −6 | 97 |
– Thermal coal(a) | 1 | 31 |
Rural | 18 | 36 |
– Sugar | 40 | 63 |
– Wheat | 15 | 42 |
– Other | 15 | 29 |
Base metals | 10 | 25 |
Gold | 10 | 30 |
Oil(b) | 6 | 12 |
(a) Export prices; RBA estimates for recent months Sources: Bloomberg; RBA |
Current level Per cent |
Most recent change |
Cumulative increase Basis points |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Euro area | 1.00 | ↓ | May 09 | – | |
Japan | 0.05 | ↓ | Oct 10 | – | |
United States | 0.125 | ↓ | Dec 08 | – | |
Brazil | 10.75 | ↑ | Jul 10 | 200 | |
Canada | 1.00 | ↑ | Sep 10 | 75 | |
China | 5.56 | ↑ | Oct 10 | 25 | |
India | 6.25 | ↑ | Nov 10 | 150 | |
Indonesia | 6.50 | ↓ | Aug 09 | – | |
Israel | 2.00 | ↑ | Sep 10 | 150 | |
Malaysia | 2.75 | ↑ | Jul 10 | 75 | |
Mexico | 4.50 | ↓ | Jul 09 | – | |
New Zealand | 3.00 | ↑ | Jul 10 | 50 | |
Norway | 2.00 | ↑ | May 10 | 75 | |
Russia | 7.75 | ↓ | Jun 10 | – | |
South Africa | 6.00 | ↓ | Sep 10 | – | |
South Korea | 2.25 | ↑ | Jul 10 | 25 | |
Sweden | 1.00 | ↑ | Oct 10 | 75 | |
Switzerland | 0.25 | ↓ | Mar 09 | – | |
Taiwan | 1.50 | ↑ | Oct 10 | 25 | |
Thailand | 1.75 | ↑ | Aug 10 | 50 | |
Turkey | 7.00 | ↓ | Nov 09 | – | |
United Kingdom | 0.50 | ↓ | Mar 09 | – | |
Source: central banks |
Since mid April peak |
Since previous Statement |
|
---|---|---|
United States | ||
– Dow Jones | 0 | 5 |
– S&P 500 | −2 | 6 |
– NASDAQ | 0 | 10 |
Euro area | ||
– STOXX | −4 | 2 |
United Kingdom | ||
– FTSE | −1 | 7 |
Japan | ||
– Nikkei | −19 | −3 |
Canada | ||
– TSE 300 | 3 | 7 |
Australia | ||
– ASX 200 | −6 | 4 |
China | ||
– China A | −4 | 15 |
MSCI indices | ||
– Emerging Asia | 8 | 9 |
– Latin America | 3 | 7 |
– Emerging Europe | 1 | 7 |
– World | −2 | 5 |
Source: Bloomberg |
Since mid 2008 trough |
Since previous Statement |
|
---|---|---|
Japanese yen | −23 | −6 |
Thai baht | −11 | −7 |
South African rand | −10 | −6 |
Philippine peso | −6 | −6 |
Singapore dollar | −5 | −5 |
Malaysian ringgit | −4 | −3 |
Swiss franc | −4 | −8 |
Australian dollar | −3 | −9 |
Indonesian rupiah | −2 | 0 |
Chinese renminbi | −2 | −1 |
New Zealand dollar | −1 | −6 |
New Taiwan dollar | 0 | −4 |
Canadian dollar | 0 | −1 |
Indian rupee | 3 | −4 |
Brazilian real | 7 | −3 |
South Korean won | 10 | −5 |
Swedish krona | 10 | −8 |
European euro | 13 | −7 |
Mexican peso | 19 | −2 |
UK pound sterling | 25 | −1 |
Majors TWI | 3 | −4 |
Broad TWI | 4 | −3 |
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System |
Three-month-ended change | Level | ||
---|---|---|---|
US$ billion | Per cent | US$ billion | |
China | 194 | 8 | 2,648 |
Japan | 56 | 6 | 1,052 |
Russia | 25 | 6 | 448 |
Brazil | 22 | 9 | 268 |
Taiwan | 18 | 5 | 381 |
Thailand | 16 | 11 | 157 |
South Korea | 15 | 6 | 285 |
Sources: CEIC; Thomson Reuters |
Change since May trough |
Change since previous Statement |
Deviation from post-float average |
|
---|---|---|---|
US dollar | 23 | 10 | 38 |
Chinese renminbi | 20 | 8 | 42 |
Indonesian rupiah | 19 | 9 | 133 |
Indian rupee | 17 | 6 | 65 |
Canadian dollar | 16 | 8 | 8 |
Malaysian ringgit | 16 | 7 | 38 |
Thai baht | 13 | 1 | 25 |
South Korean won | 13 | 4 | 60 |
Singapore dollar | 12 | 4 | 4 |
Japanese yen | 11 | 3 | −13 |
UK pound sterling | 10 | 8 | 39 |
European euro | 9 | 2 | 7 |
South African rand | 6 | 4 | 52 |
New Zealand dollar | 5 | 3 | 5 |
Swiss franc | 4 | 1 | −8 |
TWI | 15 | 6 | 25 |
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters |
June quarter 2010 |
Year to June quarter 2010 |
|
---|---|---|
Domestic final demand | 1.3 | 5.3 |
– Private demand | 1.4 | 3.0 |
– Public demand | 1.2 | 13.1 |
Change in inventories(a) | −0.7 | 0.5 |
GNE | 0.6 | 5.8 |
Net exports(a) | 0.4 | −2.5 |
GDP | 1.2 | 3.3 |
Nominal GDP | 3.6 | 10.0 |
(a) Contribution to GDP growth Source: ABS |
3 months to June 2010 |
3 months to September 2010 |
Year to September 2010 |
|
---|---|---|---|
Capital cities | |||
ABS(b) | 2.0 | 0.1 | 11.5 |
APM | 1.2 | −0.1 | 10.1 |
RP Data-Rismark | 0.7 | −0.4 | 7.9 |
Regional areas | |||
APM | 0.6 | −0.6 | 5.3 |
RP Data-Rismark(b) | 0.9 | −1.9 | 2.7 |
(a) ABS and APM regional data are quarterly; all other data series are monthly Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark |
Change since: | |||
---|---|---|---|
Level at 31 Oct 2010 |
August Statement |
Mid 2009 | |
Housing loans | |||
Prime full-doc | 6.82 | 0 | 1.63 |
Prime low-doc | 7.48 | 0 | 1.68 |
Personal loans | 12.64 | 0 | 1.70 |
Small business | |||
Term loans | |||
– Residentially secured | 8.59 | 0 | 1.51 |
– Other security | 9.35 | 0 | 1.45 |
