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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2010

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1: World GDP Growth

Table 2: Commodity Price Growth

Table 3: Policy Rates

Table 4: Changes in International Share Prices

Table 5: US Dollar against Other Currencies

Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 7: Demand and Output Growth

Table 8: National Housing Price Growth

Table 9: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates

Table 10: Financial Aggregates

Table 11: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200

Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 14: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

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Boxes

Table A1: Discretionary Fiscal Tightening in Europe

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Table 1: World GDP Growth Year-average, per cent(a)
  2008 2009 2010 2011
  IMF forecasts(b)
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Forecasts from the July World Economic Outlook Update
(c) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(d) Weighted using merchandise export shares
Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
United States 0.0 −2.6 3.3 2.9
Euro area 0.6 −4.1 1.0 1.3
Japan −1.2 −5.2 2.4 1.8
China 9.6 9.1 10.5 9.6
Other east Asia(c) 2.8 0.0 6.5 5.0
India 7.4 6.7 9.4 8.4
World 3.0 −0.6 4.6 4.3
Australia’s trading partners(d) 2.7 0.1 5.5 4.7
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Table 2: Commodity Price Growth SDR terms, per cent
Since end April 2010 Since end July 2009
(a) Export prices; RBA estimates for recent months
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
RBA index 11 54
– Coal and iron ore(a) 19 81
– Excluding coal and iron ore 1 28
Rural 3 16
– Wheat 22 5
– Other −2 20
Base metals −3 24
Gold 0 27
Tapis crude oil −3 20
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Table 3: Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent 		Most
recent
change 		Cumulative
increase
Basis points
Sources: central banks
Euro area 1.00 ↓ May 09 –
Japan 0.10 ↓ Dec 08 –
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 –
Brazil 10.75 ↑ Jul 10 200
Canada 0.75 ↑ Jul 10 50
China 5.31 ↓ Dec 08 –
India 5.75 ↑ Jul 10 100
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ Aug 09 –
Israel 1.75 ↑ Aug 10 125
Malaysia 2.75 ↑ Jul 10 75
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09 –
New Zealand 3.00 ↑ Jul 10 50
Norway 2.00 ↑ May 10 75
Russia 7.75 ↓ Jun 10 –
South Africa 6.50 ↓ Mar 10 –
South Korea 2.25 ↑ Jul 10 25
Sweden 0.50 ↑ Jul 10 25
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar 09 –
Taiwan 1.38 ↑ Jun 10 13
Thailand 1.50 ↑ Jul 10 25
Turkey 7.00 ↓ Nov 09 –
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 –
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Table 4: Changes in International Share Prices Per cent
  Since 08/09
trough		 April peak
to current
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones 63 −5
– S&P 500 67 −7
– NASDAQ 82 −9
Euro area
– STOXX 59 −6
United Kingdom
– FTSE 53 −8
Japan
– Nikkei 35 −16
Canada
– TSE 300 57 −4
China
– China A 54 −17
Australia
– ASX 200 44 −9
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia 101 −1
– Latin America 101 −4
– Emerging Europe 107 −7
– World 58 −7
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Table 5: US Dollar against Other Currencies Percentage change
  Past year Since previous
Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
European euro 9 0
UK pound sterling 7 −4
Swedish krona 0 −2
Swiss franc −1 −3
Chinese renminbi −1 −1
New Taiwan dollar −3 −1
Brazilian real −4 0
Indian rupee −4 3
South Korean won −4 5
Mexican peso −5 1
Canadian dollar −5 1
Philippine peso −5 1
Thai baht −5 −1
Singapore dollar −6 −2
South African rand −7 −2
Australian dollar −8 1
New Zealand dollar −8 −2
Indonesian rupiah −9 −1
Malaysian ringgit −9 −1
Japanese yen −9 −8
Majors TWI 0 −2
Broad TWI −1 −1
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Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
  Past year Since previous
Statement 		Deviation from
post-float average
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
European euro 19 0 5
UK pound sterling 17 −5 29
US dollar 9 −1 26
Swiss franc 8 −4 −9
Chinese renminbi 8 −2 33
Indian rupee 6 2 58
South Korean won 4 4 55
Canadian dollar 4 0 0
Thai baht 3 −1 24
