Conference – 2005 Business Cycle Dynamics in OECD Countries: Evidence, Causes and Policy Implications

Table 2: Summary Statistics Concerning Classical Cycles in Selected OECD Countries
Real GDP – 1970–2003
Average of contraction phases (peak to trough) Average of expansion phases (trough to peak)
Number of contractions Duration (quarters) Proportion
of time in
contraction
(%)
Amplitude
(% points)
Quarterly amplitude
(% points)
Number of expansions Duration (quarters) Proportion
of time in
expansion
(%)
Amplitude
(% points)
Quarterly
amplitude
(% points)
Australia(a) 6 2.8 13.2 −2.00 −0.71   6 18.7 86.8 20.41 1.09
Belgium 7 2.9 18.3 −1.64 −0.58   6 14.8 81.7 11.94 0.81
Canada(a) 3 4.0 12.6 −3.21 −0.80   3 27.7 87.4 29.01 1.05
France 4 2.8 9.6 −1.16 −0.42   3 34.7 90.4 23.69 0.68
Germany 7 3.6 21.4 −1.62 −0.45   6 15.3 78.6 12.55 0.82
Italy 8 3.1 22.5 −1.36 −0.44   7 12.3 77.5 10.39 0.85
Japan 4 3.3 11.5 −2.51 −0.77   3 33.3 88.5 38.55 1.16
Netherlands 4 4.0 13.9 −2.09 −0.52   3 33.0 86.1 16.28 0.49
Spain(a) 4 3.0 10.3 −1.12 −0.37   4 26.0 89.7 16.87 0.65
Sweden(a) 4 4.5 13.6 −3.96 −0.88   4 28.5 86.4 18.32 0.64
UK(a) 4 4.8 15.6 −3.69 −0.78   4 25.8 84.4 17.17 0.67
US 5 3.4 15.3 −1.88 −0.55   4 23.5 84.7 26.38 1.12
Average 5 3.5 14.8 −2.19 −0.61   4 24.5 85.2 20.13 0.84

(a) Data thus far – the expansion continued beyond 2003.

Sources: OECD Economic Outlook No 77 database; authors' calculations