Overdraft | |||
– Residentially secured | 9.45 | 0 | 1.56 |
– Other security | 10.31 | 0 | 1.50 |
Average actual rate | 8.61 | 0 | 1.49 |
Large business | |||
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding | 6.72 | −0.08 | 1.70 |
Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA |
Average monthly growth | Year to September 2010 |
||
---|---|---|---|
June quarter 2010 |
September quarter 2010 |
||
Total credit | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.3 |
– Owner-occupier housing | 0.5 | 0.6 | 7.9 |
– Investor housing | 0.7 | 0.7 | 8.1 |
– Personal | −0.2 | 0.0 | 2.8 |
– Business | 0.1 | −0.6 | −3.7 |
Broad money | 0.6 | 0.6 | 5.4 |
Source: RBA |
Per cent change since: | |||
---|---|---|---|
August Statement | Trough (March 2009) | Peak (November 2007) | |
Resources | 7.7 | 56 | −14 |
Financials | 1.0 | 63 | −40 |
Other | 2.3 | 33 | −32 |
ASX 200 | 3.4 | 50 | −31 |
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA |
Quarterly | Year-ended | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
June quarter 2010 |
September quarter 2010 |
June quarter 2010 |
September quarter 2010 |
|||
CPI | 0.6 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | ||
– Tradables | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | ||
– Tradables (excl food, fuel and tobacco) |
−0.1 | 0.4 | −1.1 | −1.0 | ||
– Non-tradables (excl deposit & loan facilities) |
0.4 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | ||
Selected underlying measures | ||||||
Trimmed mean | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | ||
Weighted median | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | ||
CPI excl volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities |
0.7 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 2.9 | ||
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel Sources: ABS; RBA |
2009 | 2010(a) (annualised) |
|
---|---|---|
New South Wales | 2.9 | 3.3 |
Victoria | 2.7 | 2.7 |
Queensland | 3.2 | 3.8 |
South Australia | 2.4 | 3.9 |
Western Australia | 3.0 | 4.1 |
Tasmania | 3.7 | 3.6 |
Australia | 2.9 | 3.3 |
(a) State data are seasonally adjusted by the RBA Sources: ABS; RBA |
Year to June 2011 | Year to June 2012 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
May 2010 |
August 2010 |
November 2010 |
August 2010 |
November 2010 |
|||
Market economists(a) | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.1 | ||
Union officials(b) | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | ||
(a) RBA survey (b) Workplace Research Centre |
June 2010 | Dec 2010 | June 2011 | Dec 2011 | June 2012 | Dec 2012 | June 2013 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP growth | 3.3 | 3½ | 3½ | 3¾ | 3¾ | 4 | 4 |
Non-farm GDP growth | 3.3 | 3¼ | 3¼ | 3¾ | 3¾ | 4 | 4 |
CPI inflation | 3.1 | 2¾ | 2¾ | 2¾ | 2¾ | 3 | 3 |
Underlying inflation | 2¾ | 2½ | 2½ | 2¾ | 2¾ | 3 | 3 |
(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.00, TWI at 74, WTI crude oil price at US$87 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$90 per barrel Sources: ABS; RBA |
Economy | Policy Measures |
---|---|
China | Investors to pay a minimum 50 per cent deposit on property purchases (previously 40 per cent) Owner occupiers to pay a minimum 30 per cent deposit (previously 20 per cent on purchases of apartments less than 90 square metres) Minimum interest rate on investor loans increased to 1.1 times the benchmark lending rate Reduction in mortgage rate discounts for first home buyers Loans for the purchase of third (or more) properties prohibited Limits on property purchases in areas where housing supply is particularly tight |
Hong Kong | Maximum loan-to-valuation ratio of 60 per cent on properties valued above HK$12 million For properties valued below HK$12 million, loans are capped at the lower of HK$7.2 million or 70 per cent of the valuation of the property Debt servicing ratios capped at 50 per cent (previously 60 per cent) |
Singapore | Expiry of stimulus-related property tax rebate Sellers to pay stamp duty on the sale of any property sold within three years of purchase (was one year when the stamp duty was initially introduced in April 2010) Cash deposit requirements for the purchase of second properties increased |
Taiwan | Loans not to exceed 70 per cent of the collateral used to purchase second properties in certain areas Banks cannot grant additional loans on same collateral Mandated that all mortgages should require some repayment of principal |
Sources: central banks; government authorities |