Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2010 List of tables

Chapters

    Table 1: Commodity Price Growth

    Table 2: Policy Rates

    Table 3: Changes in International Share Prices

    Table 4: Changes in US Dollar against Selected Currencies

    Table 5: Selected Economies Foreign Exchange Reserves

    Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

    Table 7: Demand and Output Growth

    Table 8: National Housing Price Growth

    Table 9: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates

    Table 10: Financial Aggregates

    Table 11: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200

    Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

    Table 13: Wage Price Index Growth by State

    Table 14: Median Inflation Expectations

    Table 15: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Boxes

  • Table B1: East Asia – Summary of Recent Property Market Policies
Table 1: Commodity Price Growth
Per cent, SDR terms
Since end
July 2010
Since end
October 2009
RBA index 1 45
– Excluding bulk commodities 7 26
Bulk commodities −4 68
– Coking coal(a) −3 53
– Iron ore(a) −6 97
– Thermal coal(a) 1 31
Rural 18 36
– Sugar 40 63
– Wheat 15 42
– Other 15 29
Base metals 10 25
Gold 10 30
Oil(b) 6 12

(a) Export prices; RBA estimates for recent months
(b) Average of WTI and Tapis crude oil prices

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 2: Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent
Most
recent
change
Cumulative
increase
Basis points
Euro area 1.00 May 09
Japan 0.05 Oct 10
United States 0.125 Dec 08
Brazil 10.75 Jul 10 200
Canada 1.00 Sep 10 75
China 5.56 Oct 10 25
India 6.25 Nov 10 150
Indonesia 6.50 Aug 09
Israel 2.00 Sep 10 150
Malaysia 2.75 Jul 10 75
Mexico 4.50 Jul 09
New Zealand 3.00 Jul 10 50
Norway 2.00 May 10 75
Russia 7.75 Jun 10
South Africa 6.00 Sep 10
South Korea 2.25 Jul 10 25
Sweden 1.00 Oct 10 75
Switzerland 0.25 Mar 09
Taiwan 1.50 Oct 10 25
Thailand 1.75 Aug 10 50
Turkey 7.00 Nov 09
United Kingdom 0.50 Mar 09
Source: central banks
Table 3: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Since mid
April peak
Since previous
Statement
United States
– Dow Jones 0 5
– S&P 500 −2 6
– NASDAQ 0 10
Euro area
– STOXX −4 2
United Kingdom
– FTSE −1 7
Japan
– Nikkei −19 −3
Canada
– TSE 300 3 7
Australia
– ASX 200 −6 4
China
– China A −4 15
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia 8 9
– Latin America 3 7
– Emerging Europe 1 7
– World −2 5
Source: Bloomberg
Table 4: Changes in US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Since
mid 2008
trough
Since
previous
Statement
Japanese yen −23 −6
Thai baht −11 −7
South African rand −10 −6
Philippine peso −6 −6
Singapore dollar −5 −5
Malaysian ringgit −4 −3
Swiss franc −4 −8
Australian dollar −3 −9
Indonesian rupiah −2 0
Chinese renminbi −2 −1
New Zealand dollar −1 −6
New Taiwan dollar 0 −4
Canadian dollar 0 −1
Indian rupee 3 −4
Brazilian real 7 −3
South Korean won 10 −5
Swedish krona 10 −8
European euro 13 −7
Mexican peso 19 −2
UK pound sterling 25 −1
Majors TWI 3 −4
Broad TWI 4 −3
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 5: Selected Economies Foreign Exchange Reserves
As at end September 2010
Three-month-ended change Level
US$ billion Per cent US$ billion
China 194 8 2,648
Japan 56 6 1,052
Russia 25 6 448
Brazil 22 9 268
Taiwan 18 5 381
Thailand 16 11 157
South Korea 15 6 285
Sources: CEIC; Thomson Reuters
Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Change since
May trough
Change since
previous Statement
Deviation from
post-float average
US dollar 23 10 38
Chinese renminbi 20 8 42
Indonesian rupiah 19 9 133
Indian rupee 17 6 65
Canadian dollar 16 8 8
Malaysian ringgit 16 7 38
Thai baht 13 1 25
South Korean won 13 4 60
Singapore dollar 12 4 4
Japanese yen 11 3 −13
UK pound sterling 10 8 39
European euro 9 2 7
South African rand 6 4 52
New Zealand dollar 5 3 5
Swiss franc 4 1 −8
TWI 15 6 25
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 7: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
June
quarter 2010
Year to June
quarter 2010
Domestic final demand 1.3 5.3
– Private demand 1.4 3.0
– Public demand 1.2 13.1
Change in inventories(a) −0.7 0.5
GNE 0.6 5.8
Net exports(a) 0.4 −2.5
GDP 1.2 3.3
Nominal GDP 3.6 10.0

