RDP 9803: Forward-Looking Behaviour and Credibility: Some Evidence and Implications for Policy Equation (B1.1)

Δ y t = α 1 − 0.23 ( 0.05 ) y t−1 + 0.27 ( 0.06 ) y t−1 * + 0.06 ( 0.05 ) to t t−1 − 0.05 ( 0.05 ) rtw i t−1 + 0.01Δ [ 0.08 ] f y t−1 + 0.02 ( 0.18 ) Δf y t−2 +0.95Δ y t ∗ −0.03 r t−2 −0.05 r t−3 + 0.10 [ 0.00 ] r t−4 −0.16 r t−5 −0.06 r t−6 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGceiqabeaa8gqaaG Gaciab=r5aejaadMhadaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaaqabaGccqGH9aqpcqaH XoqydaWgaaWcbaGaaGymaaqabaGccqGHsisldaWfqaqaaiaaicdaca GGUaGaaGOmaiaaiodaaSqaamaabmaabaGaaGimaiaac6cacaaIWaGa aGynaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqabaGccaWG5bWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshacq GHsislcaaIXaaabeaakiabgUcaRmaaxababaGaaGimaiaac6cacaaI YaGaaG4naaWcbaWaaeWaaeaacaaIWaGaaiOlaiaaicdacaaI2aaaca GLOaGaayzkaaaabeaakiaadMhadaqhaaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaa igdaaeaacaGGQaaaaOGaey4kaSYaaCbeaeaacaaIWaGaaiOlaiaaic dacaaI2aaaleaadaqadaqaaiaaicdacaGGUaGaaGimaiaaiwdaaiaa wIcacaGLPaaaaeqaaOGaamiDaiaad+gacaWG0bWaaSbaaSqaaiaads hacqGHsislcaaIXaaabeaakiabgkHiTmaaxababaGaaGimaiaac6ca caaIWaGaaGynaaWcbaWaaeWaaeaacaaIWaGaaiOlaiaaicdacaaI1a aacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabeaakiaadkhacaWG0bGaam4DaiaadMgadaWg aaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaaigdaaeqaaOGaey4kaSYaaCbeaeaaca aIWaGaaiOlaiaaicdacaGIXaGae8hLdqealeaadaWadaqaaiaaicda caGGUaGaaGimaiaaiIdaaiaawUfacaGLDbaaaeqaaOGaamOzaiaadM hadaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaaigdaaeqaaOGaey4kaSYaaCbe aeaacaaIWaGaaiOlaiaaicdacaaIYaaaleaadaqadaqaaiaaicdaca GGUaGaaGymaiaaiIdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeqaaOGae8hLdqKaamOz aiaadMhadaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaaikdaaeqaaOGaey4kaS IaaGimaiaac6cacaaI5aGaaGynaiab=r5aejaadMhadaqhaaWcbaGa amiDaaqaaiabgEHiQaaaaOqaaiabgkHiTiaaicdacaGGUaGaaGimai aaiodacaWGYbWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshacqGHsislcaaIYaaabeaakiab gkHiTiaaicdacaGGUaGaaGimaiaaiwdacaWGYbWaaSbaaSqaaiaads hacqGHsislcaaIZaaabeaakiabgUcaRmaaxababaGaaGimaiaac6ca caaIXaGaaGimaaWcbaWaamWaaeaacaaIWaGaaiOlaiaaicdacaaIWa aacaGLBbGaayzxaaaabeaakiaadkhadaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHi TiaaisdaaeqaaOGaeyOeI0IaaGimaiaac6cacaaIXaGaaGOnaiaadk hadaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaaiwdaaeqaaOGaeyOeI0IaaGim aiaac6cacaaIWaGaaGOnaiaadkhadaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTi aaiAdaaeqaaaaaaa@C5C4@