RDP 2011-04: Assessing Some Models of the Impact of Financial Stress Upon Business Cycles Equation

Pr ( R t = 1 | R t 1 = 0 , R t 2 = 0 , s ˜ t ) = 1 ( 1 E ( t 1 | s ˜ t ) ) = E { 1 ( Δ y t < 0 , Δ 2 y t + 1 <0 ) | s ˜ t } = E { 1 ( Δ y t < 0 ) 1 ( Δ 2 y t + 1 < 0 ) | s ˜ t } , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaagCart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLnhiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=xfr=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@8D29@