RBA Annual Conference – 2006 Asymmetric Demography and Macroeconomic Interactions Across National Borders
| UN medium projection | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950–1955 | 1955–1960 | 1960–1965 | 1965–1970 | 1970–1975 | 1975–1980 | 1980–1985 | 1985–1990 | 1990–1995 | 1995–2000 | 2000–2005 | 2005–2010 | 2010–2015 | 2015–2020 | 2020–2025 | 2025–2030 | 2030–2035 | 2035–2040 | 2040–2045 | 2045–2050 | |
| Source: UN Population Division (2005) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Canada | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| France | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Germany | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Italy | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Japan | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| UK | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| US | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Argentina | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Australia | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Brazil | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| China | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.4 |
| India | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Indonesia | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Mexico | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Russia | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| South Africa | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| South Korea | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Turkey | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Guatemala | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1 .2 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Laos | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Mali | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Tanzania | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Yemen | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 |