Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2010 List of tables

Chapters

  • Table 1: World GDP Growth
  • Table 2: Policy Rates
  • Table 3: Changes in International Share Prices
  • Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
  • Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
  • Table 6: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 7: National Housing Price Growth
  • Table 8: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
  • Table 9: Credit Aggregates
  • Table 10: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 11: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 12: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Boxes

  • Table C1: Residents' Gross Outstanding Foreign Exchange Derivative Positions
Table 1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent(a)
2008 2009 2010 2011
Estimate IMF forecasts(b)
United States 0.4 −2.4 2.7 2.4
Euro area 0.7 −3.9 1.0 1.6
Japan −1.2 −5.2 1.7 2.2
China 9.6 8.7 10.0 9.7
Other east Asia(c) 2.7 −0.3 4.8 5.0
India 7.5 6.9 7.7 7.8
World 3.0 −0.8 3.9 4.3
Australia's trading partners(d) 2.7 −0.3 4.4 4.6

(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Forecasts from the January World Economic Outlook Update
(c) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(d) Weighted using merchandise export shares

Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters

Table 2: Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent
Most recent
change
Euro area 1.00 ↓ May-09
Japan 0.10 ↓ Dec-08
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec-08
Brazil 8.75 ↓ Jul-09
Canada 0.25 ↓ Apr-09
China 5.31 ↓ Dec-08
India 4.75 ↓ Apr-09
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ Aug-09
Israel 1.25 ↑ Dec-09
Malaysia 2.00 ↓ Feb-09
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul-09
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Apr-09
Norway 1.75 ↑ Dec-09
Russia 8.75 ↓ Dec-09
South Africa 7.00 ↓ Aug-09
South Korea 2.00 ↓ Feb-09
Sweden 0.25 ↓ Jul-09
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar-09
Thailand 1.25 ↓ Apr-09
Turkey 6.5 ↓ Nov-09
United Kingdom 0.5 ↓ Mar-09
Source: central banks
Table 3: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Peak to
recent trough
Since recent
trough
Since previous
Statement
United States
– Dow Jones −54 57 5
– S&P 500 −57 62 5
– NASDAQ −56 73 7
Euro area
– STOXX −62 56 2
United Kingdom      
– FTSE −48 50 3
Japan
– Nikkei −61 47 6
Canada
– TSE 300 −50 51 3
China      
– China A −72 76 −4
Australia
– ASX 200 −54 48 2
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −61 88 1
– Latin America −57 97 3
– Emerging Europe −71 108 12
– World −56 56 4
Source: Bloomberg
Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
Since previous
Statement
Since recent peak
(March 2009)
European euro 7 −9
Brazilian real 7 −23
Swiss franc 4 −9
UK pound sterling 4 −13
Swedish krona 3 −21
Australian dollar 3 −28
New Zealand dollar 2 −30
Singapore dollar 1 −9
Malaysian ringgit 0 −8
Japanese yen 0 −8
Chinese renminbi 0 0
Canadian dollar 0 −18
Thai baht −1 −9
South African rand −2 −29
New Taiwan dollar −2 −8
South Korean won −2 −26
Indonesian rupiah −2 −23
Indian rupee −2 −11
Mexican peso −3 −17
Philippine peso −3 −5
Majors TWI 3 −12
Broad TWI 2 −10
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System
Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
Past year Since previous
Statement
Deviation from
post-float average
Japanese yen 40 −2 −15
US dollar 37 −2 22
Chinese renminbi 37 −3 29
Thai baht 30 −3 24
Indian rupee 29 −5 54
Malaysian ringgit 29 −3 36
Singapore dollar 28 −1 0
European euro 27 4 −4
Swiss franc 25 2 −12
UK pound sterling 25 1 24
Canadian dollar 18 −3 1
South Korean won 14 −5 51
Indonesian rupiah 7 −5 123
South African rand 3 −5 51
New Zealand dollar 0 0 2
TWI 29 −2 16
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 6: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
Three quarters
to September
quarter 2009
Domestic final demand 0.5
GNE 1.5
Net exports(a) 0.4
Statistical discrepancy(a) −0.5
GDP 1.5
Non-farm GDP 1.5

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 7: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
September
quarter 2009
December
quarter 2009
Year to December
quarter 2009
Peak-to-trough Trough-to-latest
Capital cities
ABS(a) 4.4 5.2 13.6 −5.5 14.5
APM 3.7 4.3 11.7 −3.6 11.8
RP Data-Rismark 2.8 2.8 10.2 −3.0 10.2
Regional areas
APM 2.6 5.9 10.6 −4.8 10.6
RP Data-Rismark(a) 1.0 1.9 5.1 −3.8 5.1

(a) Detached houses only

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 8: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Change since:
Current level
End January 2010
End October
2009
End April
2009
Cash rate 3.75 0.5 0.75
Housing loans
Prime-full doc 6.07 0.61 0.88
Prime low doc 6.66 0.64 0.86
Personal loans 11.79 0.59 0.84
Small business
Residentially secured
Term loans 7.84 0.48 0.76
Overdraft 8.7 0.53 0.81
Average actual rate(a) 7.72 0.38 0.61
Large business
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding(a) 6.04 0.57 0.98

(a) RBA estimate

Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA

Table 9: Credit Aggregates
Average monthly growth, per cent
March
quarter
2009
June
quarter
2009
September
quarter
2009
December
quarter
2009
Total credit 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Household 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
– Owner-occupier housing 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
– Investor housing 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5
– Personal −0.4 −0.5 0.2 0.5
Business 0.0 −0.6 −0.9 −0.9
Source: RBA
Table 10: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Quarterly Year-ended
September
quarter 2009
December
quarter 2009
September
quarter 2009
December
quarter 2009
CPI 1 0.5 1.3 2.1
– Tradables 0.2 0.1 −0.5 1.4
– Tradables (ex food & fuel) 0.3 −0.3 2.1 2
– Non-tradables 1.5 0.8 2.3 2.6
Selected underlying measures
Weighted median 0.8 0.7 3.7 3.6
Trimmed mean 0.8 0.6 3.2 3.2
CPI ex volatile items(a)
and deposit & loan facilities
0.9 0.5 3.5 3.4

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 11: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2010 Year to December 2011
August
2009
November
2009
February
2010
November
2009
February
2010
Market economists(a) 2.4 2.2 2.3   2.7 2.9
Union officials(b) 2.5 2.6 3.0   3.0
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 12: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent, over year to quarter shown
June 2009 Dec 2009 June 2010 Dec 2010 June 2011 Dec 2011 June 2012
GDP growth 0.6 2
Non-farm GDP growth 0.6
CPI inflation 1.5 2.1 3
Underlying inflation

(a) Actual GDP data for June 2009 and actual inflation data to Dec 2009. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.88, TWI at 69, WTI crude oil price at US$85 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$88 per barrel.

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table C1: Residents' Gross Outstanding Foreign Exchange Derivative Positions
By counterparty, notional value, A$ billion, as at 31 March 2009(a)
Counterparty Long foreign
currency/short
AUD positions
Short foreign
currency/long
AUD positions
Net positions
Resident 554 −554 0
Non-resident 991 −703 288
Total 1,545 −1,257 288

(a) Positive values represent derivative positions under which the holder will receive foreign currency in exchange for Australian dollars at a predetermined exchange rate (that is, a long foreign currency/short AUD position). Negative values represent derivative positions under which the holder will receive Australian dollars in exchange for foreign currency at a predetermined exchange rate (that is, a short foreign currency/long AUD position).

Source: ABS