RBA Annual Conference – 2005 International Business Cycle Co-movements through Time
| US | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1973:Q4–1975:Q1 | 5 | −3.10 | −0.62 | 1975:Q1–1980:Q1 | 20 | 23.21 | 1.16 | |
| 1980:Q1–1980:Q3 | 2 | −2.18 | −1.09 | 1980:Q3–1981:Q3 | 4 | 4.35 | 1.09 | |
| 1981:Q3–1982:Q3 | 4 | −2.71 | −0.68 | 1982:Q3–1990:Q2 | 31 | 37.51 | 1.21 | |
| 1990:Q2–1991:Q1 | 3 | −1.26 | −0.42 | 1991:Q1–2000:Q4 | 39 | 40.43 | 1.04 | |
| 2000:Q4–2001:Q3 | 3 | −0.17 | −0.06 | |||||
| Japan | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1973:Q4–1974:Q1 | 1 | −3.46 | −3.46 | 1974:Q1–1993:Q1 | 76 | 101.37 | 1.33 | |
| 1993:Q1–1993:Q4 | 3 | −1.67 | −0.56 | 1993:Q4–1997:Q1 | 13 | 9.83 | 0.76 | |
| 1997:Q1–1998:Q2 | 5 | −2.20 | −0.44 | 1998:Q2–2001:Q1 | 11 | 4.43 | 0.40 | |
| 2001:Q1–2002:Q1 | 4 | −2.70 | −0.68 | |||||
| Germany | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1974:Q1–1975:Q1 | 4 | −3.30 | −0.83 | 1975:Q1–1980:Q1 | 20 | 20.91 | 1.05 | |
| 1980:Q1–1980:Q4 | 3 | −1.81 | −0.60 | 1980:Q4–1981:Q3 | 3 | 1.36 | 0.45 | |
| 1981:Q3–1982:Q3 | 4 | −1.85 | −0.46 | 1982:Q3–1992:Q1 | 38 | 36.36 | 0.96 | |
| 1992:Q1–1993:Q2 | 5 | −2.66 | −0.53 | 1993:Q2–1995:Q2 | 8 | 5.01 | 0.63 | |
| 1995:Q2–1996:Q1 | 3 | −0.76 | −0.25 | 1996:Q1–2001:Q1 | 20 | 11.16 | 0.56 | |
| 2001:Q1–2001:Q4 | 3 | −0.37 | −0.12 | 2001:Q4–2002:Q3 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.17 | |
| 2002:Q3–2003:Q2 | 3 | −0.60 | −0.20 | |||||
| France | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1974:Q3–1975:Q1 | 2 | −1.95 | −0.98 | 1975:Q1–1980:Q1 | 20 | 17.76 | 0.89 | |
| 1980:Q1–1980:Q3 | 2 | −0.77 | −0.38 | 1980:Q3–1992:Q1 | 46 | 29.95 | 0.65 | |
| 1992:Q1–1993:Q1 | 4 | −1.32 | −0.33 | 1993:Q1–2002:Q3 | 38 | 23.35 | 0.61 | |
| 2002:Q3–2003:Q2 | 3 | −0.59 | −0.20 | |||||
| Italy | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1974:Q3–1975:Q2 | 3 | −3.84 | −1.28 | 1975:Q2–1977:Q1 | 7 | 10.88 | 1.55 | |
| 1977:Q1–1977:Q3 | 2 | −1.49 | −0.74 | 1977:Q3–1980:Q4 | 13 | 15.13 | 1.16 | |
| 1980:Q4–1981:Q3 | 3 | −0.65 | −0.22 | 1981:Q3–1982:Q1 | 2 | 1.84 | 0.92 | |
| 1982:Q1–1982:Q4 | 3 | −1.41 | −0.47 | 1982:Q4–1991:Q1 | 33 | 25.40 | 0.77 | |
| 1991:Q1–1993:Q3 | 6 | −2.24 | −0.37 | 1993:Q3–1996:Q1 | 10 | 7.42 | 0.74 | |
| 1996:Q1–1996:Q4 | 3 | −0.87 | −0.29 | 1996:Q4–2001:Q1 | 17 | 11.13 | 0.65 | |
| 2001:Q1–2001:Q4 | 3 | −0.10 | −0.03 | 2001:Q4–2002:Q4 | 4 | 0.92 | 0.23 | |
| 2002:Q4–2003:Q2 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.15 | |||||
| UK | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1973:Q2–1974:Q1 | 3 | −3.60 | −1.20 | 1974:Q1–1974Q3 | 2 | 3.06 | 1.53 | |
| 1974:Q3–1975:Q3 | 4 | −2.59 | −0.65 | 1975:Q3–1979:Q2 | 15 | 14.68 | 0.98 | |
| 1979:Q2–1981:Q1 | 7 | −6.03 | −0.86 | 1981:Q1–1990:Q2 | 37 | 33.76 | 0.91 | |
| 1990:Q2–1991:Q3 | 5 | −2.52 | −0.50 | 1991:Q3–2003:Q4(a) | 49 | 39.18 | 0.80 | |
