Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2010 List of tables
Chapters
- Table 1: World GDP Growth
- Table 2: Policy Rates
- Table 3: Changes in International Share Prices
- Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
- Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
- Table 6: Demand and Output Growth
- Table 7: National Housing Price Growth
- Table 8: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
- Table 9: Credit Aggregates
- Table 10: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
- Table 11: Median Inflation Expectations
- Table 12: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Boxes
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Estimate | IMF forecasts(b) | |||
United States | 0.4 | −2.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
Euro area | 0.7 | −3.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
Japan | −1.2 | −5.2 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
China | 9.6 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 9.7 |
Other east Asia(c) | 2.7 | −0.3 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
India | 7.5 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 7.8 |
World | 3.0 | −0.8 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
Australia's trading partners(d) | 2.7 | −0.3 | 4.4 | 4.6 |
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters |
Current level Per cent |
Most recent change |
||
---|---|---|---|
Euro area | 1.00 | ↓ May-09 | |
Japan | 0.10 | ↓ Dec-08 | |
United States | 0.125 | ↓ Dec-08 | |
Brazil | 8.75 | ↓ Jul-09 | |
Canada | 0.25 | ↓ Apr-09 | |
China | 5.31 | ↓ Dec-08 | |
India | 4.75 | ↓ Apr-09 | |
Indonesia | 6.50 | ↓ Aug-09 | |
Israel | 1.25 | ↑ Dec-09 | |
Malaysia | 2.00 | ↓ Feb-09 | |
Mexico | 4.50 | ↓ Jul-09 | |
New Zealand | 2.50 | ↓ Apr-09 | |
Norway | 1.75 | ↑ Dec-09 | |
Russia | 8.75 | ↓ Dec-09 | |
South Africa | 7.00 | ↓ Aug-09 | |
South Korea | 2.00 | ↓ Feb-09 | |
Sweden | 0.25 | ↓ Jul-09 | |
Switzerland | 0.25 | ↓ Mar-09 | |
Thailand | 1.25 | ↓ Apr-09 | |
Turkey | 6.5 | ↓ Nov-09 | |
United Kingdom | 0.5 | ↓ Mar-09 | |
Source: central banks |
Peak to recent trough |
Since recent trough |
Since previous Statement |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
United States | ||||
– Dow Jones | −54 | 57 | 5 | |
– S&P 500 | −57 | 62 | 5 | |
– NASDAQ | −56 | 73 | 7 | |
Euro area | ||||
– STOXX | −62 | 56 | 2 | |
United Kingdom | ||||
– FTSE | −48 | 50 | 3 | |
Japan | ||||
– Nikkei | −61 | 47 | 6 | |
Canada | ||||
– TSE 300 | −50 | 51 | 3 | |
China | ||||
– China A | −72 | 76 | −4 | |
Australia | ||||
– ASX 200 | −54 | 48 | 2 | |
MSCI indices | ||||
– Emerging Asia | −61 | 88 | 1 | |
– Latin America | −57 | 97 | 3 | |
– Emerging Europe | −71 | 108 | 12 | |
– World | −56 | 56 | 4 | |
Source: Bloomberg |
Since previous Statement |
Since recent peak (March 2009) |
|
---|---|---|
European euro | 7 | −9 |
Brazilian real | 7 | −23 |
Swiss franc | 4 | −9 |
UK pound sterling | 4 | −13 |
Swedish krona | 3 | −21 |
Australian dollar | 3 | −28 |
New Zealand dollar | 2 | −30 |
Singapore dollar | 1 | −9 |
Malaysian ringgit | 0 | −8 |
Japanese yen | 0 | −8 |
Chinese renminbi | 0 | 0 |
Canadian dollar | 0 | −18 |
Thai baht | −1 | −9 |
South African rand | −2 | −29 |
New Taiwan dollar | −2 | −8 |
South Korean won | −2 | −26 |
Indonesian rupiah | −2 | −23 |
Indian rupee | −2 | −11 |
Mexican peso | −3 | −17 |
Philippine peso | −3 | −5 |
Majors TWI | 3 | −12 |
Broad TWI | 2 | −10 |
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System |
Past year |
Since previous Statement |
Deviation from post-float average |
|
---|---|---|---|
Japanese yen | 40 | −2 | −15 |
US dollar | 37 | −2 | 22 |
Chinese renminbi | 37 | −3 | 29 |
Thai baht | 30 | −3 | 24 |
Indian rupee | 29 | −5 | 54 |
Malaysian ringgit | 29 | −3 | 36 |
Singapore dollar | 28 | −1 | 0 |
European euro | 27 | 4 | −4 |
Swiss franc | 25 | 2 | −12 |
UK pound sterling | 25 | 1 | 24 |
Canadian dollar | 18 | −3 | 1 |
South Korean won | 14 | −5 | 51 |
Indonesian rupiah | 7 | −5 | 123 |
South African rand | 3 | −5 | 51 |
New Zealand dollar | 0 | 0 | 2 |
TWI | 29 | −2 | 16 |
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters |
Three quarters to September quarter 2009 |
|
---|---|
Domestic final demand | 0.5 |
GNE | 1.5 |
Net exports(a) | 0.4 |
Statistical discrepancy(a) | −0.5 |
