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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2010

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1: World GDP Growth

Table 2: Policy Rates

Table 3: Selected Sovereign Credit Default Swaps

Table 4: Changes in International Share Prices

Table 5: US Dollar against Other Currencies

Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 7: Demand and Output Growth

Table 8: National Housing Price Growth

Table 9: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates

Table 10: Financial Aggregates

Table 11: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200

Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 14: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

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Table 1: World GDP Growth Year-average, per cent(a)
  2008 2009 2010 2011
      IMF forecasts(b)
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Forecasts from the April World Economic Outlook
(c) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(d) Weighted using merchandise export shares
Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
United States 0.4 −2.4 3.1 2.6
Euro area 0.6 −4.1 1.0 1.5
Japan −1.2 −5.2 1.9 2.0
China 9.6 8.7 10.0 9.9
Other east Asia(c) 2.8 0.0 5.3 5.2
India 7.3 5.7 8.8 8.4
World 3.0 −0.6 4.2 4.3
Australia’s trading partners(d) 2.7 −0.1 4.9 4.9
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Table 2: Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent 		  Most
recent
change
Sources: central banks
Euro area 1.00 ↓ May 09
Japan 0.10 ↓ Dec 08
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08
Brazil 9.50 ↑ Apr 10
Canada 0.25 ↓ Apr 09
China 5.31 ↓ Dec 08
India 5.25 ↑ Apr 10
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ Aug 09
Israel 1.50 ↑ Mar 10
Malaysia 2.25 ↑ Mar 10
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Apr 09
Norway 2.00 ↑ May 10
Russia 8.00 ↓ Apr 10
South Africa 6.50 ↓ Mar 10
South Korea 2.00 ↓ Feb 09
Sweden 0.25 ↓ Jul 09
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar 09
Thailand 1.25 ↓ Apr 09
Turkey 6.50 ↓ Nov 09
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09
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Table 3: Selected Sovereign Credit Default Swaps April 2010
    Outstandings (US$ billion)
  S&P credit rating Gross CDS
contracts		 Net CDS
contracts		 Government
debt(a)
(a) Central government; May 2010
Sources: Bloomberg; Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation; RBA; S&P; US Treasury
Italy A+ 224 25 1,892
Spain AA 105 14 614
Greece BB+ 79 8 377
Germany AAA 71 14 1,341
Portugal A− 62 9 149
France AAA 55 10 1,517
Ireland AA 35 5 115
United States AAA 13 2 8,430
Australia AAA 7 1 124
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Table 4: Changes in International Share Prices Per cent
  2007/08 peak to
recent trough		 Since recent trough 2007/08 peak to current Since previous Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones −54 66 −23 6
– S&P 500 −57 72 −26 6
– NASDAQ −56 89 −16 10
Euro area
– STOXX −62 51 −42 −3
United Kingdom
– FTSE −48 52 −21 2
Japan
– Nikkei −61 57 −39 6
Canada
– TSE 300 −50 57 −21 4
China
– China A −72 67 −53 −5
Australia
– ASX 200 −54 49 −32 1
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −61 93 −25 3
– Latin America −57 92 −17 −3
– Emerging Europe −71 105 −41 −1
– World −56 63 −28 4
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Table 5: US Dollar against Other Currencies Percentage change
  Past year Since previous Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
European euro 4 8
Chinese renminbi 0 0
UK pound sterling 0 5
Swiss franc −1 6
Mexican peso −4 −2
Swedish krona −5 4
New Taiwan dollar −5 −1
Japanese yen −5 3
Singapore dollar −6 −1
Philippine peso −6 −3
Thai baht −8 −2
Malaysian ringgit −8 −5
Indian rupee −9 −2
South African rand −9 2
South Korean won −10 0
Indonesian rupiah −11 0
Canadian dollar −12 −3
Brazilian real −16 −2
Australian dollar −18 −3
New Zealand dollar −19 −2
Majors TWI −3 3
Broad TWI −3 1
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Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies Percentage change
  Past year Since previous
Statement		 Deviation from
post-float average
