RDP 9803: Forward-Looking Behaviour and Credibility: Some Evidence and Implications for Policy
Equation (B1.4)
Δ
r
t
w
i
t
=
α
4
+
7.25
(
1.72
)
d
u
m
t
−
0.32
(
0.08
)
r
t
w
i
t
−
1
+
0.33
(
0.12
)
t
o
t
t
−
1
+
(
0.32
)
0.36
d
u
m
t
−
1
(
r
t
−
1
−
r
t
−
1
*
)
+
0
.63
(
0.21
)
(
1
−
d
u
m
t
−
1
)
(
r
t
−
1
−
r
t
−
1
*
)
+
1.3
(
0.19
)
2
Δ
t
o
t
t
−
0.14
Δ
r
t
w
i
t
−
2
−
0.09
Δ
r
t
w
i
t
−
3
[
0.15
]
−
0.17
Δ
r
t
w
i
t
−
4
MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGceiqabeaa8gqaaG Gaciab=r5aejaadkhacaWG0bGaam4DaiaadMgadaWgaaWcbaGaamiD aaqabaGccqGH9aqpcqaHXoqydaWgaaWcbaGaaGinaaqabaGccqGHRa WkdaWfqaqaaiaaiEdacaGGUaGaaGOmaiaaiwdaaSqaamaabmaabaGa aGymaiaac6cacaaI3aGaaGOmaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaGccaWGKb GaamyDaiaad2gadaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaaqabaGcdaWfqaqaaiabgkHi TiaaicdacaGGUaGaaG4maiaaikdaaSqaamaabmaabaGaaGimaiaac6 cacaaIWaGaaGioaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaGccaWGYbGaamiDaiaa dEhacaWGPbWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshacqGHsislcaaIXaaabeaakmaaxa babaGaey4kaSIaaGimaiaac6cacaaIZaGaaG4maaWcbaWaaeWaaeaa caaIWaGaaiOlaiaaigdacaaIYaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabeaakiaads hacaWGVbGaamiDamaaBaaaleaacaWG0bGaeyOeI0IaaGymaaqabaGc daWfqaqaaiabgUcaRaWcbaWaaeWaaeaacaaIWaGaaiOlaiaaiodaca aIYaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabeaakiaaicdacaGGUaGaaG4maiaaiAda caWGKbGaamyDaiaad2gadaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaaigdaae qaaOWaaeWaaeaacaWGYbWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshacqGHsislcaaIXaaa beaakiabgkHiTiaadkhadaqhaaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaaigdaae aacaGGQaaaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaGaey4kaScabaWaaCbeaeaacaWG WaGaaiOlaiaaiAdacaaIZaaaleaadaqadaqaaiaaicdacaGGUaGaaG OmaiaaigdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeqaaOWaaeWaaeaacaaIXaGaeyOe I0IaamizaiaadwhacaWGTbWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshacqGHsislcaaIXa aabeaaaOGaayjkaiaawMcaamaabmaabaGaamOCamaaBaaaleaacaWG 0bGaeyOeI0IaaGymaaqabaGccqGHsislcaWGYbWaa0baaSqaaiaads hacqGHsislcaaIXaaabaGaaiOkaaaaaOGaayjkaiaawMcaamaaxaba baGaey4kaSIaaGymaiaac6cacaaIZaaaleaadaqadaqaaiaaicdaca GGUaGaaGymaiaaiMdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeqaaOGaaGOmaiab=r5a ejaadshacaWGVbGaamiDamaaBaaaleaacaWG0baabeaakiabgkHiTm aaxababaGaaGimaiaac6cacaaIXaGaaGinaiab=r5aejaadkhacaWG 0bGaam4DaiaadMgadaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaaikdaaeqaaO GaeyOeI0IaaGimaiaac6cacaaIWaGaaGyoaiab=r5aejaadkhacaWG 0bGaam4DaiaadMgadaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaaiodaaeqaaa qaamaadmaabaGaaGimaiaac6cacaaIXaGaaGynaaGaay5waiaaw2fa aaqabaGccqGHsislcaaIWaGaaiOlaiaaigdacaaI3aGae8hLdqKaam OCaiaadshacaWG3bGaamyAamaaBaaaleaacaWG0bGaeyOeI0IaaGin aaqabaaaaaa@D661@