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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2006

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1: Changes in Monetary Policy

Table 2: Changes in Major Country Share Prices

Table 3: US Dollar against Other Currencies

Table 4: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 5: Demand and Output

Table 6: House Prices

Table 7: Labour Market by State

Table 8: Industry Contributions to Labour Productivity

Table 9: Volume of Farm Production

Table 10: Commodity Prices

Table 11: Interest Rates

Table 12: Financial Aggregates

Table 13: Non-government Bond Issuance by Sector

Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices

Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations

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Boxes

Table A1: Australia’s Exports of Goods and Services by Destination

Table A2: Australia’s Imports of Goods and Services by Origin

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Table 1: Changes in Monetary Policy
  Current level
Per cent		 Most recent
change		 Expectations for
next 6 months
Sources: central banks; Bloomberg; Reuters
United States 5.25 ↑ Jun 06 No change
Euro area 3.25 ↑ Oct 06 ↑ 50 bps
Japan 0.25 ↑ Jul 06 ↑ 25 bps
United Kingdom 4.75 ↑ Aug 06 ↑ 50 bps
Canada 4.25 ↑ May 06 No change
New Zealand 7.25 ↑ Dec 05 ↑ 25 bps
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Table 2: Changes in Major Country Share Prices
Per cent
  Since 2000 peak 2006 to date Since previous Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones 4 14 8
– S&P 500 −9 11 8
– NASDAQ −53 8 14
Euro area
– STOXX −17 17 12
United Kingdom
– FTSE −10 11 7
Japan
– TOPIX −9 −3 2
Canada
– TSE 300 9 10 4
Australia
– ASX 200 62 15 9
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Table 3: US Dollar against Other Currencies
Percentage change
  2006 to
date		 Since previous
Statement
Source: RBA
Thailand −11 −3
United Kingdom −10 0
Sweden −10 0
Brazil −8 −2
Indonesia −7 0
Euro area −7 1
South Korea −7 −3
Philippines −6 −3
Singapore −6 −1
Switzerland −5 2
Australia −5 −1
Malaysia −4 −1
Canada −3 0
China −3 −1
India −1 −4
Japan 0 3
Taiwan 0 0
Mexico 2 0
New Zealand 3 −6
South Africa 16 7
Majors TWI −5 1
Broad TWI −4 0
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Table 4: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
  2006 to date Since previous
Statement
Source: RBA
South Africa 21 2
New Zealand 8 −1
Japan 6 1
Taiwan 5 1
US 5 1
PNG 2 1
China 2 0
Canada 2 3
Switzerland 0 2
Philippines −1 −1
Singapore −1 0
Euro area −2 1
South Korea −3 −2
Indonesia −3 1
Sweden −5 −1
UK −5 1
TWI 2 0
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Table 5: Demand and Output
Percentage change
  March qtr 2006 June qtr 2006 Year to June qtr 2006
(a) Contributions to GDP growth
(b) Includes the statistical discrepancy
Source: ABS
Domestic final demand 0.4 1.2 3.8
Change in inventories(a) 0 −0.8 −0.8
GNE(b) 0.8 0.5 3.1
Net exports(a) −0.1 −0.2 −1.2
GDP 0.7 0.3 1.9
Memo item:      
Real GDP adjusted for changes
in the terms of trade		 0.6 0.7 3.3
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Table 6: House Prices
Percentage change
  APM REIA Residex ABS
Sep qtr 2006 Year to Sep qtr Sep qtr 2006(a) Year to Sep qtr Sep qtr 2006 Year to Sep qtr Year to Jun qtr
(a) Seasonally adjusted by the RBA
(b) Excludes Hobart
Sources: ABS; APM; REIA; state REIs; RBA; Residex
Sydney −0.9 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.4 −0.5
Melbourne −0.1 3 3 6.3 −0.4 5.1 5.5
Brisbane 0.2 6 .. .. 0 5.5 4.5
Adelaide −0.3 6.3 0.8 3.6 0.3 2.3 7.3
Perth 4.9 38.5 .. .. −2.2 24.1 35.4
Canberra −1.4 2.8 1.8 7.2 0.7 8.7 6.7
Hobart 0.8 5 2.5 8.8 .. .. 7.4
Darwin 4.7 18.2 .. .. 0.5 5.3 18.7
Australia 0.4 6.8 .. .. −0.2(b) 7.0(b) 6.4
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Table 7: Labour Market by State
Per cent
  Employment growth Unemployment rate
Three-month-ended
October 2006		 Year-ended
October 2006		 October
2005		 October
2006
Source: ABS
NSW 0.3 1.9 5.4 5.1
Victoria 0.9 2.2 5.4 4.8
Queensland 1.6 3.8 5.0 4.0
WA 0.3 1.4 4.0 3.7
SA 1.2 3.2 5.1 4.6
Tasmania −1.4 0.9 7.4 6.5
Australia 0.7 2.5 5.2 4.6
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Table 8: Industry Contributions to Labour Productivity
Two years to 2005/06
  Annual
productivity
growth
Per cent		 Annual growth
in employment
(hours worked)
Per cent		 Implied employment
effect on productivity(a)
Percentage
contribution
(a) Over whole period
Sources: ABS; RBA
Agriculture 5.9 −4.2 0.1
Mining −11.7 14.6 0.9
Manufacturing 0.0 −0.7 0.0
Electricity, gas & water −5.1 6.8 0.1
Construction 1.4 5.1 −0.1
Wholesale trade 4.4 −1.2 −0.1
Retail trade 1.0 1.6 0.1
Accommodation & restaurants 3.2 0.6 0.1
