Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2012
List of tables
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Chapters
Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth
Table 2.1: Policy Rates
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves
Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Boxes
Table B1: Greek Government Debt Holdings
Table C1: Resource Exports
Table E1: 10-year Government Bond Yields
| Change since previous Statement |
Change over the past year |
|
|---|---|---|
| (a) RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP) components except
oil and bulk commodities, which are spot prices; latest available (b) Average of Brent and Tapis crude oil prices Sources: Bloomberg; RBA |
||
| Bulk commodities | ||
| – Iron ore | 1 | −18 |
| − Coking coal | −1 | −31 |
| – Thermal coal | −16 | −16 |
| Rural | −5 | −9 |
| – Beef | 1 | 7 |
| – Cotton | −5 | −41 |
| – Wheat | −10 | −21 |
| – Wool | −8 | −13 |
| Base metals | −6 | −15 |
| – Aluminium | −7 | −22 |
| – Copper | −2 | −6 |
| – Lead | −1 | −11 |
| – Nickel | −20 | −33 |
| – Zinc | −5 | −6 |
| Gold | −5 | 12 |
| Oil(b) | ||
| – US$ terms | 2 | −4 |
| RBA ICP | −1 | −8 |
| Current level Per cent |
Most recent change |
Change from 2011 peak Basis points |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source: central banks | ||||
| Euro area | 1.00 | ↓ | Dec 11 | −50 |
| Japan | 0.05 | ↓ | Oct 10 | – |
| United States | 0.125 | ↓ | Dec 08 | – |
| Brazil | 9.00 | ↓ | Apr 12 | −350 |
| Canada | 1.00 | ↑ | Sep 10 | – |
| China | 6.56 | ↑ | Jul 11 | – |
| India | 8.00 | ↓ | Apr 12 | −50 |
| Indonesia | 5.75 | ↓ | Feb 12 | −100 |
| Israel | 2.50 | ↓ | Jan 12 | −75 |
| Malaysia | 3.00 | ↑ | May 11 | – |
| Mexico | 4.50 | ↓ | Jul 09 | – |
| New Zealand | 2.50 | ↓ | Mar 11 | −50 |
| Norway | 1.50 | ↓ | Mar 12 | −75 |
| Russia | 8.00 | ↓ | Dec 11 | −25 |
| South Africa | 5.50 | ↓ | Nov 10 | – |
| South Korea | 3.25 | ↑ | Jun 11 | – |
| Sweden | 1.50 | ↓ | Feb 12 | −50 |
| Switzerland | 0.00 | ↓ | Aug 11 | −25 |
| Taiwan | 1.875 | ↑ | Jun 11 | – |
| Thailand | 3.00 | ↓ | Jan 12 | −50 |
| United Kingdom | 0.50 | ↓ | Mar 09 | – |
| Over 2011 |
Since end 2011 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Source: Bloomberg | ||
| United States | ||
| – Dow Jones | 6 | 9 |
| – S&P 500 | 0 | 12 |
| – NASDAQ | −2 | 17 |
| Euro area | ||
| – STOXX | −18 | 3 |
| United Kingdom | ||
| – FTSE | −6 | 3 |
| Japan | ||
| – Nikkei | −17 | 11 |
| Canada | ||
| – TSE 300 | −11 | 2 |
| Australia | ||
| – ASX 200 | −15 | 9 |
| China | ||
| – China A | −22 | 11 |
| MSCI indices | ||
| – Emerging Asia | −16 | 12 |
| – Latin America | −13 | 8 |
| – Emerging Europe | −19 | 5 |
| – World | −9 | 9 |
| Over the past year |
Since previous Statement |
|
|---|---|---|
| Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System | ||
| Brazilian real | 21 | 12 |
| Indian rupee | 19 | 8 |
| Australian dollar | 6 | 4 |
| Japanese yen | −1 | 4 |
| Indonesian rupiah | 8 | 4 |
| New Zealand dollar | −1 | 3 |
| South African rand | 17 | 2 |
| Mexican peso | 12 | 2 |
| South Korean won | 6 | 2 |
| Swedish krona | 12 | 2 |
| European euro | 13 | 1 |
| Malaysian ringgit | 2 | 1 |
| Thai baht | 3 | 0 |
| Swiss franc | 6 | 0 |
| Philippine peso | −1 | 0 |
| Chinese renminbi | −3 | 0 |
| Singapore dollar | 1 | −1 |
| New Taiwan dollar | 2 | −1 |
| Canadian dollar | 4 | −1 |
| UK pound sterling | 3 | −2 |
| Majors TWI | 6 | 1 |
| Broad TWI | 5 | 1 |
