Search: RMSEs
RBA Glossary definition for RMSEs
RMSEs – Root Mean Squared Errors
Search Results
Estimation Results
8 Mar 2017
RDP
2017-01
Errors in predicting actual conditions in years 1996 to 2015. RMSEs for predictions of conditions in:. ... Compared with the size of the RMSEs themselves, such differences seem relatively unimportant.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2017/2017-01/estimation-results.html
Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach
1 Feb 2017
RDP
2017-01
Errors in predicting actual conditions in years 1996 to 2015. RMSEs for predictions of conditions in:. ... Compared with the size of the RMSEs themselves, such differences seem relatively unimportant.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2017/2017-01/full.html
Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach
28 Feb 2017
RDP
2017-01
The benchmarks used for these historical comparisons are the average root mean squared forecast errors (RMSEs) made by various private and government forecasters over the past twenty years. ... Finally, fan charts – constructed as plus-or-minus one
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2017/2017-01.html
Appendix A
8 Mar 2017
RDP
2017-01
α. 0. = 0. To test the likelihood that the observed fraction of errors falling within plus-or-minus one RMSE at a given horizon is insignificantly different from 68 percent, we ... number of errors within a 20-year sample period that fall within the
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2017/2017-01/appendix-a.html
Fan Charts
8 Mar 2017
RDP
2017-01
In addition, we would expect roughly 16 percent of outcomes to lie above the RMSE bands, and roughly the same percentage to lie below. ... GDP growth across all forecast horizons have fallen within plus-or-minus the appropriate RMSE.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2017/2017-01/fan-charts.html
Introduction
8 Mar 2017
RDP
2017-01
Specifically, the SEP reports the root mean squared errors (RMSEs) of real-time forecasts over the past 20 years made by a group of leading private and public sector forecasters. ... forecasts plus or minus historical RMSEs at different horizons cover
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2017/2017-01/introduction.html
Data Sources
8 Mar 2017
RDP
2017-01
In addition, current and next-year forecasts of the unemployment rate and the T-bill rate are excluded from the calculation of average RMSEs when reported on an annual-average basis, ... However, differences in recording basis are ignored in the
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2017/2017-01/data-sources.html
Methods for Gauging Uncertainty
8 Mar 2017
RDP
2017-01
For example, the width of 70 percent confidence intervals derived from stochastic simulations of the FRB/US model is similar in magnitude to that implied by the historical RMSEs reported in
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2017/2017-01/methods-for-gauging-uncertainty.html