| Canada | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1980:Q1–1980:Q3 | 2 | −1.38 | −0.69 | 1980:Q3–1981:Q2 | 3 | 4.71 | 1.57 | |
| 1981:Q2–1982:Q4 | 6 | −4.88 | −0.81 | 1982:Q4–1990:Q1 | 29 | 34.22 | 1.18 | |
| 1990:Q1–1991:Q1 | 4 | −3.37 | −0.84 | 1991:Q1–2003:Q4(a) | 51 | 48.08 | 0.94 | |
| Australia | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1971:Q3–1972:Q1 | 2 | −1.00 | −0.50 | 1972:Q1–1974:Q1 | 8 | 10.07 | 1.26 | |
| 1974:Q1–1974:Q2 | 1 | −3.24 | −3.24 | 1974:Q2–1975:Q2 | 4 | 5.59 | 1.40 | |
| 1975:Q2–1975:Q4 | 2 | −1.96 | −0.98 | 1975:Q4–1977:Q2 | 6 | 6.65 | 1.11 | |
| 1977:Q2–1977:Q4 | 2 | −0.61 | −0.31 | 1977:Q4–1981:Q3 | 15 | 15.88 | 1.06 | |
| 1981:Q3–1983:Q1 | 6 | −3.96 | −0.66 | 1983:Q1–1990:Q2 | 29 | 36.18 | 1.25 | |
| 1990:Q2–1991:Q2 | 4 | −1.22 | −0.31 | 1991:Q2–2003:Q4(a) | 50 | 59.43 | 1.19 | |
| Belgium | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1974:Q3–1975:Q2 | 3 | −2.53 | −0.84 | 1975:Q2–1976:Q4 | 6 | 7.46 | 1.24 | |
| 1976:Q4–1977:Q2 | 2 | −0.67 | −0.34 | 1977:Q2–1980:Q1 | 11 | 11.54 | 1.05 | |
| 1980:Q1–1980:Q4 | 3 | −1.84 | −0.61 | 1980:Q4–1992:Q1 | 45 | 28.75 | 0.64 | |
| 1992:Q1–1993:Q1 | 4 | −2.88 | −0.72 | 1993:Q1–1995:Q3 | 10 | 7.12 | 0.71 | |
| 1995:Q3–1996:Q1 | 2 | −0.67 | −0.33 | 1996:Q1–1998:Q2 | 9 | 7.71 | 0.86 | |
| 1998:Q2–1998:Q4 | 2 | −0.78 | −0.39 | 1998:Q4–2000:Q4 | 8 | 9.08 | 1.14 | |
| 2000:Q4–2001:Q4 | 4 | −2.13 | −0.53 | |||||
| Netherlands | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1974:Q3–1975:Q2 | 3 | −1.20 | −0.40 | 1975:Q2–1979:Q4 | 18 | 16.31 | 0.91 | |
| 1979:Q4–1981:Q3 | 7 | −2.19 | −0.31 | 1981:Q3–1982:Q1 | 2 | 1.02 | 0.51 | |
| 1982:Q1–1982:Q4 | 3 | −3.42 | −1.14 | 1982:Q4–2002:Q3 | 79 | 31.51 | 0.40 | |
| 2002:Q3–2003:Q2 | 3 | −1.56 | −0.52 | |||||
| Spain | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1974:Q4–1975:Q2 | 2 | −0.58 | −0.29 | 1975:Q2–1978:Q2 | 12 | 8.40 | 0.70 | |
| 1978:Q2–1979:Q1 | 3 | −0.43 | −0.14 | 1979:Q1–1980:Q4 | 7 | 1.95 | 0.28 | |
| 1980:Q4–1981:Q2 | 2 | −0.68 | −0.34 | 1981:Q2–1992:Q1 | 43 | 40.26 | 0.94 | |
| 1992:Q1–1993:Q2 | 5 | −2.81 | −0.56 | 1993:Q2–2003:Q4(a) | 42 | 39.44 | 0.94 | |
| Sweden | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contraction (peak to trough) | Expansion (trough to peak) | |||||||
| Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | Period | Duration (quarters) | Amplitude (% points) | Quarterly amplitude (% points) | |
| 1970:Q4–1971:Q2 | 2 | −2.25 | −1.13 | 1971:Q2–1976:Q2 | 20 | 15.55 | 0.78 | |
| 1976:Q2–1977:Q1 | 3 | −3.01 | −1.00 | 1977:Q1–1980:Q1 | 12 | 10.98 | 0.92 | |
| 1980:Q1–1980:Q2 | 1 | −4.90 | −4.90 | 1980:Q2–1990:Q1 | 39 | 28.44 | 0.73 | |
| 1990:Q1–1993:Q1 | 12 | −5.65 | −0.47 | 1993:Q1–2003:Q4(a) | 43 | 36.12 | 0.84 | |
|
(a) Data thus far – the expansion continued beyond 2003. Sources: OECD Economic Outlook No 77 database; authors' calculations |
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