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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2010

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1: World GDP Growth

Table 2: Policy Rates

Table 3: Changes in International Share Prices

Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies

Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 6: Demand and Output Growth

Table 7: National Housing Price Growth

Table 8: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates

Table 9: Credit Aggregates

Table 10: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Table 11: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 12: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

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Boxes

Table C1: Residents’ Gross Outstanding Foreign Exchange Derivative Positions

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Table 1: World GDP Growth
Year-average, per cent(a)
  2008 2009 2010 2011
  Estimate IMF forecasts(b)
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Forecasts from the January World Economic Outlook Update
(c) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(d) Weighted using merchandise export shares
Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
United States 0.4 −2.4 2.7 2.4
Euro area 0.7 −3.9 1.0 1.6
Japan −1.2 −5.2 1.7 2.2
China 9.6 8.7 10.0 9.7
Other east Asia(c) 2.7 −0.3 4.8 5.0
India 7.5 6.9 7.7 7.8
World 3.0 −0.8 3.9 4.3
Australia’s trading partners(d) 2.7 −0.3 4.4 4.6
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Table 2: Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent 		Most recent
change
Source: central banks
Euro area 1.00 ↓ May-09
Japan 0.10 ↓ Dec-08
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec-08
 
Brazil 8.75 ↓ Jul-09
Canada 0.25 ↓ Apr-09
China 5.31 ↓ Dec-08
India 4.75 ↓ Apr-09
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ Aug-09
Israel 1.25 ↑ Dec-09
Malaysia 2.00 ↓ Feb-09
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul-09
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Apr-09
Norway 1.75 ↑ Dec-09
Russia 8.75 ↓ Dec-09
South Africa 7.00 ↓ Aug-09
South Korea 2.00 ↓ Feb-09
Sweden 0.25 ↓ Jul-09
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar-09
Thailand 1.25 ↓ Apr-09
Turkey 6.5 ↓ Nov-09
United Kingdom 0.5 ↓ Mar-09
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Table 3: Changes in International Share Prices Per cent
  Peak to
recent trough 		Since recent
trough 		Since previous
Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones −54 57 5
– S&P 500 −57 62 5
– NASDAQ −56 73 7
Euro area
– STOXX −62 56 2
United Kingdom      
– FTSE −48 50 3
Japan
– Nikkei −61 47 6
Canada
– TSE 300 −50 51 3
China      
– China A −72 76 −4
Australia
– ASX 200 −54 48 2
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −61 88 1
– Latin America −57 97 3
– Emerging Europe −71 108 12
– World −56 56 4
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Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
  Since previous
Statement		 Since recent peak
(March 2009)
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System
European euro 7 −9
Brazilian real 7 −23
Swiss franc 4 −9
UK pound sterling 4 −13
Swedish krona 3 −21
Australian dollar 3 −28
New Zealand dollar 2 −30
Singapore dollar 1 −9
Malaysian ringgit 0 −8
Japanese yen 0 −8
Chinese renminbi 0 0
Canadian dollar 0 −18
Thai baht −1 −9
South African rand −2 −29
New Taiwan dollar −2 −8
South Korean won −2 −26
Indonesian rupiah −2 −23
Indian rupee −2 −11
Mexican peso −3 −17
Philippine peso −3 −5
Majors TWI 3 −12
Broad TWI 2 −10
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Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies Percentage change
  Past year Since previous
Statement 		Deviation from
post-float average
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Japanese yen 40 −2 −15
US dollar 37 −2 22
Chinese renminbi 37 −3 29
Thai baht 30 −3 24
Indian rupee 29 −5 54
Malaysian ringgit 29 −3 36
Singapore dollar 28 −1 0
European euro 27 4 −4
Swiss franc 25 2 −12
UK pound sterling 25 1 24
Canadian dollar 18 −3 1
South Korean won 14 −5 51
Indonesian rupiah 7 −5 123
South African rand 3 −5 51
New Zealand dollar 0 0 2
TWI 29 −2 16
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Table 6: Demand and Output Growth Per cent