| Three-month-ended change | Level | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| US$ equivalent (billions) |
Per cent | US$ equivalent (billions) |
|
| (a) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets) Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; IMF; RBA |
|||
| China(a) | 124 | 3.9 | 3,305 |
| Japan | −10 | −0.8 | 1,210 |
| Russia | 15 | 3.4 | 450 |
| Taiwan | 8 | 2.2 | 394 |
| Brazil | 12 | 3.6 | 355 |
| South Korea | 10 | 3.3 | 308 |
| India | −3 | −1.1 | 260 |
| Thailand | 4 | 2.2 | 168 |
| Indonesia | 0 | −0.1 | 103 |
| Turkey | 2 | 2.6 | 79 |
| Chile | −2 | −6.1 | 38 |
| Over 2011 |
Since end 2011 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters | Japanese yen | −5 | 5 |
| Indonesian rupiah | 0 | 3 |
| US dollar | 0 | 1 |
| Chinese renminbi | −5 | 1 |
| European euro | 3 | 0 |
| Thai baht | 5 | −1 |
| Swiss franc | 0 | −1 |
| South Korean won | 3 | −2 |
| Canadian dollar | 2 | −2 |
| UK pound sterling | 0 | −3 |
| New Zealand dollar | 0 | −3 |
| Malaysian ringgit | 3 | −3 |
| Singapore dollar | 1 | −3 |
| TWI | 0 | 1 |
| January–June 2011 | July–December 2011 | |
|---|---|---|
| (a) Contribution to GDP growth Source: ABS |
||
| Domestic final demand | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| – Private demand | 4.9 | 7.3 |
| – Public demand | 2.0 | −3.6 |
| Change in inventories(a) | 0.6 | −0.2 |
| GNE | 5.3 | 4.2 |
| Net exports(a) | −1.9 | −0.6 |
| GDP | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Nominal GDP | 7.4 | 3.8 |
| Real GDI | 5.7 | 2.0 |
| 6 months to September 2011 |
6 months to March 2012 |
Year to March 2012 |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| (a) Detached houses only (b) Quarterly measures Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark |
|||
| Capital cities | |||
| ABS(a),(b) | −2.9 | −1.7 | −4.5 |
| APM(b) | −2.4 | −0.1 | −2.5 |
| RP Data-Rismark | −2.6 | −1.9 | −4.4 |
| Regional areas | |||
| APM(b) | −0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| RP Data-Rismark(a) | −0.6 | −0.8 | −1.4 |
| Level at 30 April 2012 |
Change since: | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| February Statement |
End October 2011 |
||
|
(a) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on $250,000 full-doc loans (b) Rates on outstanding, as opposed to new, business lending Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA |
|||
| Housing loans(a) | 6.72 | 0.14 | −0.30 |
| Personal loans | 13.17 | 0.07 | −0.04 |
| Small business | |||
| Residentially secured | |||
| – Term loans | 8.62 | 0.10 | −0.37 |
| – Overdraft | 9.48 | 0.10 | −0.37 |
| Average rate(b) | 8.43 | 0.10 | −0.30 |
| Large business | |||
| Average rate(b) (variable-rate and bill funding) |
6.41 | −0.15 | −0.50 |
| Average monthly growth | Year to March 2012 |
||
|---|---|---|---|
| December quarter 2011 |
March quarter 2012 |
||
| Source: RBA | |||
| Total credit | 0.3 | 0.4 | 3.4 |
| – Owner-occupier housing | 0.5 | 0.4 | 5.5 |
| – Investor housing | 0.3 | 0.5 | 4.8 |
| – Personal | −0.1 | 0.1 | −1.5 |
| – Business | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.3 |
| Broad money | 0.5 | 0.5 | 7.1 |
| Quarterly(a) | Year-ended(b) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December quarter 2011 |
March quarter 2012 | December quarter 2011 |
March quarter 2012 |
||
|
