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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2007

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1: World GDP

Table 2: Commodity Prices

Table 3: Changes in Monetary Policy

Table 4: Changes in Global Share Prices

Table 5: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies

Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 7: Demand and Output

Table 8: House Prices

Table 9: Fiscal Balance – General Government Sector

Table 10: Volume of Farm Production

Table 11: Unemployment Rates by State

Table 12: Share Market Performance

Table 13: Financial Aggregates

Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices

Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 16: RBA Inflation Forecasts

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Boxes

Table A1: Share of World Activity

Table C1: Measures of Construction Activity

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Table 1: World GDP
Year-average percentage change(a)
  2005 2006 2007 2008
    IMF forecasts (July 2007)
(a) Aggregates weighted by GDP at PPP exchange rates unless otherwise specified
(b) Weighted by GDP at market exchange rates
(c) Weighted using merchandise export shares
Sources: CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Financial
United States 3.1 2.9 2.0 2.8
Euro area 1.6 2.9 2.6 2.5
Japan 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.0
China 10.4 11.1 11.2 10.5
Other east Asia(b) 4.9 5.4 4.9 5.0
India 8.7 9.7 9.0 8.4
World 4.9 5.5 5.2 5.2
Australia’s trading partners(c) 4.3 4.9 5.1 4.8
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Table 2: Commodity Prices
Percentage change; SDR
  Three months
to July 2007		 Year to
July 07
(a) Latest available data are for June.
(b) Oil prices are not included in the RBA index.
Sources: ABS; AWB; AWEX; Bloomberg; Meat and Livestock Australia; RBA
RBA index −0.6 4.4
Rural 8.9 11.8
– Wheat 14.5 16.5
– Beef & veal 1.9 0.9
– Wool 3.2 38.1
– Sugar 11.4 −29.4
Base metals −9.5 13.8
– Aluminium −3.4 5.4
– Copper 2.8 −0.2
– Nickel −33.8 23.3
– Zinc −0.8 3.2
– Lead 53.8 181.9
Other resources 0.5 −2.0
– Coking coal(a) −1.0 −12.8
– Steaming coal(a) 7.2 4.9
– Iron ore(a) 4.7 7.1
– Gold −2.7 1.5
Memo item    
Oil in US$(b)    
– WTI 15.7 −0.5
– Tapis 6.2 2.7
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Table 3: Changes in Monetary Policy
  Current level
Per cent		 Most recent
change		 Expectations for
next 6 months
Sources: central banks; Bloomberg; Reuters
United States 5.25 ↑ Jun-06 ↓ 25 bps
Euro area 4.00 ↑ Jun-07 ↑ 25 bps
Japan 0.50 ↑ Feb-07 ↑ 25 bps
United Kingdom 5.75 ↑ Jul-07 ↑ 25 bps
Canada 4.50 ↑ Jul-07 ↑ 25 bps
New Zealand 8.25 ↑ Jul-07 No change
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Table 4: Changes in Global Share Prices
Per cent
  Since 2000 peak Over the past year Since previous
Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones 17 22 3
– S&P 500 −2 18 0
– NASDAQ −48 27 2
Euro area
– STOXX −10 22 −2
United Kingdom
– FTSE −8 10 −1
Japan
– TOPIX −5 7 −2
Canada
– TSE 300 21 15 1
Australia
– ASX 200 75 21 −2
MSCI Emerging Asia 52 44 16
MSCI Latin America 234 43 9
MSCI World 4 19 0
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Table 5: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
  Past
year		 Since previous
Statement
Source: RBA
New Zealand −19 −4
Brazil −13 −7
India −13 −2
Philippines −12 −5
Australia −11 −3
Thailand −10 −2
Euro area −7 −1
Canada −7 −6
Sweden −6 0
Malaysia −6 1
United Kingdom −6 −2
China −5 −2
Singapore −4 −1
South Korea −4 −1
Switzerland −2 −1
Taiwan 0 −1
Mexico 0 0
Indonesia 2 2
South Africa 3 0
Japan 4 0
Majors TWI −5 −3
Broad TWI −5 −2
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Table 6: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
  Past year Since previous
Statement
Source: RBA
Japan 18 5
South Africa 17 4
Indonesia 15 6
Taiwan 14 3
US 14 5
PNG 11 2
Switzerland 11 3
South Korea 10 4
Singapore 9 4
China 8 3
Canada 6 −1
Euro area 6 3
Sweden 6 4
UK 6 2
Philippines 0 −1
New Zealand −7 0
TWI 10 4
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Table 7: Demand and Output
Percentage change
  December
qtr 2006
 March
qtr 2007		 Year to March
qtr 2007
(a) Contributions to GDP growth
(b) Includes the statistical discrepancy
Sources: ABS, RBA
Domestic final demand 1.2 1.5 4.5
Change in inventories(a) 0.7 0.5 0.6
GNE(b) 2.3 1.8 5.3
Net exports(a) −1.3 −0.2 −1.6
GDP 1.1 1.6 3.8
Non-farm GDP 1.3 1.7 4.6
Farm GDP −10.4 −0.2 −22.7
Memo item:      
Real GDP adjusted for
changes in the terms of trade		 1.4 1.9 5.4
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Table 8: House Prices
Percentage change
  March qtr June qtr Year to
June qtr
