Conference – 2005 International Business Cycle Co-movements through Time

Appendix A: Chronology of Classical Cycles
1970–2003
US
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1973:Q4–1975:Q1 5 −3.10 −0.62   1975:Q1–1980:Q1 20 23.21 1.16
1980:Q1–1980:Q3 2 −2.18 −1.09   1980:Q3–1981:Q3 4 4.35 1.09
1981:Q3–1982:Q3 4 −2.71 −0.68   1982:Q3–1990:Q2 31 37.51 1.21
1990:Q2–1991:Q1 3 −1.26 −0.42   1991:Q1–2000:Q4 39 40.43 1.04
2000:Q4–2001:Q3 3 −0.17 −0.06  
Japan
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1973:Q4–1974:Q1 1 −3.46 −3.46   1974:Q1–1993:Q1 76 101.37 1.33
1993:Q1–1993:Q4 3 −1.67 −0.56   1993:Q4–1997:Q1 13 9.83 0.76
1997:Q1–1998:Q2 5 −2.20 −0.44   1998:Q2–2001:Q1 11 4.43 0.40
2001:Q1–2002:Q1 4 −2.70 −0.68  
Germany
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1974:Q1–1975:Q1 4 −3.30 −0.83   1975:Q1–1980:Q1 20 20.91 1.05
1980:Q1–1980:Q4 3 −1.81 −0.60   1980:Q4–1981:Q3 3 1.36 0.45
1981:Q3–1982:Q3 4 −1.85 −0.46   1982:Q3–1992:Q1 38 36.36 0.96
1992:Q1–1993:Q2 5 −2.66 −0.53   1993:Q2–1995:Q2 8 5.01 0.63
1995:Q2–1996:Q1 3 −0.76 −0.25   1996:Q1–2001:Q1 20 11.16 0.56
2001:Q1–2001:Q4 3 −0.37 −0.12   2001:Q4–2002:Q3 3 0.52 0.17
2002:Q3–2003:Q2 3 −0.60 −0.20  
France
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1974:Q3–1975:Q1 2 −1.95 −0.98   1975:Q1–1980:Q1 20 17.76 0.89
1980:Q1–1980:Q3 2 −0.77 −0.38   1980:Q3–1992:Q1 46 29.95 0.65
1992:Q1–1993:Q1 4 −1.32 −0.33   1993:Q1–2002:Q3 38 23.35 0.61
2002:Q3–2003:Q2 3 −0.59 −0.20  
Italy
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1974:Q3–1975:Q2 3 −3.84 −1.28   1975:Q2–1977:Q1 7 10.88 1.55
1977:Q1–1977:Q3 2 −1.49 −0.74   1977:Q3–1980:Q4 13 15.13 1.16
1980:Q4–1981:Q3 3 −0.65 −0.22   1981:Q3–1982:Q1 2 1.84 0.92
1982:Q1–1982:Q4 3 −1.41 −0.47   1982:Q4–1991:Q1 33 25.40 0.77
1991:Q1–1993:Q3 6 −2.24 −0.37   1993:Q3–1996:Q1 10 7.42 0.74
1996:Q1–1996:Q4 3 −0.87 −0.29   1996:Q4–2001:Q1 17 11.13 0.65
2001:Q1–2001:Q4 3 −0.10 −0.03   2001:Q4–2002:Q4 4 0.92 0.23
2002:Q4–2003:Q2 2 −0.30 −0.15  
UK
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1973:Q2–1974:Q1 3 −3.60 −1.20   1974:Q1–1974Q3 2 3.06 1.53
1974:Q3–1975:Q3 4 −2.59 −0.65   1975:Q3–1979:Q2 15 14.68 0.98
1979:Q2–1981:Q1 7 −6.03 −0.86   1981:Q1–1990:Q2 37 33.76 0.91
1990:Q2–1991:Q3 5 −2.52 −0.50   1991:Q3–2003:Q4(a) 49 39.18 0.80
Canada
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1980:Q1–1980:Q3 2 −1.38 −0.69   1980:Q3–1981:Q2 3 4.71 1.57
1981:Q2–1982:Q4 6 −4.88 −0.81   1982:Q4–1990:Q1 29 34.22 1.18
1990:Q1–1991:Q1 4 −3.37 −0.84   1991:Q1–2003:Q4(a) 51 48.08 0.94
Australia
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1971:Q3–1972:Q1 2 −1.00 −0.50   1972:Q1–1974:Q1 8 10.07 1.26
1974:Q1–1974:Q2 1 −3.24 −3.24   1974:Q2–1975:Q2 4 5.59 1.40
1975:Q2–1975:Q4 2 −1.96 −0.98   1975:Q4–1977:Q2 6 6.65 1.11
1977:Q2–1977:Q4 2 −0.61 −0.31   1977:Q4–1981:Q3 15 15.88 1.06
1981:Q3–1983:Q1 6 −3.96 −0.66   1983:Q1–1990:Q2 29 36.18 1.25
1990:Q2–1991:Q2 4 −1.22 −0.31   1991:Q2–2003:Q4(a) 50 59.43 1.19
Belgium
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1974:Q3–1975:Q2 3 −2.53 −0.84   1975:Q2–1976:Q4 6 7.46 1.24
1976:Q4–1977:Q2 2 −0.67 −0.34   1977:Q2–1980:Q1 11 11.54 1.05
1980:Q1–1980:Q4 3 −1.84 −0.61   1980:Q4–1992:Q1 45 28.75 0.64
1992:Q1–1993:Q1 4 −2.88 −0.72   1993:Q1–1995:Q3 10 7.12 0.71
1995:Q3–1996:Q1 2 −0.67 −0.33   1996:Q1–1998:Q2 9 7.71 0.86
1998:Q2–1998:Q4 2 −0.78 −0.39   1998:Q4–2000:Q4 8 9.08 1.14
2000:Q4–2001:Q4 4 −2.13 −0.53  
Netherlands
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1974:Q3–1975:Q2 3 −1.20 −0.40   1975:Q2–1979:Q4 18 16.31 0.91
1979:Q4–1981:Q3 7 −2.19 −0.31   1981:Q3–1982:Q1 2 1.02 0.51
1982:Q1–1982:Q4 3 −3.42 −1.14   1982:Q4–2002:Q3 79 31.51 0.40
2002:Q3–2003:Q2 3 −1.56 −0.52  
Spain
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1974:Q4–1975:Q2 2 −0.58 −0.29   1975:Q2–1978:Q2 12 8.40 0.70
1978:Q2–1979:Q1 3 −0.43 −0.14   1979:Q1–1980:Q4 7 1.95 0.28
1980:Q4–1981:Q2 2 −0.68 −0.34   1981:Q2–1992:Q1 43 40.26 0.94
1992:Q1–1993:Q2 5 −2.81 −0.56   1993:Q2–2003:Q4(a) 42 39.44 0.94
Sweden
Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (trough to peak)
Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points) Period Duration (quarters) Amplitude (% points) Quarterly amplitude (% points)
1970:Q4–1971:Q2 2 −2.25 −1.13   1971:Q2–1976:Q2 20 15.55 0.78
1976:Q2–1977:Q1 3 −3.01 −1.00   1977:Q1–1980:Q1 12 10.98 0.92
1980:Q1–1980:Q2 1 −4.90 −4.90   1980:Q2–1990:Q1 39 28.44 0.73
1990:Q1–1993:Q1 12 −5.65 −0.47   1993:Q1–2003:Q4(a) 43 36.12 0.84

(a) Data thus far – the expansion continued beyond 2003.

Sources: OECD Economic Outlook No 77 database; authors' calculations