Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2016-02 Disagreement about Inflation Expectations

Contents

• Introduction
• Why Does Disagreement Arise?
• Data Sources
• Descriptive Analysis
• Time-series Variation in Disagreement
• Are Consumer Expectations More Weakly Anchored?
• Is Disagreement a Proxy for Forecast Uncertainty?
• Conclusions
• Appendix A: Extending the Model of Consumer Inflation Expectations
• References

We would like to thank Andrea Brischetto, James Hansen, Greg Kaplan, Christopher Kent and John Simon for helpful comments. We are grateful to Dilhan Perera for his work on individual inflation experience on which we have drawn.