Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2013 List of tables

Chapters

  • Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth
  • Table 2.1: Policy Rates
  • Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
  • Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves
  • Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
  • Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
  • Table 4.1: Term Borrowing by State Authorities
  • Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
  • Table 4.3: Growth in Financial Aggregates
  • Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Boxes

  • Table A1: The Global Thermal Coal Market – 2011
Table 1.1 Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, per cent
Change
since
previous
Statement
Change
over
the past
year
Bulk commodities
– Iron ore 31 7
– Coking coal 7 −22
– Thermal coal 14 −18
Rural −2 1
– Beef −1 0
– Cotton 11 −14
– Wheat −11 15
– Wool 11 −8
Base metals 10 −2
– Aluminium 8 −4
– Copper 8 −2
– Lead 12 15
– Nickel 16 −13
– Zinc 15 3
Gold −4 −2
Brent oil(b) 6 1
RBA ICP 7 −6
– using spot prices for bulk commodities 10 −4

(a) Components of RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP), except oil and bulk commodities prices, which are spot prices; latest available
(b) US dollar terms

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 2.1: Policy Rates
Current level Per cent Most
recent
change
Change from
2011 peak Basis points
Euro area 0.75 Jul 12 −75
Japan 0.05 Oct 10
United States 0.125 Dec 08
Australia 3.00 Dec 12 −175
Brazil 7.25 Oct 12 −525
Canada 1.00 Sep 10
China 6.00 Jul 12 −56
India 7.75 Jan 13 −75
Indonesia 5.75 Feb 12 −100
Israel 1.75 Dec 12 −150
Malaysia 3.00 May 11
Mexico 4.50 Jul 09
New Zealand 2.50 Mar 11 −50
Norway 1.50 Mar 12 −75
Russia 8.25 Sep 12
South Africa 5.00 Jul 12 −50
South Korea 2.75 Oct 12 −50
Sweden 1.00 Dec 12 −100
Switzerland 0.00 Aug 11 −25
Taiwan 1.875 Jun 11
Thailand 2.75 Oct 12 −75
United Kingdom 0.50 Mar 09

Source: central banks

Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over
2012
Since late
July
Since pre-crisis
peak
United States
– Dow Jones 7 11 −1
– S&P 500 13 13 −3
– NASDAQ 16 11 11
Euro area
– STOXX 16 21 −41
United Kingdom
– FTSE 6 14 −6
Japan
– Nikkei 24 35 −37
Canada
– TSE 300 4 11 −15
Australia
– ASX 200 15 19 −28
China
– China A 3 13 −60
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia 15 15 −16
– Latin America 9 9 −12
– Emerging Europe 13 15 −37
– World 13 16 −17

Source: Bloomberg

Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over
2012
Since
end 2012
Japanese yen 13 8
South African rand 5 5
UK pound sterling −4 4
South Korean won −8 2
New Taiwan dollar −4 2
Singapore dollar −6 1
Malaysian ringgit −3 1
Australian dollar −2 1
Canadian dollar −3 0
Chinese renminbi −1 0
Swiss franc −2 −1
Philippine peso −6 −1
Indonesian rupiah 8 −1
Mexican peso −8 −1
New Zealand dollar −6 −2
Swedish krona −6 −2
European euro −2 −2
Thai baht −3 −3
Indian rupee 3 −3
Brazilian real 10 −3
Majors TWI 0 1
Broad TWI −1 0

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves
As at end December 2012
Three-month-ended change Level
US$ equivalent
(billions)
Per cent US$ equivalent
(billions)
China(a) 26 1 3,312
Japan −5 0 1,193
Russia 18 4 472
Switzerland 10 2 467
Taiwan(a),(b) 7 2 407
Brazil(b),(c) −4 −1 362
South Korea(b) 5 1 320
Hong Kong(a) 16 5 317
India(b) 1 1 262
Thailand −2 −1 171

(a) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)
(b) End January 2013
(c) Excludes intervention using currency swaps

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; IMF; RBA; Thomson Reuters; central banks

Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Over
2012
Since
end 2012
Japanese yen 15 7
South African rand 7 4
UK pound sterling −3 3
South Korean won −7 1
Singapore dollar −4 1
Malaysian ringgit −2 1
Canadian dollar −1 0
Chinese renminbi 1 −1
US dollar 2 −1
Swiss franc −1 −1
Indonesian rupiah 10 −2
New Zealand dollar −4 −2
European euro 0 −3
Thai baht −1 −3
Indian rupee 5 −4
TWI 2 1

Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters

Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
September
quarter 2012
June
quarter 2012
Year to September
quarter 2012
Domestic final demand 0.2 0.8 3.7
– Private demand 1.7 0.3 4.6
– Public demand −4.8 2.5 0.6
Change in inventories(a) 0.3 −0.3 0.4
Gross national expenditure 0.5 0.4 4.1
Net exports(a) 0.1 0.3 0.3
GDP 0.5 0.6 3.1
Nominal GDP 0.2 1.0 1.9
Real gross domestic income −0.4 0.4 −0.1

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to
September 2012
3 months to
December 2012
Year to
December 2012
Capital cities
ABS(a),(b) −0.1 1.6 2.1
APM(b) −0.5 1.8 2.1
RP Data-Rismark 1.0 0.4 −0.4
Regional areas
APM(b) −0.3 0.9 1.3
RP Data-Rismark(a) 0.9 −1.3 −0.7

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 4.1: Term Borrowing by State Authorities
Issuer 2011/12 2012/13
Issuance
$ billion
Issuance to date
$ billion
Indicative target
$ billion
New South Wales 10.6 4.9 6.9
Queensland 14.2 7.7 13.7
South Australia 2.2 2.1 ~4
Tasmania 1.4 0.6 1.0
Victoria 6.2 4.6 7.2
Western Australia 4.1 3.2 8.6
Memo: Australian Government 60.3 28.9 47.0

Sources: Australian Office of Financial Management; New South Wales Treasury Corporation; Queensland Treasury Corporation; South Australian Government Financing Authority; Treasury Corporation of Victoria; Western Australian Treasury Corporation; UBS AG, Australia Branch

Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Level at
end January 2013
Change since:
End
October 2012
End
October 2011
Cash rate 3.00 −0.25 −1.75
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) 6.44 −0.20 −1.35
– Package variable rate(b) 5.69 −0.21 −1.34
– Fixed rate(c) 5.52 −0.02 −1.00
Personal loans
– Variable rate 12.89 −0.03 −0.37
Small business (variable rates)
Residentially secured, advertised
– Term loans 7.60 −0.20 −1.40
– Overdraft 8.47 −0.20 −1.38
Average rate(d) 7.33 −0.20 −1.30
Large business
Average rate(d)
(variable rate and bill funding)
5.36 −0.29 −1.67

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package variable rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' three-year fixed rates
(d) Rates on outstanding business lending (includes discount)

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

Table 4.3: Growth in Financial Aggregates(a)
Per cent
Three-month-ended Year-ended
Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Dec 2012
Total credit 0.8 0.5 3.6
– Household 1.0 1.0 4.0
– Housing 1.1 1.1 4.5
– Owner-occupier 1.0 1.0 4.1
– Investor 1.2 1.4 5.5
– Personal −0.2 0.1 −0.3
– Business 0.3 −0.3 2.8
M3 1.4 1.1 7.2
Broad money 1.3 1.0 6.6

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Source: RBA

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
September
quarter 2012
December
quarter 2012
September
quarter 2012
December
quarter 2012
Consumer Price Index 1.4 0.2 2.0 2.2
Seasonally adjusted CPI 1.2 0.5 2.0 2.2
– Tradables 0.8 −0.3 −1.2 −0.4
– Tradables
(excl volatile items and tobacco)(c)
0.1 −0.3 −0.8 −0.7
– Non-tradables 1.6 0.8 4.0 3.9
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.7 0.6 2.3 2.3
Weighted median 0.8 0.5 2.4 2.3
CPI excl volatile items(c) 1.1 0.5 2.4 2.4

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2013 Year to December 2014
August
2012
November
2012
February
2013
November
2012
February
2013
Market economists 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7
Union officials(a) 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

(a) Excluding carbon price

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
Dec
2012
June
2013
Dec
2013
June
2014
Dec
2014
June
2015
GDP growth 2–3 2–3 2½–3½ 2½–3½
Non-farm GDP growth 2–3 2–3 2½–3½ 2½–3½
CPI inflation 2.2 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Underlying inflation 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Year-average
2012 2012/13 2013 2013/14 2014 2014/15
GDP growth 3 2–3 2–3 2¼–3¼ 2½–3½

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.03, TWI at 77 and Brent crude oil price at US$113 per barrel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table A1: The Global Thermal Coal Market – 2011
Top five exporters and importers; share of global market
Exporters Per cent Importers Per cent
Indonesia 36 European Union 19
Australia 17 China 17
Russia 13 Japan 14
Colombia 9 South Korea 11
South Africa 8 India 10

Source: Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics