Skip to content

RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2011

List of tables

Go To

Chapters

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth

Table 2.1: Policy Rates

Table 2.2: Federal Reserve Holdings of US Treasury Bonds

Table 2.3:Changes in International Share Prices

Table 2.4: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies

Table 2.5: Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table 2.6: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 3.1: Output and Factor Input Growth

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth

Table 3.3: Value of LNG Projects Under Construction in 2011

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

back to top

Boxes

Table C1: Consumer Price Index – Base Period Expenditure Weights

Table C2: Selected Underlying Inflation Measures

back to top
Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a) SDR terms, per cent
  Change since previous Statement Change over the past year
(a) RBA Index of Commodity Prices components except oil and bulk commodities; latest available
(b) Spot prices
(c) Average of WTI and Tapis crude oil prices
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Bulk commodities(b)    
– Iron ore −34 −20
– Coking coal −21 6
– Thermal coal −1 12
Rural −3 3
– Beef 4 10
– Cotton −3 −28
– Wheat −4 3
– Wool −10 30
Base metals −14 −11
– Aluminium −12 −12
– Copper −14 −5
– Lead −17 −17
– Nickel −20 −21
– Zinc −15 −19
Gold 8 29
Oil(c) 6 23
– US$ terms 3 23
RBA ICP −4 19
back to top
Table 2.1: Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent		   Most
recent
change		 Cumulative
increase
Basis points
Source: central banks
Euro area 1.50 ↑ Jul 11 50
Japan 0.05 ↓ Oct 10 –
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 –
Brazil 11.50 ↓ Oct 11 –
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 75
China 6.56 ↑ Jul 11 125
India 8.50 ↑ Oct 11 375
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ Oct 11 –
Israel 3.00 ↓ Sep 11 –
Malaysia 3.00 ↑ May 11 100
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09 –
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Mar 11 –
Norway 2.25 ↑ May 11 100
Russia 8.25 ↑ Apr 11 50
South Africa 5.50 ↓ Nov 10 –
South Korea 3.25 ↑ Jun 11 125
Sweden 2.00 ↑ Jul 11 175
Switzerland 0.00 ↓ Aug 11 –
Taiwan 1.875 ↑ Jun 11 63
Thailand 3.50 ↑ Aug 11 225
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 –
back to top
Table 2.2: Federal Reserve Holdings of US Treasury Bonds(a)
As at 28 September 2011, par values
Residual maturity
Years		 Federal Reserve
holdings
US$ billion		 Share of total
outstanding
Per cent
(a) Excludes Treasury Inflation Protected Securities
Sources: Bloomberg; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
0 to 3 517 16
3 to 6 484 25
6 to 8 311 39
8 to 10 94 15
10 to 20 89 33
20 to 30 74 13
Total 1,569 21
back to top
Table 2.3: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Since end 2010 Since previous
Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones 2 −1
– S&P 500 −2 −2
– NASDAQ 0 −2
Euro area
– STOXX −18 −9
United Kingdom
– FTSE −7 −2
Japan
– Nikkei −16 −10
Canada
– TSE 300 −9 −4
Australia
– ASX 200 −12 −3
China
– China A −11 −6
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −12 −8
– Latin America −14 2
– Emerging Europe −13 −10
– World −9 −4
back to top
Table 2.4: Changes in the US Dollar
against Selected Currencies Per cent
  Over past year Since previous
Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
South African rand 16 19
Swiss franc −10 15
Mexican peso 10 15
Brazilian real 2 12
Indian rupee 11 11
New Zealand dollar −3 9
South Korean won 1 6
Indonesian rupiah 1 6
Singapore dollar −1 6
Malaysian ringgit 2 6
Canadian dollar 1 5
European euro 2 4
Swedish krona 0 4
New Taiwan dollar −1 4
Australian dollar −3 4
Thai baht 3 3
UK pound sterling 1 3
Japanese yen −3 1
Philippine peso 0 1
Chinese renminbi −5 −1
Majors TWI 0 4
Broad TWI 1 5
back to top
Table 2.5: Foreign Exchange Reserves US$ equivalent (billions)
  Monthly change Level
Jul–Aug 2011
average		 Sep 2011 As at end
Sep 2011
(a) RBA estimates of official reserve assets excluding gold
Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; IMF; RBA
China 33 −61 3,202
Japan 37 −12 1,123
Russia 6 −24 460
Taiwan 0 −11 389
Brazil(a) 9 −3 341
South Korea 3 −9 296
Thailand 1 −8 170
Indonesia 2 –10 115
South Africa 0 −1 40
Chile(a) 1 1 36
back to top
Table 2.6: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies Per cent
  Over
past year		 Since previous Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
South African rand 20 14
Swiss franc −7 10
Indian rupee 15 7
New Zealand dollar 1 5
South Korean won 4 2
Indonesian rupiah 4 2
Singapore dollar 2 2
Malaysian ringgit 5 2
Canadian dollar 4 1
European euro 6 0
Thai baht 7 −1
UK pound sterling 4 −1
Japanese yen 0 −3
US dollar 4 −4
Chinese renminbi −1 −5
TWI 3 −1
back to top
Table 3.1: Output and Factor Input Growth Year-average, per cent
2010/11
