Bulletin – December 2016 Equation (1)

Pr( Y i,t+1 =j| X i,t , Y i,t , Y i,1 )= exp( X i,t β j + Y i,t γ j + Y i,1 θ j ) k=1 4 exp( X i,t β k + Y i,t γ k + Y i,1 θ k ) j=1,2,3,4 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+=feaagCart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLnhiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=xfr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGceaqabeaacaqGqbGaaeOCamaabmaabaGaamywamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaaiilaiaadshacqGHRaWkcaaIXaaabeaakiabg2da9iaadQgacaGG8bGaamiwamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaaiilaiaadshaaeqaaOGaaiilaiaadMfadaWgaaWcbaGaamyAaiaacYcacaWG0baabeaakiaacYcacaWGzbWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgacaGGSaGaaGymaaqabaaakiaawIcacaGLPaaacqGH9aqpdaWcaaqaaiaabwgacaqG4bGaaeiCamaabmaabaGaamiwamaaDaaaleaacaWGPbGaaiilaiaadshaaeaarmWu51MyVXgiuL2zLjhifHhCLjhDaGqbaiab=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jdiIcaakiabeI7aXnaaBaaaleaacaWGRbaabeaaaaaakiaawIcacaGLPaaaaSqaaiaadUgacqGH9aqpcaaIXaaabaGaaGinaaqdcqGHris5aaaaaOqaaiaadQgacqGH9aqpcaaIXaGaaiilaiaaikdacaGGSaGaaG4maiaacYcacaaI0aaaaaa@9E0C@