GDP | 1.5 |
Non-farm GDP | 1.5 |
(a) Contribution to GDP growth Source: ABS |
September quarter 2009 |
December quarter 2009 |
Year to December quarter 2009 |
Peak-to-trough | Trough-to-latest | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital cities | |||||
ABS(a) | 4.4 | 5.2 | 13.6 | −5.5 | 14.5 |
APM | 3.7 | 4.3 | 11.7 | −3.6 | 11.8 |
RP Data-Rismark | 2.8 | 2.8 | 10.2 | −3.0 | 10.2 |
Regional areas | |||||
APM | 2.6 | 5.9 | 10.6 | −4.8 | 10.6 |
RP Data-Rismark(a) | 1.0 | 1.9 | 5.1 | −3.8 | 5.1 |
(a) Detached houses only Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark |
Change since: | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Current level End January 2010 |
End October 2009 |
End April 2009 |
||
Cash rate | 3.75 | 0.5 | 0.75 | |
Housing loans | ||||
Prime-full doc | 6.07 | 0.61 | 0.88 | |
Prime low doc | 6.66 | 0.64 | 0.86 | |
Personal loans | 11.79 | 0.59 | 0.84 | |
Small business | ||||
Residentially secured | ||||
Term loans | 7.84 | 0.48 | 0.76 | |
Overdraft | 8.7 | 0.53 | 0.81 | |
Average actual rate(a) | 7.72 | 0.38 | 0.61 | |
Large business | ||||
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding(a) | 6.04 | 0.57 | 0.98 | |
(a) RBA estimate Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA |
March quarter 2009 |
June quarter 2009 |
September quarter 2009 |
December quarter 2009 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
Total credit | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Household | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
– Owner-occupier housing | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
– Investor housing | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
– Personal | −0.4 | −0.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
Business | 0.0 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
Source: RBA |
Quarterly | Year-ended | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
September quarter 2009 |
December quarter 2009 |
September quarter 2009 |
December quarter 2009 |
|
CPI | 1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
– Tradables | 0.2 | 0.1 | −0.5 | 1.4 |
– Tradables (ex food & fuel) | 0.3 | −0.3 | 2.1 | 2 |
– Non-tradables | 1.5 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Selected underlying measures | ||||
Weighted median | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
Trimmed mean | 0.8 | 0.6 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
CPI ex volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities |
0.9 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel Sources: ABS; RBA |
Year to December 2010 | Year to December 2011 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
August 2009 |
November 2009 |
February 2010 |
November 2009 |
February 2010 |
||
Market economists(a) | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | |
Union officials(b) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 | – | 3.0 | |
(a) RBA survey (b) Workplace Research Centre |
June 2009 | Dec 2009 | June 2010 | Dec 2010 | June 2011 | Dec 2011 | June 2012 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP growth | 0.6 | 2 | 2½ | 3¼ | 3½ | 3½ | 3½ |
Non-farm GDP growth | 0.6 | 2¼ | 2½ | 3¼ | 3½ | 3½ | 3½ |
CPI inflation | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3 | 2½ | 2½ | 2¾ | 2¾ |
Underlying inflation | 3¾ | 3¼ | 2½ | 2½ | 2½ | 2¾ | 2¾ |
(a) Actual GDP data for June 2009 and actual inflation data to Dec 2009. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.88, TWI at 69, WTI crude oil price at US$85 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$88 per barrel. Sources: ABS; RBA |
Counterparty | Long foreign currency/short AUD positions |
Short foreign currency/long AUD positions |
Net positions |
---|---|---|---|
Resident | 554 | −554 | 0 |
Non-resident | 991 | −703 | 288 |
Total | 1,545 | −1,257 | 288 |
(a) Positive values represent derivative positions under which the holder will receive foreign currency in exchange for Australian dollars at a predetermined exchange rate (that is, a long foreign currency/short AUD position). Negative values represent derivative positions under which the holder will receive Australian dollars in exchange for foreign currency at a predetermined exchange rate (that is, a short foreign currency/long AUD position). Source: ABS |