RBA Annual Conference – 2009 Relative Price Shocks, Inflation Expectations, and the Role of Monetary Policy

Table 3: The Determinants of Inflation Forecast Differentials
Coefficient (standard error)
Variable Mean: Full
1990–2008
Mean:
2001–2008
Mean:
1999–2008
MIN: Full MAX: Full
Dependent variable: Mean fdit at = α0 + α1f1,t–1 + et|t–1 f1,t–1
Brent −0.05 (0.07) −0.37 (0.10)* −0.12 (0.07)*   −0.16 (0.13)   0.02 (0.10)
Non-fuel 0.21 (0.22) 0.20 (0.27) −0.28 (0.26)   −0.06 (0.43)   0.23 (0.10)
Housing 0.01 (0.01) 0.01 (0.005) 0.01 (0.004)*   0.01 (0.01)   0.005 (0.008)
Equities −0.001 (0.001) −0.001 (0.001) −0.001 (0.0008)*   −0.001 (0.002)   −0.0004 (0.001)
Δ fdit–1*H −0.30 (0.06)* −0.06 (0.09) 0.03 (0.08)   0.11 (0.11)   −0.31 (0.09)*
Δ fdit–1*(1 – H) −0.05 (0.05) −0.05 (0.10) −0.01 (0.08)   −0.05 (0.10)   0.02 (0.07)
KURT −0.01 (0.01) −0.01 (0.008)* −0.01 (0.007)*   −0.20 (0.02)*   −0.006 (0.01)
DIS −0.02 (0.01)* −0.12 (0.04)* −0.07 (0.02)*   −0.05 (0.02)*   −0.02 (0.01)*
ITDUR 0.003 (0.001)* 0.007 (0.002) 0.007 (0.002)*   0.01 (0.002)*   0.004 (0.002)*
IT −0.07 (0.05) na na   −0.17 (0.10)*   −0.17 (0.08)*
fdit–1 0.82 (0.03)* 0.60 (0.07)* 0.66 (0.05)*   0.59 (0.03)*   0.75 (0.03)*
Inflation – news     −0.01 (0.01)        
Interest rate – news     0.004 (0.004)        
Recession – news     0.02 (0.003)        
US dollar – news     −0.04 (0.02)        
Constant −0.05 (0.05) −0.02 (0.13) −0.14 (0.10)*   −0.13 (0.10)   0.10 (0.10)*
at+1f1|t 0.91 0.95 0.95   0.80   0.87
Notes: Variables are defined in the text. Cross-section fixed effects are not shown. * indicates statistical significance at least at the 10 per cent level. OLS estimation is used. Standard errors are shown in parentheses. H is the Heaviside indicator used to discriminate between positive (H) and negative (1–H) changes in fd.