  Three quarters
to September
quarter 2009
(a) Contribution to GDP growth
Source: ABS
Domestic final demand 0.5
GNE 1.5
Net exports(a) 0.4
Statistical discrepancy(a) −0.5
GDP 1.5
Non-farm GDP 1.5
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Table 7: National Housing Price Growth Per cent
  September
quarter 2009		 December
quarter 2009		 Year to December
quarter 2009		 Peak-to-trough Trough-to-latest
(a) Detached houses only
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Capital cities
ABS(a) 4.4 5.2 13.6 −5.5 14.5
APM 3.7 4.3 11.7 −3.6 11.8
RP Data-Rismark 2.8 2.8 10.2 −3.0 10.2
Regional areas
APM 2.6 5.9 10.6 −4.8 10.6
RP Data-Rismark(a) 1.0 1.9 5.1 −3.8 5.1
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Table 8: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates Per cent
    Change since:
  Current level
End January 2010		 End October
2009		 End April
2009
(a) RBA estimate
Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Cash rate 3.75 0.5 0.75
Housing loans
Prime-full doc 6.07 0.61 0.88
Prime low doc 6.66 0.64 0.86
Personal loans 11.79 0.59 0.84
Small business
Residentially secured
Term loans 7.84 0.48 0.76
Overdraft 8.7 0.53 0.81
Average actual rate(a) 7.72 0.38 0.61
Large business
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding(a) 6.04 0.57 0.98
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Table 9: Credit Aggregates Average monthly growth, per cent
  March
quarter
2009 		June
quarter
2009 		September
quarter
2009 		December
quarter
2009
Source: RBA
Total credit 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
Household 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
– Owner-occupier housing 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
– Investor housing 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5
– Personal −0.4 −0.5 0.2 0.5
Business 0.0 −0.6 −0.9 −0.9
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Table 10: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  Quarterly Year-ended
  September
quarter 2009 		December
quarter 2009 		September
quarter 2009 		December
quarter 2009
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 1 0.5 1.3 2.1
– Tradables 0.2 0.1 −0.5 1.4
– Tradables (ex food & fuel) 0.3 −0.3 2.1 2
– Non-tradables 1.5 0.8 2.3 2.6
Selected underlying measures
Weighted median 0.8 0.7 3.7 3.6
Trimmed mean 0.8 0.6 3.2 3.2
CPI ex volatile items(a)
and deposit & loan facilities		 0.9 0.5 3.5 3.4
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Table 11: Median Inflation Expectations Per cent
  Year to December 2010   Year to December 2011
  August
2009 		November
2009 		February
2010 		  November
2009 		February
2010
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 2.4 2.2 2.3   2.7 2.9
Union officials(b) 2.5 2.6 3.0   – 3.0
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Table 12: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a) Per cent, over year to quarter shown
  June 2009 Dec 2009 June 2010 Dec 2010 June 2011 Dec 2011 June 2012
(a) Actual GDP data for June 2009 and actual inflation data to Dec 2009. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.88, TWI at 69, WTI crude oil price at US$85 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$88 per barrel.
Sources: ABS; RBA
GDP growth 0.6 2 2½ 3¼ 3½ 3½ 3½
Non-farm GDP growth 0.6 2¼ 2½ 3¼ 3½ 3½ 3½
CPI inflation 1.5 2.1 3 2½ 2½ 2¾ 2¾
Underlying inflation 3¾ 3¼ 2½ 2½ 2½ 2¾ 2¾
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Table C1: Residents’ Gross Outstanding Foreign Exchange Derivative Positions By counterparty, notional value, A$ billion, as at 31 March 2009(a)
Counterparty Long foreign
currency/short
AUD positions		 Short foreign
currency/long
AUD positions		 Net positions
(a) Positive values represent derivative positions under which the holder will receive foreign currency in exchange for Australian dollars at a predetermined exchange rate (that is, a long foreign currency/short AUD position). Negative values represent derivative positions under which the holder will receive Australian dollars in exchange for foreign currency at a predetermined exchange rate (that is, a short foreign currency/long AUD position).
Source: ABS
Resident 554 −554 0
Non-resident 991 −703 288
Total 1,545 −1,257 288
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