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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2008

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1: World GDP

Table 2: Selected Bank Announcements

Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices

Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies

Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 6: Demand and Output

Table 7: National House Prices

Table 8: Terms of Trade

Table 9: Credit Aggregates

Table 10: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates

Table 11: Measures of Consumer Prices

Table 12: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 13: Output and Inflation Forecasts

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Boxes

Table C1: Funding of Business and Household Debt

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Table 1: World GDP
Year-average percentage change(a)
  2006 2007 2008 2009
    IMF forecasts (April 2008)
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Weighted using GDP at market exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares
Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters
United States 2.9 2.2 0.5 0.6
Euro area 2.9 2.6 1.4 1.2
Japan 2.4 2.1 1.4 1.5
China 11.6 11.9 9.3 9.5
Other east Asia(b) 5.5 5.7 4.6 4.9
India 9.7 9.1 7.9 8.0
Emerging Europe 6.6 5.8 4.4 4.3
Latin America 5.3 5.6 4.3 3.6
World 5.1 5.0 3.7 3.8
Australia’s trading partners(c) 5.1 5.4 4.0 4.2
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Table 2: Selected Bank Announcements
US$ billion
  Q1 2008
write-downs		 Q1 actual
and planned
capital raisings
(a) For the year 2007
Source: company reports
UBS 19.1 15.1
Citigroup 15.2 10.5
Merrill Lynch 11.8 2.6
Royal Bank of Scotland 11.8 23.9
HBOS 5.6 7.9
Credit Suisse 5.2  
Deutsche Bank 4.3  
Washington Mutual 3.5 7.0
Wachovia 2.8 7.0
JPMorgan 2.5 6.0
Lehman Brothers 2.4 4.0
Morgan Stanley 2.3  
Mizuho 2.2  
BayernLB(a) 2.1  
Goldman Sachs 2.0  
Wells Fargo 2.0  
Bank of America 1.9  
National City 1.4 7.0
Nomura 1.3  
CIT 0.3 1.0
WestLB(a)   7.8
Total 99.7 99.8
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Table 3: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
  Since 2000 peak Past year Since previous
Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones 11 −2 6
– S&P 500 −7 −6 6
– NASDAQ −51 −3 8
Euro area
– STOXX −21 −14 5
United Kingdom
– FTSE −10 −5 9
Japan
– TOPIX −22 −21 6
Canada
– TSE 300 27 4 12
Australia
– ASX 200 63 −10 2
MSCI Emerging Asia 61 20 7
MSCI Latin America 292 26 16
MSCI World −2 −6 7
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Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
  Past year Since previous
Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Thomson Reuters
Brazil −18 −6
Australia −13 −5
Switzerland −13 −4
Japan −13 −2
Euro area −12 −6
Sweden −11 −7
Philippines −11 5
Singapore −10 −4
Thailand −9 −4
China −9 −3
Canada −9 0
Malaysia −8 −2
Taiwan −8 −5
New Zealand −7 0
Mexico −3 −3
India 0 4
United Kingdom 1 −1
Indonesia 4 0
South Africa 9 −3
South Korea 10 7
Majors TWI −10 −3
Broad TWI −8 −2
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Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
  Past year Since previous
Statement		 Deviation from
post-float average
Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters
South Korea 25 13 43
South Africa 25 3 70
Indonesia 19 6 156
UK 17 6 9
US 15 6 32
New Zealand 7 6 −2
Taiwan 6 1 29
PNG 5 3 99
Canada 4 6 2
China 4 4 44
Singapore 3 2 3
Sweden 3 −1 8
Euro area 1 0 −8
Japan 1 5 4
Switzerland 0 2 −7
TWI 8 5 22
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Table 6: Demand and Output
Percentage change
  September
quarter 2007		 December
quarter 2007		 Year to December
quarter 2007
(a) Adjusted for the statistical discrepancy
(b) Contribution to GDP growth
Sources: ABS; RBA
Domestic final demand 0.7 1.6 5.7
GNE(a) 1.2 1.5 5.6
Net exports(b) −0.2 −1.0 −1.8
GDP 1.1 0.6 3.9
Non-farm GDP 0.7 0.7 4.0
Farm GDP 19.7 −2.4 1.2
Memo item:
Real GDP adjusted for
changes in the terms of trade		 0.9 0.7 4.2
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Table 7: National House Prices
Percentage change
