Bulletin – September Quarter 2014 Equation (A2)

𝜑 t = α + β u t 2 + γ Δ 4 u t 3 + Σ k = 1 12 δ k 𝜑 t k m + θ π t 1 e + ε t w t = μ + ρ u t 2 + τ Δ u t 1 + σ [ ( g t 1 g t 5 ) 1 4 1 ] + ω π t 3 e + ξ t MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGceaqabeaacqaHvp GzdaWgaaWcbaGaamiDaaqabaGccqGH9aqpcqaHXoqycqGHRaWkcqaH YoGycaWG1bWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshacqGHsislcaaIYaaabeaakiabgU caRiabeo7aNjabfs5aenaaCaaaleqabaGaaGinaaaakiaadwhadaWg aaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaaiodaaeqaaOGaey4kaSYaaabmaeaacq aH0oazdaWgaaWcbaGaam4AaaqabaGccqaHvpGzdaqhaaWcbaGaamiD aiabgkHiTiaadUgaaeaacaWGTbaaaOGaey4kaSIaeqiUdeNaeqiWda 3aa0baaSqaaiaadshacqGHsislcaaIXaaabaGaamyzaaaakiabgUca Riabew7aLnaaBaaaleaacaWG0baabeaaaeaacaWGRbGaeyypa0JaaG ymaaqaaiaaigdacaaIYaaaniabggHiLdaakeaacaWG3bWaaSbaaSqa aiaadshaaeqaaOGaeyypa0JaeqiVd0Maey4kaSIaeqyWdiNaamyEam aaBaaaleaacaWG0bGaeyOeI0IaaGOmaaqabaGccqGHRaWkcqaHepaD cqqHuoarcaWG1bWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshacqGHsislcaaIXaaabeaaki abgUcaRiabeo8aZnaadmaabaWaaeWaaeaadaWcaaqaaiaadEgadaWg aaWcbaGaamiDaiabgkHiTiaaigdaaeqaaaGcbaGaam4zamaaBaaale aacaWG0bGaeyOeI0IaaGynaaqabaaaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaWaaWba aSqabeaadaWcaaqaaiaaigdaaeaacaaI0aaaaaaakiabgkHiTiaaig daaiaawUfacaGLDbaacqGHRaWkcqaHjpWDcqaHapaCdaqhaaWcbaGa amiDaiabgkHiTiaaiodaaeaacaWGLbaaaOGaey4kaSIaeqOVdG3aaS baaSqaaiaadshaaeqaaaaaaa@9660@