Transport & storage 1.9 1.8 0.0
Communication 1.8 3.1 0.0
Finance & insurance 0.0 3.8 0.1
Property & business services −0.8 3.3 0.0
Cultural & recreational −2.0 6.5 −0.1
Government & other −0.6 −5.6 −0.1
Total     1.1
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Table 9: Volume of Farm Production
Per cent
  Share of gross production Growth
2005/06 2002/03 2006/07(f)
(a) Includes services to agriculture
(b) Gross farm production less farm inputs
Sources: ABARE; ABS; RBA
Crops 45 −29 −31
Cereals 18 −55 −60
Non-cereal crops 27 −12 −13
Livestock products 45 −8 −3
Meat and livestock 32 −8 −2
Wool 5 −6 −7
Dairy 8 −7 −3
Gross production(a)   −19 −16
Farm GDP(b)   −26 −20
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Table 10: Commodity Prices
Percentage change; SDR
  Three months to
October 2006		 Year to
October 2006
(a) Latest available data are for September.
(b) Oil prices are not included in the RBA Index.
Sources: ABS; AWB; AWEX; Bloomberg; Meat and Livestock Australia; RB
RBA Index 0.9 14.9
Rural −0.7 7.4
– Wheat 4.7 19.3
– Beef & veal 6.8 8.1
– Wool 1.4 10.0
– Sugar −27.2 −6.4
Base metals 10.4 82.2
– Aluminium 6.0 34.8
– Copper −2.7 81.3
– Nickel 24.6 156.9
Other resources −2.4 0.1
– Coking coal(a) −7.2 −10.9
– Steaming coal(a) 0.3 −7.1
– Iron ore(a) 3.5 19.5
– Gold −7.1 22.5
Memo item    
Oil in US$(b) −20.9 −5.6
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Table 11: Interest Rates
Per cent, November
  Cash rate Actual rate on
new housing loans(a)		 Actual
business rate(a)
(a) Assumes full pass-through of August and November tightenings
Sources: APRA; RBA
Levels 6.25 7.5 7.85
Deviation from decade average 1.00 0.8 −0.10
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Table 12: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
  Average monthly growth Year to September
First half of year September quarter  
Source: RBA
Total credit 1.2 1.0 14.4
Household 1.1 1.0 13.6
– Housing 1.2 1.1 14.2
– Personal 0.8 0.7 9.5
Business 1.2 1.0 15.9
Broad money 1.0 1.1 11.2
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Table 13: Non-government Bond Issuance by Sector
$ billion
Sector 2003 2004 2005 2006
June half September
quarter
Source: RBA
Bond issues by Australian entities
Onshore
Financial institutions 9.9 14.5 20.9 9.8 5.7
Non-financial corporations 5.6 8.0 8.9 4.3 3.2
Asset-backed 20.7 25.0 32.2 22.7 9.5
Total 36.1 47.5 62.1 36.8 18.4
Offshore
Financial institutions 51.5 64.9 52.3 37.6 20.2
Non-financial corporations 14.7 13.6 16.4 2.4 5.4
Asset-backed 24.3 29.8 25.6 11.5 8.6
Total 90.5 108.2 94.3 51.4 34.2
Total 126.6 155.7 156.4 88.2 52.6
A$ bond issues by non-resident entities
Onshore 7.1 21.3 26.5 20.6 6.1
Offshore 24.8 21.6 14.1 7.6 2.1
Total 31.9 42.9 40.6 28.2 8.2
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Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
  Quarterly Year-ended
June
quarter
2006		 September
quarter
2006		 June
quarter
2006		 September
quarter
2006
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 1.6 0.9 4.0 3.9
– Tradables 2.7 0.8 4.8 4.4
– Tradables (ex food and petrol) 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4
Non-tradables 0.8 1.0 3.4 3.6
Underlying measures
Weighted median 0.9 0.8 3.0 3.2
Trimmed mean 0.9 0.7 2.8 2.9
CPI ex volatile items(a) 0.6 0.8 2.4 2.6
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Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
  Year to June 2007 Year to June 2008
May
2006		 August
2006		 November
2006		 August
2006		 November
2006
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5
Union officials(b) 3.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.5
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Table A1: Australia’s Exports of Goods and Services by Destination
  Share of total exports
2005, per cent		 Average annual growth
2000–2005, per cent		 Rank in 2000
Source: ABS
Japan 17.9 4.4 1
China 10.6 22.5 7
United States 7.8 −3.9 2
Korea 6.9 4.5 3
New Zealand 6.7 6.1 4
United Kingdom 5.2 4.5 6
India 4.5 28.8 13
Singapore 3.6 −3.9 5
Taiwan 3.4 −0.2 8
Thailand 2.6 13.8 12
– North America 9.6 −2.3  
– European Union 12.9 3.5  
– Asia 62.0 5.9  
Total   4.2  
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Table A2: Australia’s Imports of Goods and Services by Origin
  Share of total imports
2005, per cent		 Average annual growth
2000–2005, per cent		 Rank in 2000
Source: ABS
United States 14.4 −1.4 1
China 11.6 18.1 4
Japan 9.8 2.0 2
Singapore 5.9 14.7 7
United Kingdom 5.3 −1.0 3
Germany 5.1 7.6 5
New Zealand 3.8 3.8 6
Malaysia 3.5 6.1 8
Thailand 3.0 10.8 13
France 2.9 15.8 14
– North America 16.1 −1.0  
– European Union 23.3 6.6  
– Asia 48.7 7.8  
Total   5.4  
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