# Conference – 1992 Inflation, Indicators and Monetary Policy

Constant | 0.004 (2.1) | 0.004 (2.1) | 0.008 (3.2) | 0.003 (1.8) | 0.004 (2.0) | 0.005 (2.5) | −0.007 (1.8) | – | – | 0.006 (2.2) | 0.006 (2.8) | 0.005 (2.1) | 0.011 (3.5) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Lagged Δ p | 0.815 (9.0;.00) | 0.833 (9.9;.00) | 0.335 (2.0;.04) | 0.848 (9.6;.00) | 0.79 (6.3;.00) | 0.63 (5.3;.00) | 0.565 (5.8;.00) | 0.695 (5.4;.00) | 0.779 (8.0;.00) | 0.750 (7.1;.00) | 0.737 (7.4;.00) | 0.719 (7.2;.00) | 0.625 (6.1;.00) |

Output gap | 0.273 (3.6;.01) | ||||||||||||

Wage rate | 0.278 (3.4;.02) | ||||||||||||

Terms of trade | 0.125 (2.6;.26) | 0.189 (3.7;.02) | |||||||||||

Import price deflator | 0.023 (0.4;.71) | 0.176 (2.7;.06) | |||||||||||

Currency | 0.525 (3.0;.00) | ||||||||||||

Broad money | 0.191 (2.0;.00) | ||||||||||||

API credit | 0.097 (2.1;.00) | ||||||||||||

Aggregate asset prices (nominal) | −0.027 (0.7;.22) | ||||||||||||

Stock prices (nominal) | −0.021 (1.5;.09) | ||||||||||||

House prices (nominal) | 0.059 (1.2;.34) | ||||||||||||

Comm. property prices (nominal) | −0.054 (2.0;.0.20) | ||||||||||||

0.54 | 0.567 | 0.48 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.48 | |

DW | 2.02 | 1.94 | 2.07 | 2.02 | 2.03 | 2.03 | 2.03 | 1.89 | 2.01 | 2.13 | 2.09 | 2.05 | 2.18 |

SEE | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.007 |

Χ^{2} struct stability 84Q1–89Q4 |
4.3 | 11.2 | 7.7 | – | 5.9 | – | 24.9^{**} |
16.65^{**} |
15.78^{**} |
12.01^{*} |
8.0 | 36.9^{**} |
14.8^{**} |

Note: The sum of the lagged coefficients are shown.
All standard errors are White (1980)-corrected for heteroskedasticity.
Where six lags were insufficient to eliminate serial
correlation (identified by Lagrange multiplier tests),
Newey-West standard errors are reported. The numbers
in parenthesis are: first, the t-valuefor the null that
the sum of the coefficients is zero; second, the marginal
significance level for Χ.^{2} tests of the null that all coefficients are zero** Reject null hypothesis of structural stability at
the 5 per cent significance level.* Reject null hypothesis of structural stability at
the 10 per cent significance level.† This is the sample period (after allowing for
lags) over which most of the models are estimated. Data
limitations force exceptions to this which include broad
money and AFI credit models, estimated from 1977Q4;
stock price and aggregate asset price models, estimated
from 1971Q2; house price and commercial property price
models, estimated from 1969Q4; the wage model, estimated
from 1970Q4 and the import price deflator model, estimated
from 1967Q3. |