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 8: National Housing Price Growth(a)
Per cent
3 months
to June 2010
3 months to
September 2010
Year to
September 2010
Capital cities
ABS(b) 2.0 0.1 11.5
APM 1.2 −0.1 10.1
RP Data-Rismark 0.7 −0.4 7.9
Regional areas
APM 0.6 −0.6 5.3
RP Data-Rismark(b) 0.9 −1.9 2.7

(a) ABS and APM regional data are quarterly; all other data series are monthly
(b) Detached houses only

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 9: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Change since:
Level at
31 Oct 2010
August
Statement
Mid 2009
Housing loans
Prime full-doc 6.82 0 1.63
Prime low-doc 7.48 0 1.68
Personal loans 12.64 0 1.70
Small business
Term loans
– Residentially secured 8.59 0 1.51
– Other security 9.35 0 1.45
Overdraft
– Residentially secured 9.45 0 1.56
– Other security 10.31 0 1.50
Average actual rate 8.61 0 1.49
Large business
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding 6.72 −0.08 1.70
Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Table 10: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
Average monthly growth Year to
September 2010
June
quarter 2010
September
quarter 2010
Total credit 0.3 0.1 3.3
– Owner-occupier housing 0.5 0.6 7.9
– Investor housing 0.7 0.7 8.1
– Personal −0.2 0.0 2.8
– Business 0.1 −0.6 −3.7
Broad money 0.6 0.6 5.4
Source: RBA
Table 11: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200
Per cent change since:
August Statement Trough (March 2009) Peak (November 2007)
Resources 7.7 56 −14
Financials 1.0 63 −40
Other 2.3 33 −32
ASX 200 3.4 50 −31
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly Year-ended
June quarter
2010
September quarter
2010
June quarter
2010
September quarter
2010
CPI 0.6 0.7   3.1 2.8
– Tradables 1.0 0.2   1.4 1.4
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco)
−0.1 0.4   −1.1 −1.0
– Non-tradables
(excl deposit & loan facilities)
0.4 1.2   4.0 3.8
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.5 0.6   2.7 2.5
Weighted median 0.5 0.5   2.7 2.3
CPI excl volatile items(a) and
deposit & loan facilities
0.7 1.1   2.8 2.9

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 13: Wage Price Index Growth by State
Per cent
2009 2010(a)
(annualised)
New South Wales 2.9 3.3
Victoria 2.7 2.7
Queensland 3.2 3.8
South Australia 2.4 3.9
Western Australia 3.0 4.1
Tasmania 3.7 3.6
Australia 2.9 3.3

(a) State data are seasonally adjusted by the RBA

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 14: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to June 2011 Year to June 2012
May
2010
August
2010
November
2010
August
2010
November
2010
Market economists(a) 3.0 3.2 3.0   2.8 3.1
Union officials(b) 3.0 3.0 3.0   3.2 3.0
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 15: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent, over year to quarter shown
June 2010 Dec 2010 June 2011 Dec 2011 June 2012 Dec 2012 June 2013
GDP growth 3.3 4 4
Non-farm GDP growth 3.3 4 4
CPI inflation 3.1 3 3
Underlying inflation 3 3

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.00, TWI at 74, WTI crude oil price at US$87 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$90 per barrel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table B1: East Asia – Summary of Recent Property Market Policies
Economy Policy Measures
China

Investors to pay a minimum 50 per cent deposit on property purchases (previously 40 per cent)

Owner occupiers to pay a minimum 30 per cent deposit (previously 20 per cent on purchases of apartments less than 90 square metres)

Minimum interest rate on investor loans increased to 1.1 times the benchmark lending rate

Reduction in mortgage rate discounts for first home buyers

Loans for the purchase of third (or more) properties prohibited

Limits on property purchases in areas where housing supply is particularly tight
Hong Kong

Maximum loan-to-valuation ratio of 60 per cent on properties valued above HK$12 million

For properties valued below HK$12 million, loans are capped at the lower of HK$7.2 million or 70 per cent of the valuation of the property

Debt servicing ratios capped at 50 per cent (previously 60 per cent)
Singapore

Expiry of stimulus-related property tax rebate

Sellers to pay stamp duty on the sale of any property sold within three years of purchase (was one year when the stamp duty was initially introduced in April 2010)

Cash deposit requirements for the purchase of second properties increased
Taiwan

Loans not to exceed 70 per cent of the collateral used to purchase second properties in certain areas

Banks cannot grant additional loans on same collateral

Mandated that all mortgages should require some repayment of principal
Sources: central banks; government authorities