Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2007 List of tables
Chapters
- Table 1: World GDP
- Table 2: Commodity Prices
- Table 3: Changes in Major Country Share Prices
- Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
- Table 5: Change in Renminbi against Other Currencies
- Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
- Table 7: Demand and Output
- Table 8: House Prices
- Table 9: Volume of Farm Production
- Table 10: Labour Market by State
- Table 11: Intermediaries' Variable Mortgage Rates
- Table 12: Banks' Business Lending Rates
- Table 13: Financial Aggregates
- Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices
- Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations
- Table 16: RBA Inflation Forecasts
Boxes
- Table A1: Urban Fixed-asset Investment Expenditure in China
- Table A2: China's Production and Imports
- Table D1: Banks' Sources and Uses of Funds
2006 | 2007 | 2008 | |
---|---|---|---|
IMF forecasts (October 2007) |
|||
United States | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Euro area | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
Japan | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
China | 11.1 | 11.5 | 10.0 |
Other east Asia(b) | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.9 |
India | 9.6 | 8.9 | 8.4 |
World | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.8 |
Australia's trading partners(c) | 5.2 | 5.1 | 4.5 |
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Financial |
Three months to October 2007 |
Year to October 2007 |
|
---|---|---|
RBA index | 3 | 6 |
Rural | 17 | 27 |
– Wheat | 36 | 51 |
– Beef & veal | 3 | −3 |
– Wool | 6 | 44 |
Base metals | −7 | −4 |
– Aluminium | −12 | −13 |
– Copper | −1 | 1 |
– Nickel | −8 | −9 |
– Zinc | −18 | −26 |
– Lead | 19 | 131 |
Other resources | 3 | 3 |
– Coking coal(a) | −1 | −12 |
– Steaming coal(a) | 4 | 9 |
– Iron ore(a) | −5 | 3 |
– Gold | 12 | 22 |
Memo item | ||
Oil in US$(b) | ||
– WTI | 16 | 46 |
– Tapis | 12 | 39 |
(a) Latest available data are for September. Sources: ABS; AWB; AWEX; Bloomberg; Meat and Livestock Australia; RBA |
Since 2000 peak | Past year | Since previous Statement |
|
---|---|---|---|
United States | |||
– Dow Jones | 13 | 9 | −3 |
– S&P 500 | −3 | 7 | −1 |
– NASDAQ | −46 | 16 | 5 |
Euro area | |||
– STOXX | −10 | 9 | 0 |
United Kingdom | |||
– FTSE | −8 | 2 | 0 |
Japan | |||
– TOPIX | −11 | −4 | −7 |
Canada | |||
– TSE 300 | 24 | 15 | 3 |
Australia | |||
– ASX 200 | 92 | 22 | 10 |
MSCI Emerging Asia | 82 | 56 | 19 |
MSCI Latin America | 273 | 45 | 12 |
MSCI World | 6 | 12 | 3 |
Source: Bloomberg |
Past year | Since previous Statement |
|
---|---|---|
Brazil | −19 | −8 |
Canada | −18 | −11 |
Australia | −17 | −9 |
New Zealand | −14 | −1 |
Euro area | −13 | −6 |
Philippines | −13 | −4 |
Sweden | −12 | −6 |
India | −12 | −3 |
South Africa | −11 | −7 |
United Kingdom | −9 | −3 |
Malaysia | −9 | −3 |
Switzerland | −9 | −5 |
Singapore | −8 | −5 |
Thailand | −7 | 0 |
China | −5 | −2 |
Japan | −4 | −6 |
South Korea | −3 | −2 |
Taiwan | −1 | −2 |
Mexico | −1 | −1 |
Indonesia | 0 | −1 |
Majors TWI | −13 | −8 |
Broad TWI | −9 | −5 |
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Reuters |
Since end 2000 |
Since revaluation(a) |
Past year |
|
---|---|---|---|
United States | 11 | 9 | 6 |
Japan | 10 | 11 | 1 |
Euro area | −28 | −9 | −8 |
Taiwan | 9 | 12 | 4 |
Korea | −20 | −3 | 2 |
Hong Kong | 11 | 9 | 5 |
Malaysia | −3 | −5 | −3 |
United Kingdom | −21 | −9 | −4 |
Singapore | −8 | −5 | −2 |
Canada | −31 | −17 | −13 |
Russia | −3 | −7 | −3 |
Thailand | 9 | 12 | 4 |
Australia | −34 | −12 | −13 |
Mexico | 24 | 10 | 5 |
India | −6 | −1 | −7 |
TWI | −5 | 3 | 0 |
(a) 21 July 2005 Sources: BIS; Bloomberg; Reuters |
Past year | Since previous Statement |
Deviation from post-float average |
|
---|---|---|---|