(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data (b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median (c) Excludes deposit and loan facilities to June 2011 (d) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel Sources: ABS; RBA |
|||||
| CPI | 0.0 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | |
| Seasonally adjusted CPI | 0.2 | −0.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | |
| – Tradables | −1.0 | −1.6 | 1.8 | −1.5 | |
| – Tradables (excl food, fuel and tobacco) |
−0.6 | −0.9 | −1.1 | −1.7 | |
| – Non-tradables(c) | 1.0 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | |
| Selected underlying measures | |||||
| Trimmed mean | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | |
| Weighted median | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | |
| CPI excl volatile items(c),(d) | 0.5 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | |
| Year to December 2012 | Year to December 2013 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) Excluding carbon price Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre |
|||||
| November 2011 |
February 2012 |
May 2012 |
February 2012 |
May 2012 |
|
| Market economists | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Union officials | 3.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Year-ended | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2011 | June 2012 |
Dec 2012 |
June 2013 |
Dec 2013 |
June 2014 |
|
|
(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.03, TWI at 76, Tapis crude oil price at US$125 per barrel Sources: ABS; RBA |
||||||
| GDP growth | 2.3 | 2¾ | 3 | 2½–3½ | 2½–3½ | 3–4 |
| Non-farm GDP growth | 2.5 | 2¾ | 3 | 2½–3½ | 2½–3½ | 3–4 |
| CPI inflation | 3.1 | 1¼ | 2½ | 2½–3½ | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Underlying inflation | 2½ | 2 | 2¼ | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| CPI inflation (excl carbon price) |
3.1 | 1¼ | 1¾ | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Underlying inflation (excl carbon price) |
2½ | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Year-average | ||||||
| 2011 | 2011/12 | 2012 | 2012/13 | 2013 | 2013/14 | |
| GDP growth | 2.0 | 2¾ | 3 | 3–3½ | 3–3½ | 3–4 |
| € billion | Share of total Per cent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Sources: European Commission; RBA | ||
| Total | 356 | – |
| of which: | ||
| PSI eligible | 206 | 58 |
| – Greek law bonds | 177 | 50 |
| – Foreign-law bonds and government- guaranteed securities |
29 | 8 |
| Other | 150 | 42 |
| – ECB bond holdings | 57 | 16 |
| – EU loans | 53 | 16 |
| – IMF loans | 21 | 6 |
| – Bills and other | 19 | 5 |
| Share of total export values in 2011 |
Volumes growth over 2011 |
||
|---|---|---|---|
|
(a) Imported gold represented 37 per cent of gold exports Sources: ABS; RBA |
|||
| Metal ores and minerals | 28 | 7.9 | |
| – Iron ore | 20 | 10.6 | |
| Coal | 15 | −2.3 | |
| ‘Other’ mineral fuels | 8 | −11.2 | |
| Gold(a) | 5 | −3.3 | |
| Other metals | 4 | 3.6 | |
| Total | 60 | 1.1 | |
| Credit rating(a) | Yield | Spreads to swap | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Per cent | Basis points | ||
|
(a) Minimum long-term local currency issuer rating from Moody's, Standard &
Poor's and Fitch Source: Bloomberg |
|||
| Australia | AAA | 3.64 | −83 |
| Canada | AAA | 2.02 | −43 |
| Germany | AAA | 1.61 | −52 |
| United Kingdom | AAA | 2.05 | −32 |
| France | AA+ | 2.96 | 82 |
| New Zealand | AA+ | 3.71 | −25 |
| United States | AA+ | 1.93 | −13 |
| Japan | AA− | 0.89 | −2 |
| Italy | BBB+ | 5.53 | 324 |
