Conference – 2005 Business Cycle Dynamics in OECD Countries: Evidence, Causes and Policy Implications

Table 6: The Concordance of Growth Cycles Across Selected OECD Countries
1970–2004
Australia Belgium Canada Germany Spain France UK Italy Japan Netherlands Sweden US Euro area
Australia 1 0.53 0.65** 0.54 0.46 0.55 0.51 0.65** 0.57 0.54 0.61* 0.61** 0.57
Belgium   1 0.68*** 0.71*** 0.71*** 0.75*** 0.59* 0.82*** 0.63** 0.73*** 0.75*** 0.65** 0.80***
Canada   1 0.69*** 0.58 0.66*** 0.64** 0.64** 0.62** 0.65** 0.69*** 0.80*** 0.66***
Germany   1 0.56 0.69*** 0.71*** 0.74*** 0.75*** 0.74*** 0.69*** 0.61** 0.85***
Spain   1 0.66*** 0.54 0.59* 0.53 0.69*** 0.61* 0.64** 0.63**
France   1 0.67*** 0.73*** 0.59 0.65** 0.70*** 0.67*** 0.74***
UK   1 0.59* 0.58* 0.52 0.64** 0.61** 0.61**
Italy   1 0.66** 0.72*** 0.70*** 0.57 0.88***
Japan   1 0.66** 0.58 0.61** 0.67**
Netherlands   1 0.66*** 0.58 0.76***
Sweden   1 0.64** 0.69***
US   1 0.59*
Euro area   1

Notes: ***, ** and * denote concordance statistic significance at the 1, 5 and 10 per cent levels, respectively. Gap based on trend GDP as calculated with BP filter (6,32), K=12.

Sources: OECD Economic Outlook No 77 database; authors' calculations