Indonesia | 20 | 5 | 156 |
US | 20 | 7 | 30 |
Taiwan | 18 | 6 | 35 |
South Korea | 16 | 5 | 27 |
Japan | 15 | 1 | 10 |
China | 13 | 6 | 51 |
PNG | 13 | 3 | 105 |
Singapore | 11 | 2 | 7 |
Switzerland | 9 | 2 | −3 |
UK | 9 | 4 | 0 |
South Africa | 6 | −1 | 47 |
Sweden | 6 | 1 | 11 |
Euro area | 5 | 1 | −5 |
Philippines | 4 | 3 | 32 |
New Zealand | 4 | 6 | −3 |
Canada | −1 | −5 | −8 |
TWI | 12 | 4 | 23 |
Sources: RBA; Reuters |
March quarter 2007 |
June quarter 2007 |
Year to June quarter 2007 |
|
---|---|---|---|
Domestic final demand | 1.8 | 1.8 | 5.6 |
Change in inventories(a) | 0.6 | −0.4 | 0.9 |
GNE(b) | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5.8 |
Net exports(a) | −0.4 | −0.1 | −1.7 |
GDP | 1.6 | 0.9 | 4.3 |
Non-farm GDP | 1.8 | 1.2 | 5.2 |
Farm GDP | −6.8 | −10.9 | −26.3 |
Memo item: | |||
Real GDP adjusted for changes in the terms of trade | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5.6 |
(a) Contributions to GDP growth Sources: ABS; RBA |
June quarter |
September quarter |
Year to September quarter |
|
---|---|---|---|
Sydney | 3.4 | 1.5 | 5.2 |
Melbourne | 5.9 | 6.7 | 17.8 |
Brisbane | 6.3 | 4.0 | 18.1 |
Adelaide | 5.7 | 5.1 | 16.2 |
Perth | −2.2 | 1.1 | 2.8 |
Canberra | 3.7 | 3.9 | 11.2 |
Hobart | 2.8 | 3.9 | 11.6 |
Darwin | −0.4 | 5.1 | 13.1 |
Australia | 3.7 | 3.5 | 10.6 |
Source: ABS |
Share of gross production | Growth | ||
---|---|---|---|
2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08(f) | |
Crops | 45 | −31 | 7 |
– Cereals | 17 | −61 | 33 |
– Non-cereal crops | 29 | −13 | 0 |
Livestock products | 43 | −5 | 0 |
Farm GDP(a) | −25 | 5 | |
(a) Gross farm production less farm inputs Sources: ABARE; ABS; RBA |
Employment growth | Unemployment rate | ||
---|---|---|---|
Year to October 2007 | October 2006 | October 2007 | |
NSW | 1.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
Victoria | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
Queensland | 3.1 | 4.2 | 3.8 |
WA | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
SA | 1.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
Tasmania | 2.3 | 6.1 | 5.3 |
Australia | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.3 |
Source: ABS |
Per cent of outstanding loans |
Change Basis points | Level Per cent | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug | Sep | Oct | |||
Cash rate | 25 | 0 | 0 | 6.50 | |
Prime full-doc | 91 | ||||
Banks | 78 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 7.65 |
Credit unions and building societies |
5 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 7.43 |
Mortgage originators | 8 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 7.83 |
Prime low-doc | 8 | ||||
Banks | 5 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 8.04 |
Mortgage originators | 3 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 8.19 |
Non-conforming | 1 | 40 | 62 | 0 | 9.90 |
Sources: ABS; Cannex; RBA |
Share Per cent | Change Basis points | Level Per cent | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug | Sep | Oct | Oct | ||
Cash rate | 25 | 0 | 0 | 6.50 | |
Large loans(b) | 65 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 7.28 |
– bills | 29 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 7.42 |
– variable-rate | 27 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 7.27 |
– fixed-rate | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6.82 |
Small loans(b) | 35 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8.34 |
– bills | 7 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 7.69 |
– variable-rate | 18 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 8.85 |
– fixed-rate | 9 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7.88 |
(a) Interest rates are RBA estimates. Sources: ABS; Cannex; RBA |
December quarter 2006 |
March quarter 2007 |
June quarter 2007 |