Source: ABS
Sydney 0.1 2.3 3.0
Melbourne 1.7 5.0 11.5
Brisbane 4.2 6.5 15.7
Adelaide 2.2 5.7 11.7
Perth 1.3 −0.9 15.3
Canberra 1.3 2.9 9.0
Hobart 3.4 2.3 9.7
Darwin 2.5 −1.4 7.4
Australia 1.4 3.2 9.2
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Table 9: Fiscal Balance – General Government Sector(a)
Estimates, $ billion
  2006/07 2007/08
(a) ABS Government Finance Statistics basis
Sources: Australian Treasury; RBA; state Treasuries
Federal government 12.8 11.0
– Per cent of GDP 1.2 1.0
State governments −2.1 −5.7
– Per cent of GDP −0.2 −0.5
Total – federal and state 10.7 5.3
– Per cent of GDP 1.0 0.5
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Table 10: Volume of Farm Production
Per cent
  Share of gross production Growth(a)
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
(a) Estimate for 2006/07, forecast for 2007/08
(b) Gross farm production less farm inputs
Sources: ABARE; ABS; RBA
Crops 44 −31 40
– Cereals 17 −60 130
– Non-cereal crops 27 −13 15
Livestock products 46 −3 0
Farm GDP(b)   −21 20
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Table 11: Unemployment Rates by State
Per cent
  Three months ended
July 2006 July 2007
Source: ABS
NSW 5.1 4.8
Victoria 5.1 4.6
Queensland 4.5 3.5
WA 3.2 3.4
SA 4.8 4.8
Tasmania 6.4 4.8
Australia 4.8 4.3
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Table 12: Share Market Performance
Per cent
  Dec 2002–Dec 2006
Average annual change		 Financial year
2006/07		 Calendar year
to date
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA; Thomson Financial
ASX 200 17.2 23.7 7.6
S&P 500 12.7 18.4 5.6
MSCI ex US 16.8 20.3 4.2
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Table 13: Financial Aggregates
Average monthly growth, percentage change
  September
quarter
2006		 December
quarter
2006		 March
quarter
2007		 June
quarter
2007
Source: RBA
Total credit 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.4
Household 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.3
– Housing 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.2
Owner-occupier housing 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.2
Investor housing 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.3
– Personal 1.2 0.7 0.9 2.0
Business 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.7
Broad money 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.3
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Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
  Quarterly Year-ended
March
quarter
2007		 June
quarter
2007		 March
quarter
2007		 June
quarter
2007
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 0.1 1.2 2.4 2.1
– Tradables −1.0 2.0 1.0 0.3
– Tradables (ex food and petrol) 0.0 0.8 0.4 1.0
– Non-tradables 0.9 0.7 3.5 3.4
Underlying measures        
Weighted median 0.6 0.9 2.8 2.8
Trimmed mean 0.5 0.9 2.7 2.7
CPI ex volatile items(a) 0.6 0.7 2.5 2.6
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Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
  Year to June 2008 Year to June 2009
February
2007		 May
2007		 August
2007		 August
2007
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.7
Union officials(b) 3.5 3.0 3.0 3.0
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Table 16: RBA Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
  June
2006		 Dec
2006		 June
2007		 Dec
2007		 June
2008		 Dec
2008		 June
2009
(a) Actual data to June 2007. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.86, TWI at 69, cash rate at 6.5 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$73 per barrel and Tapis crude oil price at US$75 per barrel.
Sources: ABS; RBA
Consumer price index 4.0 3.3 2.1 2½ 3 2½–3 2½–3
Underlying inflation 2.9 3.0 2.8 3 3 2½–3 2½–3
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Table A1: Share of World Activity
Selected economies, 2006, Per cent
  GDP Australia’s exports(a)
PPP exchange rates Market exchange rates  
(a) Merchandise exports, valued at market exchange rates
Sources: ABS; IMF; RBA
United States 20 28 6
Euro area 15 23 7
Japan 6 9 19
China 15 5 14
Other east Asia 7 5 24
India 6 2 6
Australia 1 2 na
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Table C1: Measures of Construction Activity1
Chain volumes, percentage change
  Value added(a) Expenditure Employment
  Non-residential Residential  
(a) Gross value added at basic prices
(b) Estimate
Source: ABS
2003/04 6.6 5.6 4.6 8.0
2004/05 4.8 10.2 −1.5 7.7
2005/06 8.3 16.9 −4.0 4.8
2006/07(b) 7.5 8.6 3.8 6.9
Average 6.8 10.3 0.6 6.8
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Footnote
  1. Construction industry data are on a value-added basis. Data for residential and non-residential construction refer to expenditure as value-added data are not available.