Singapore dollar 3 −2 −1
South African rand 0 −3 49
New Zealand dollar 0 −3 1
Japanese yen −1 −9 −16
Malaysian ringgit −1 −2 30
Indonesian rupiah −1 −2 119
TWI 6 −3 19
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Table 7: Demand and Output Growth Per cent
  March
quarter 2010 		Year to March
quarter 2010
(a) Contribution to GDP growth
Source: ABS
Domestic final demand 0.6 4.4
– Private demand −0.4 2.0
– Public demand 3.8 12.9
GNE 0.8 5.7
Net exports(a) −0.5 −2.7
Statistical discrepancy(a) 0.2 −0.4
GDP 0.5 2.7
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Table 8: National Housing Price Growth Per cent
  March
quarter 2010 		June
quarter 2010 		Year to June
quarter 2010		 Trough-to-
latest
(a) Detached houses only
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Capital cities
ABS(a) 4.2 3.1 18.4 23.4
APM 3.7 2.5 15.2 19.2
RP Data-Rismark 4.5 1.4 12.2 17.3
Regional areas
APM 0.7 0.5 9.4 11.9
RP Data-Rismark(a) 1.6 0.3 5.9 8.5
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Table 9: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates Per cent
    Change since:
  Level at
end July 2010		 End
April 2010		 End
April 2009
(a) RBA estimate
Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Cash rate 4.50 0.25 1.50
Housing loans
Prime full-doc 6.82 0.25 1.63
Prime low-doc 7.48 0.31 1.68
Personal loans 12.64 0.25 1.69
Small business
Residentially secured
Term loans
 8.59 0.25 1.51
Overdraft
 9.45 0.25 1.56
Average actual rate(a) 8.52 0.25 1.42
Large business
Average actual rate,
variable and bill funding(a) 		6.80 0.57 1.79
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Table 10: Financial Aggregates Percentage change
  Average monthly growth Year to June 2010
  March quarter
2010		 June quarter
2010		  
Source: RBA
Total credit 0.4 0.3 2.8
– Owner-occupier housing 0.7 0.5 8.7
– Investor housing 0.7 0.7 7.2
– Personal 0.5 −0.2 3.1
– Business 0.0 0.1 −5.0
Broad Money 0.8 0.5 2.9
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Table 11: Sectoral Movements in the ASX 200
  Per cent change since:
  May Statement Trough (March 2009) Peak (November 2007)
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Resources 5.7 44 −21
Financials −4.3 61 −41
Other −1.7 29 −34
ASX 200 −0.7 44 −33
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Table 12: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation Per cent
  Quarterly   Year-ended
  March
quarter 2010 		June
quarter 2010 		  March
quarter 2010 		June
quarter 2010
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 0.9 0.6   2.9 3.1
– Tradables 0.2 1.0   1.1 1.4
– Tradables (excl food, fuel and tobacco) −1.0 −0.1   0.1 −1.1
– Non-tradables 1.5 0.3   4.2 4.2
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.8 0.5   3.0 2.7
Weighted median 0.8 0.5   3.1 2.7
CPI excl volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities 0.7 0.7   2.9 2.8
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Table 13: Median Inflation Expectations Per cent
  Year to December 2010   Year to December 2011
  February
2010		 May
2010		 August
2010		   February
2010		 May
2010		 August
2010
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 2.3 3.1 3.2   2.9 3.0 3.0
Union officials(b) 3.0 3.1 3.1   3.0 3.0 3.2
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Table 14: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a) Per cent, over year to quarter shown
  Dec
2009		 June
2010		 Dec
2010		 June
2011		 Dec
2011		 June
2012		 Dec
2012
(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.92, TWI at 70, WTI crude oil price at US$84 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$87 per barrel.
Sources: ABS; RBA
GDP growth 2.8 3 3¼ 3¾ 3¾ 3¾ 4
Non-farm GDP growth 2.8 3 3¼ 3½ 3¾ 3¾ 4
CPI inflation 2.1 3.1 3¼ 3¼ 2¾ 3 3
Underlying inflation 3¼ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾ 2¾ 3 3
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Table A1: Discretionary Fiscal Tightening in Europe
  Share of EU GDP(a)
Per cent
Tightening announced since late 2009(b)
Per cent of GDP
    For 2010 For 2011  
(a) Shares in 2009 at purchasing power parity exchange rates
(b) RBA estimates, to nearest ½ per cent of GDP
Sources: European Commission; Eurostat; IMF; RBA; national authorities
Germany 19 0 ½  
France 14¼ 0 ½  
Italy 11¾ ½ 1  
Spain 9¼ 2½ 2½  
Greece 2¼ 8 4  
Ireland 1¼ 2½ 2  
Portugal 1½ 2 2½  
United Kingdom 14½ ½ 1½  
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