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
European euro 26 11 7
UK pound sterling 21 8 34
Chinese renminbi 21 3 32
US dollar 21 3 25
Swiss franc 20 8 −5
Japanese yen 16 6 −10
Singapore dollar 15 1 1
Thai baht 12 1 24
South African rand 11 4 54
Malaysian ringgit 11 −3 31
Indian rupee 10 0 52
South Korean won 10 2 51
Indonesian rupiah 8 3 124
Canadian dollar 7 0 0
New Zealand dollar −1 1 3
TWI 16 4 20
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Table 7: Demand and Output Growth Per cent
  December quarter
2009		 Year to December
quarter 2009
(a) Contribution to GDP growth
Source: ABS
Domestic final demand 2.0 3.3
– Private demand 1.5 2.1
– Public demand 3.8 7.7
GNE 2.1 4.5
Net exports(a) −1.3 −0.5
Statistical discrepancy(a) 0.0 −1.4
GDP 0.9 2.7
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Table 8: National Housing Price Growth Per cent
  December quarter 2009 March quarter 2010 Year to March quarter 2010 Trough-to-latest
(a) Detached houses only
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Capital cities
ABS(a) 5.1 4.8 20.0 20.0
APM 4.9 2.9 15.7 15.7
RP Data-Rismark 2.9 3.6 12.6 14.5
Regional areas
APM 4.2 1.1 11.0 11.6
RP Data-Rismark(a) 2.3 0.6 6.3 6.7
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Table 9: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates Per cent
    Change since:
  Level at
end April 2010		 End Jan 2009 End April 2009 End Aug 2008
(a) RBA estimate
Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Cash rate 4.25 0.50 1.25 −3.00
Housing loans
Prime full-doc 6.57 0.50 1.38 −2.48
Prime low-doc 7.17 0.50 1.36 −2.25
Personal loans 12.39 0.52 1.44 −0.70
Small business
Residentially secured
Term loans
 8.34 0.50 1.26 −1.76
Overdraft
 9.20 0.50 1.31 −1.71
Average actual rate(a) 8.26 0.50 1.15 −2.03
Large business
Average actual rate, variable and bill funding(a) 6.36 0.33 1.35 −2.24
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Table 10: Financial Aggregates Percentage change
  Average monthly growth Year to March 2010
  December quarter
2009		 March quarter
2010		  
Source: RBA
Total credit 0.1 0.4 2.1
– Owner-occupier housing 0.8 0.7 9.8
– Investor housing 0.5 0.7 5.7
– Personal 0.6 0.5 2.4
– Business −0.9 0.0 −6.9
Broad money −0.3 0.8 3.8
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Table 11: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200
    Per cent change since:  
  February Statement Trough (March 2009) Peak (November 2007)
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Resources −2 38 −24
Financials 4 74 −36
Other 0 33 −32
ASX 200 1 49 −32
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Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation Per cent
  Quarterly Year-ended
  December
quarter
2009		 March
quarter
2010		 December
quarter
2009		 March
quarter
2010
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 0.5 0.9 2.1 2.9
– Tradables 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.1
– Tradables (ex food & fuel) −0.3 −0.7 2.0 0.3
– Non-tradables 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.2
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.5 0.8 3.2 3.0
Weighted median 0.6 0.8 3.5 3.1
CPI ex volatile items(a) and
deposit & loan facilities 		0.5 0.7 3.4 2.9
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Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations Per cent
  Year to December 2010   Year to December 2011
  November
2009		 February
2010		 May
2010		   February
2010		 May
2010
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 2.2 2.3 3.1   2.9 3.0
Union officials(b) 2.6 3.0 3.1   3.0 3.0
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Table 14: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a) Per cent, over year to quarter shown
  Dec 2009 June 2010 Dec 2010 June 2011 Dec 2011 June 2012 Dec 2012
(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.91, TWI at 71, WTI crude oil price at US$87 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$90 per barrel.
Sources: ABS; RBA
GDP growth 2.7 2½ 3¼ 3¾ 3¾ 3¾ 4
Non-farm GDP growth 2.5 2½ 3¼ 3¾ 3¾ 3¾ 4
CPI inflation 2.1 3¼ 3¼ 3 2¾ 3 3
Underlying inflation 3¼ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾ 3 3
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