  December quarter
2007		 March quarter
2008		 Year to March quarter
2008
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
ABS 4.1 1.1 13.8
RP Data-Rismark 2.8 1.1 11.0
APM 3.8 0.4 10.7
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Table 8: Terms of Trade
Percentage change; March Qtr 2003–Dec Qtr 2007
(a) Does not include the effect of this year’s contract re-negotiations. If this is included, the cumulative increase since March quarter 2003 is estimated to be approximately 65 per cent.
Sources: OECD; State Statistical Office (Russia)
Russia 64
Norway 44
Australia(a) 39
Canada 18
New Zealand 18
Sweden 1
Germany −1
United Kingdom −1
Italy −2
France −5
United States −5
South Korea −11
Japan −23
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Table 9: Credit Aggregates
Average monthly growth, Per cent
  June
quarter
2007		 September
quarter
2007		 December
quarter
2007		 March
quarter
2008
Source: RBA
Total credit 1.4 1.1 1.3 0.8
Household 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.7
– Owner-occupier housing 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0
– Investor housing 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6
– Personal 2.1 0.0 1.2 −0.2
Business 1.8 1.9 1.9 0.9
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Table 10: Intermediaries’ Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
  Current level Change since:
6 May 2008 End Jan 2008 End Jul 2007
(a) RBA estimate for end of April
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Cash rate 7.25 0.50 1.00
Housing loans
Prime-full doc
Banks 8.83 0.74 1.39
Credit unions and building societies 8.72 0.76 1.35
Mortgage originators 8.92 0.86 1.54
Prime low doc
Banks 9.27 0.79 1.51
Mortgage originators 9.49 0.95 1.69
Non-conforming 12.01 0.75 2.26
Personal loans
Margin loans 10.40 0.74 1.44
Standard credit cards 19.38 0.81 1.59
Low-rate credit cards 12.54 0.77 1.37
Unsecured term loans 14.65 0.76 2.03
Small business
Term loans
Residentially secured 9.89 0.81 1.59
Other security 10.48 0.81 1.59
Overdraft
Residentially secured 10.65 0.86 1.71
Other security 11.55 0.86 1.71
Average actual rate(a) 9.91 0.70 1.35
Large business
Average actual rate(a) 8.20 0.65 1.28
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Table 11: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
  Quarterly Year-ended
December
quarter
2007		 March
quarter
2008		 December
quarter
2007		 March
quarter
2008
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 0.9 1.3 3.0 4.2
– Tradables 0.3 0.8 1.4 3.3
– Tradables (ex food and petrol) 0.0 −0.2 0.8 0.6
– Non-tradables 1.3 1.7 4.1 5.0
Underlying measures
Weighted median 1.1 1.3 3.8 4.4
Trimmed mean 1.0 1.2 3.4 4.1
CPI ex volatile items(a) 1.0 1.2 3.0 3.6
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Table 12: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
  Year to June 2009 Year to June 2010
November
2007		 February
2008		 May
2008		 May
2008
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.8
Union officials(b) 3.0 3.5 4.0 3.5
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Table 13: Output and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
  Dec
2007		 Mar
2008		 June
2008		 Dec
2008		 June
2009		 Dec
2009		 Jun
2010		 Dec
2010
(a) Actual GDP data to December 2007 and actual inflation data to March 2008. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.94, TWI at 71, cash rate at 7.25 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$116 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$120 per barrel.
Sources: ABS; RBA
GDP 3.9 3 2½ 2¼ 2¾ 2½ 2½ 2¾
Non-farm GDP 4.0 3 2¼ 1¾ 2¼ 2½ 2½ 2¾
CPI 3.0 4.2 4¼ 4½ 3½ 3¼ 3 2¾
Underlying inflation 3.6 4.2 4¼ 4 3½ 3¼ 3 2¾
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Table C1: Funding of Business and Household Debt
  Outstandings ($ billion) Per cent of total outstandings
Mar 1998 Mar 2008 Mar 1998 Mar 2008
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Total debt 596 1,956 100 100
Borrowed by:
– Businesses 318 867 53 44
– Households 278 1,089 47 56
Funded by:
– Intermediaries 529 1,620 89 83
– Securitisation 19 196 3 10
– Corporate debt 49 141 8 7
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