September quarter 2007 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|
Total credit | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Household | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
– Owner-occupier housing | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
– Investor housing | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
– Personal | 0.7 | 0.9 | 2.2 | −0.1 |
Business | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
Broad money | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Source: RBA |
Quarterly | Year-ended | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
June quarter 2007 |
September quarter 2007 |
June quarter 2007 |
September quarter 2007 |
|
CPI | 1.2 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
– Tradables | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | −0.3 |
– Tradables (ex food and petrol) | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
– Non-tradables | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
Underlying measures | ||||
Weighted median | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
Trimmed mean | 0.9 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
CPI ex volatile items(a) | 0.7 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol Sources: ABS; RBA |
Year to June 2008 | Year to June 2009 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
May 2007 |
August 2007 |
November 2007 |
August 2007 |
November 2007 |
|
Market economists(a) | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
Union officials(b) | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
(a) RBA survey (b) Workplace Research Centre |
Dec 2006 |
June 2007 |
Dec 2007 |
June 2008 |
Dec 2008 |
June 2009 |
Dec 2009 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer price index | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2¾ | 3¼ | 3 | 2¾–3 | 2¾–3 |
Underlying inflation | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3¼ | 3¼ | 3 | 2¾–3 | 2¾–3 |
(a) Actual data to September 2007. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.93, TWI at 73, cash rate at 6.75 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$90 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$92 per barrel. Sources: ABS; RBA |
Boxes
2004 | 2006 | |
---|---|---|
Total(a) | 37 | 42 |
Of which: | ||
Primary industry | 1 | 1 |
Secondary industry | 14 | 18 |
– Manufacturing | 9 | 12 |
– Utilities | 3 | 4 |
– Other | 2 | 2 |
Tertiary industry | 22 | 24 |
– Real estate | 9 | 10 |
– Infrastructure | 4 | 5 |
– Water & environmental management | 3 | 3 |
– Other | 6 | 6 |
(a) Includes land sales Source: CEIC |
Share of world | Annual growth | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2001 | 2006 | 2006 | |||
Production | |||||
Steel | 17 | 35 | 20 | ||
Electricity | 12 | 17(a) | 13(a) | ||
Aluminium | 14 | 28 | 20 | ||
Imports | |||||
Coal | 1 | 4 | 46 | ||
Copper | 12 | 12 | −32 | ||
Iron ore | 18 | 41 | 19 | ||
Nickel | 5 | 22 | 8 | ||
(a) Data for 2005
Sources: ABARE; AME Mineral Economics; International Aluminium Institute;
International Iron and Steel Institute; |
Level in July 2007 | Change over August and September 2007 | ||
---|---|---|---|
$ billion | $ billion | Per cent | |
Sources of funds | 1,804 | 143 | 7.9 |
Domestic deposits | 759 | 29 | 3.8 |
Domestic capital markets | 401 | 73 | 18.3 |
– Certificates of deposit | 216 | 66 | 30.6 |
– Other | 185 | 8 | 4.1 |
Offshore capital markets | 486 | 13 | 2.7 |
Other liabilities | 158 | 27 | 17 |
Uses of funds | 1,918 | 145 | 7.6 |
Domestic loans | 1,221 | 40 | 3.3 |
Domestic debt securities and other financial assets |
354 | 69 | 19.5 |
– Certificates of deposit | 71 | 49 | 69.8 |
– Other | 283 | 20 | 7 |
Offshore assets | 149 | 17 | 11.1 |
Other assets | 194 | 19 | 9.8 |
(a) Excludes securitisation Sources: APRA; RBA |