(a) Contribution to GDP growth
Source: ABS
Domestic final demand 3.5
− Private demand 2.8
− Public demand 2.6
Change in inventories(a) 0.7
GNE 4.2
Net exports(a) −2.0
GDP 2.1
Nominal GDP 8.3
Labour input 3.2
Capital stock 3.8
back to top
Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth Per cent
3 months to
June 2011		 3 months to
September 2011		 Year to
September 2011
(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Capital cities
ABS(a)(b) −0.5 −1.2 −2.2
APM −2.2 −0.9 −4.3
RP Data-Rismark −0.9 −1.3 −3.4
Regional areas
APM(b) 0.1 −1.1 −1.8
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.1 −1.3 −2.4
back to top
Table 3.3: Value of LNG Projects Under Construction in 2011(a) A$ billion
(a) US dollar-denominated project values converted to Australian dollars at US$1.03
Sources: RBA; publicly available information
Gorgon 43
Wheatstone 28
Gladstone 16
Pluto 15
Queensland Curtis 15
Australia Pacific 14
Prelude (Floating) 12
North Rankin B 5
Total 146
back to top
Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates Per cent
Change Since:             
Level at
end October 2011		 August
Statement		 End
October 2010
(a) Average of the major bank's discounted package rates on $250,000 full-doc loans
(b) Rates on outstanding, as opposed to new, business lending
Sources: ABS;APRA;RBA
Housing loans(a) 7.03 −0.01 0.28
Personal loans  13.07 −0.03 0.27
Small business
Residentially secured, advertised
– Term loans 8.99 0.00 0.40
– Overdraft  9.86 0.00 0.40
Average rate(b)  8.81 0.00 0.29
Large business
Average rate(b)
(variable-rate and bill funding) 		6.86 −0.17 0.07
back to top
Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates Percentage change
  Average monthly growth  
June
quarter 2011		 September
quarter 2011		 Year to
September 2011
Source: RBA
Total credit 0.1 0.3 3.4
– Owner-occupier housing 0.5 0.5 6.4
– Investor housing 0.3 0.4 4.6
– Personal −0.3 −0.3 −0.9
– Business −0.4 0.2 0.2
Broad money 0.3 1.0 8.3
back to top
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation Per cent
Quarterly   Year-ended
June
quarter 2011		 September
quarter 2011		 June
quarter 2011		 September
quarter 2011
(a)Year-ended inflation rates are based on non-seasonally adjusted data
(b) Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted by the RBA using ABS seasonal factors for individual components;
year-ended inflation rates are based on non-seasonally adjusted data
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 0.9 0.6   3.6 3.5
Seasonally adjusted CPI(a) 1.0 0.4 3.6 3.5
– Tradables (b) 1.0 0.0   3.6 3.3
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco)(b)		 0.0 −0.1   −1.0 −1.3
– Non-tradables
(excl deposit & loan facilities)(b)		 1.0 0.8   3.5 3.4
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.8 0.3   2.6 2.3
Weighted median 0.8 0.3   2.9 2.6
CPI excl volatile items(b) (c) 0.7 0.5   2.5 2.3
back to top
Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
  Year to June 2012 Year to June 2013(a)
May
2011		 August
2011		 November
2011		 August
2011		 November
2011
(a) Excluding carbon price
Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre
Market economists 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8
Union officials 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.4
back to top
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a) Per cent
(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.03, TWI at 76 and Tapis crude oil price at US$116 per barrel
(b) Based on the quarterly national accounts release rather than the recent annual release
Sources: ABS; RBA
  Year-ended
June
2011		 Dec
2011		 June
2012		 Dec
2012		 June
2013		 Dec
2013
GDP growth 1.4 2¾ 4 3–3½ 3–3½ 3–4
CPI inflation 3.6 3¼ 2 3¼  3¼ 2½–3
Underlying inflation 2½ 2½ 2½ 2¾ 2¾ 2½–3
CPI inflation
(excl carbon price)		 3.6 3¼ 2 2½ 2½ 2½–3
Underlying inflation
(excl carbon price)		 2½ 2½ 2½ 2½ 2½ 2½–3
Year-average(b)
2010/11 2011 2011/12 2012 2012/13 2013
GDP growth 1.9 1¾ 3¼ 4 3¼ 3¼
back to top
Table C1: Consumer Price Index – Base Period Expenditure Weights Per cent
Expenditure group 15th series (2005) 16th series (2011)
Source: ABS
Housing 19.5 22.3
Food & non-alcoholic beverages 15.4 16.8
Recreation & culture 11.6 12.6
Transport 13.1 11.6
Furnishings, household equipment & services 9.6 9.1
Alcohol & tobacco 6.8 7.1
Health 4.7 5.3
Insurance & financial services 9.3 5.1
Clothing & footwear 3.9 4.0
Education 2.7 3.2
Communication 3.3 3.1
Total 100.0 100.0
back to top
Table C2: Selected Underlying Inflation Measures Year to June 2011
Originally published
(15th series weights,
previous seasonal
adjustment)		 Most recently
published
(15th series weights,
latest seasonal
adjustment)		 Estimates based on
16th series weights
and latest seasonal
adjustment(a)
(a) RBA estimates
(b) Based on non-seasonally adjusted data
Sources: ABS; RBA
Trimmed mean 2.7 2.6 2.4
Weighted median 2.7 2.9 2.6
CPI excl. volatile items and
deposit & loan facilities(b)		 2.4 2.4 2.1
back to top