Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2012 List of Tables

Chapters

Boxes

  • Table B1: Timeline of Key Legislative and Political Events
  • Table C1: Recent Hybrid Issuance by Australian Banks
Table 1.1 Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, per cent
Change
since
previous
Statement
Change
over
the past year
Bulk commodities    
– Iron ore 3 0
– Coking coal −21 −33
– Thermal coal −14 −29
Rural 1 4
– Beef 0 1
– Cotton −8 −24
– Wheat 4 30
– Wool 1 −13
Base metals 2 −2
– Aluminium 1 −7
– Copper 1 1
– Lead 13 13
– Nickel 3 −12
– Zinc 0 −2
Gold 4 −1
Brent oil(b) −6 −7
RBA ICP −6 −14
– using spot prices for bulk commodities −5 −10

(a) RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP) components except oil and bulk commodities prices, which are spot prices; latest available
(b) US dollar terms

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 2.1: Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent
Most
recent
change
Change from
2011 peak

Basis points
Euro area 0.75 Jul 12 −75
Japan 0.05 Oct 10
United States 0.125 Dec 08
Australia 3.25 Oct 12 −150
Brazil 7.25 Oct 12 −525
Canada 1.00 Sep 10
China 6.00 Jul 12 −56
India 8.00 Apr 12 −50
Indonesia 5.75 Feb 12 −100
Israel 2.00 Oct 12 −125
Malaysia 3.00 May 11
Mexico 4.50 Jul 09
New Zealand 2.50 Mar 11 −50
Norway 1.50 Mar 12 −75
Russia 8.25 Sep 12
South Africa 5.00 Jul 12 −50
South Korea 2.75 Oct 12 −50
Sweden 1.25 Sep 12 −75
Switzerland 0.00 Aug 11 −25
Taiwan 1.875 Jun 11
Thailand 2.75 Oct 12 −75
United Kingdom 0.50 Mar 09
Source: central banks
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Since end
2011
Since late
July
United States
– Dow Jones 6 2
– S&P 500 11 5
– NASDAQ 13 3
Euro area
– STOXX 9 13
United Kingdom
– FTSE 4 5
Japan
–Nikkei 6 7
Canada
– TSE 300 2 6
Australia
– ASX 200 11 10
China
– China A −4 −1
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia 11 10
– Latin America 5 5
– Emerging Europe 8 7
– World 9 6
Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Change in US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Since end 2011
Brazilian real 9
South African rand 7
Indonesian rupiah 6
Japanese yen 4
Indian rupee 2
European euro 1
Swiss franc 1
Chinese renminbi −1
Australian dollar −2
Canadian dollar −2
Thai baht −3
UK pound sterling −3
Swedish krona −3
Malaysian ringgit −3
New Taiwan dollar −4
Singapore dollar −6
South Korean won −6
New Zealand dollar −6
Mexican peso −6
Philippine peso −7
Majors TWI 0
Broad TWI −1
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves
As at end October 2012
Three-month-ended change Level
US$ equivalent
(billions)

Per cent
US$ equivalent
(billions)
China(a),(b) 45 1 3,285
Japan −1 0 1,197
Switzerland 36 9 455
Russia 10 2 453
Taiwan(a) 8 2 399
Brazil(c) 1 0 368
South Korea 9 3 315
Hong Kong(a) 11 4 302
India 4 2 260
Thailand(b) 8 5 172
Indonesia 4 4 103

(a) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)
(b) End September
(c) Excludes intervention using currency swaps

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; IMF; RBA; central banks

Table 2.5: Change in Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Since end 2011
South African rand 9
Indonesian rupiah 8
Japanese yen 6
Indian rupee 5
European euro 4
Swiss franc 3
US dollar 2
Chinese renminbi 1
Canadian dollar 0
Thai baht −1
UK pound sterling −1
Malaysian ringgit −1
Singapore dollar −4
New Zealand dollar −4
South Korean won −4
TWI 2
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; W/M Reuters
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth(a)
Per cent
June
quarter 2012
March
quarter 2012
Year to June
quarter 2012
Domestic final demand 0.9 2.1 5.8
– Private demand 0.4 2.4 6.8
– Public demand 2.3 1.2 2.7
Change in inventories(b) −0.3 0.0 −0.3
Gross national expenditure 0.6 2.0 5.4
Net exports(b) 0.3 −0.4 −0.8
GDP 0.6 1.4 3.7
Nominal GDP 1.0 0.4 3.2
Real gross domestic income 0.6 0.4 2.1

(a) Based on the June quarter 2012 national accounts release, rather than the 2011/12 annual national accounts
(b) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to
June 2012
3 months to
September 2012
Year to
September 2012
Capital cities
ABS(a),(b) 0.6 0.3 0.3
APM(b) −0.2 −0.4 −0.3
RP Data-Rismark −0.6 1.2 −1.3
Regional areas
APM(b) −1.0 −0.1 −0.3
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.4 0.4 −0.3

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Level at
8 November 2012
Change since:
End
July 2012
End
October 2011
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) 6.64 −0.19 −1.15
– Package rate(b) 5.85 −0.29 −1.18
Personal loans
12.91 −0.07 −0.36
Small business
Residentially secured, advertised¬†      
– Term loans 7.80 −0.20 −1.20
– Overdraft 8.67 −0.20 −1.18
Average rate(c) 7.50 −0.20 −1.13
Large business
Average rate(c)
(variable-rate and bill funding)
5.46 −0.13 −1.56

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Rates on outstanding, as opposed to new, business lending

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
June
quarter 2012
September
quarter 2012
June
quarter 2012
September
quarter 2012
Consumer Price Index 0.5 1.4 1.2 2.0
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.7 1.2 1.2 2.0
– Tradables 0.6 0.7 −2.0 −1.2
– Tradables
(excl volatile items and tobacco)(c)
0.2 0.1 −1.3 −0.8
– Non-tradables 0.7 1.5 3.4 4.0
Selected underlying measures        
Trimmed mean 0.6 0.7 2.0 2.4
Weighted median 0.7 0.8 2.2 2.6
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.4

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to June 2013 Year to June 2014
May
2012
August
2012
November
2012
August
2012
November
2012
Market economists 3.4 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.7
Union officials(a) 2.4 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5

(a) Excluding carbon price

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
June
2012
Dec
2012
June
2013
Dec
2013
June
2014
Dec
2014
GDP growth 3.7 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼ 2½–3½
Non-farm GDP growth 3.6 3 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼ 2½–3½
CPI inflation 1.2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Underlying inflation 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Year-average(b)
2011/12 2012 2012/13 2013 2013/14 2014
GDP growth 3.4 3 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼
(a)Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.04, TWI at 77 and Brent crude oil price at US$104 per barrel
(b) Based on the quarterly national accounts release rather than the recent annual release
Sources: ABS; RBA
Table B1: Timeline of Key Legislative and Political Events
Year Date Event
2012 6 November Federal elections for:
– President and Vice-President
– All seats in the House of Representatives
– One-third of the seats in the Senate
The existing Congress returns for a final session of government before the new Congress is sworn in
  31 December Expiry of various individual income tax measures
Expiry of the temporary reduction in payroll tax
2013 2 January End of extended (emergency) unemployment benefits
Automatic spending cuts from the Budget Control Act 2011 take effect
  3 January New Congress sworn in
  21 January Inauguration ceremony for elected President
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of Labor; Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies
Table C1: Recent Hybrid Issuance by Australian Banks

Date

Issuer

Market
Issuance amount
(A$ billion)
Issuance spread
(bps over BBSW)
Reason for
issuance as stated(a)
Tier 1 Hybrid Securities
Sep 11 ANZ(b) Domestic 1.3 310 General
Feb 12 Westpac(b) Domestic 1.2 325 General
Mar 12 Macquarie(b) Offshore 0.2 n/a n/a
Sep 12 CBA Domestic 2.0 380 Redemption; general
Sep 12 Bendigo and Adelaide Domestic 0.3 500 Redemption; general
Tier 2 Hybrid Securities
Feb 12 ANZ Domestic 1.5 275 General
May 12 NAB Domestic 1.2 275 General
Jul 12 Westpac Domestic 1.7 275 General

(a) ‘General’ refers to general corporate purposes; ‘redemption’ refers to redemption of existing hybrid securities
(b) At minimum interim rules

Sources: RBA; company announcements