Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2012 List of tables

Table 1.1 Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, per cent

 

Change
since
previous
Statement

Change
over the
past year
Bulk commodities    
– Iron ore −19 −33
– Coking coal −8 −33
– Thermal coal −5 −19
Rural 8 −1
– Beef −1 9
– Cotton −11 −20
– Wheat 45 21
– Wool −10 −20
Base metals −7 −12
– Aluminium −6 −16
– Copper −8 −9
– Lead −8 −9
– Nickel −7 −22
– Zinc −5 −5
Gold 0 −1
Brent oil(b) −5 9
RBA ICP 1 −9

(a) RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP) components except oil and bulk commodities prices, which are spot prices; latest available
(b) US dollar terms

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 2.1: Spanish Central
Government Debt Securities(a)
As at May 2012
Share of total
€ billions Per cent
Securities 600  
Held by:    
Spanish banks 233 39
Government/Bank of Spain 65 11
Other domestic 116 19
Foreign holders(b) 186 31
– Foreign banks(c) 57 10
(a) Does not include unconsolidated autonomous regional debt of €145 billion and local government debt of €37 billion
(b) Includes ECB holdings
(c) As at March 2012
Sources: Bank of Spain; BIS; RBA; Spanish Treasury
Table 2.2: Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent
Most
recent
change
Change from
2011 peak

Basis points
Euro area 0.75 Jul 12 −75
Japan 0.05 Oct 10
United States 0.125 Dec 08
Australia 3.50 Jun 12 −125
Brazil 8.00 Jul 12 −450
Canada 1.00 Sep 10
China 6.00 Jul 12 −56
India 8.00 Apr 12 −50
Indonesia 5.75 Feb 12 −100
Israel 2.25 Jun 12 −100
Malaysia 3.00 May 11
Mexico 4.50 Jul 09
New Zealand 2.50 Mar 11 −50
Norway 1.50 Mar 12 −75
Russia 8.00 Dec 11 −25
South Africa 5.00 Jul 12 −50
South Korea 3.00 Jul 12 −25
Sweden 1.50 Feb 12 −50
Switzerland 0.00 Aug 11 −25
Taiwan 1.875 Jun 11
Thailand 3.00 Jan 12 −50
United Kingdom 0.50 Mar 09
Source: central banks
Table 2.3: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Since
end
2011
Since
mid March
2012
United States    
– Dow Jones 8 0
– S&P 500 11 0
– NASDAQ 16 −1
Euro area    
– STOXX 7 −6
United Kingdom    
– FTSE 5 −2
Japan    
– Nikkei 5 −12
Canada    
– TSE 300 −1 −6
Australia    
– ASX 200 6 1
China    
– China A −2 −10
MSCI indices    
– Emerging Asia 6 −6
– Latin America 5 −5
– Emerging Europe 7 −8
– World 8 −3
Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.4: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over
2011
Since end
2011
Brazilian real 12 9
European euro 3 5
Indonesian rupiah 1 4
Indian rupee 19 4
Swiss franc 0 4
Japanese yen −5 2
Chinese renminbi −5 1
South African rand 22 0
Thai baht 5 0
UK pound sterling 0 −1
New Taiwan dollar 4 −1
Malaysian ringgit 3 −2
Canadian dollar 2 −3
South Korean won 3 −3
Swedish krona 3 −3
Australian dollar 0 −3
Singapore dollar 1 −4
New Zealand dollar 0 −5
Philippine peso 1 −5
Mexican peso 13 −6
Majors TWI 0 1
Broad TWI 2 0
 Source: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.5: Foreign Currency Reserves
As at end July 2012
Three-month-ended change Level
US$ equivalent
(billions)
Per cent US$ equivalent
(billions)
China(a),(b) −65 −2 3,240
Japan −14 −1 1,197
Russia −19 −4 440
Switzerland 155 59 416
Taiwan −4 −1 391
Brazil 3 1 367
South Korea −3 −1 306
India −4 −2 256
Thailand(b) −4 −2 164

(a) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)
(b) End June

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; IMF; RBA

Table 2.6: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Over
2011
Since end
2011
European euro 3 9
Indonesian rupiah 1 8
Indian rupee 18 8
Swiss franc 0 7
Japanese yen −6 6
Chinese renminbi −5 5
South African rand 22 4
US dollar 0 4
Thai baht 5 3
UK pound sterling 0 3
Malaysian ringgit 3 2
Canadian dollar 2 1
South Korean won 3 1
Singapore dollar 1 0
New Zealand dollar 0 −1
TWI 0 4
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
March
quarter 2012
Year to March
quarter 2012
Domestic final demand 1.8 5.0
– Private demand 2.2 6.7
– Public demand 0.3 −0.4
Change in inventories(a) −0.1 0.5
Gross national expenditure 1.7 5.5
Net exports(a) −0.5 −1.3
GDP 1.3 4.3
Nominal GDP 0.3 4.6
Real gross domestic income 0.2 3.5

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to
March 2012
3 months to
June 2012
Year to
June 2012
Capital cities
ABS(a),(b) −0.1 0.5 −2.1
APM(b) 0.9 0.0 −1.1
RP Data-Rismark −1.6 −0.6 −3.6
Regional areas
APM(b) 1.1 1.9 1.8
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.1 −1.6 −2.2

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarterly measures

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Level at
8 August 2012
Change since:
End
April 2012
End
October 2011
Housing loans(a) 6.14 −0.59 −0.89
Personal loans 12.92 −0.26 −0.30
Small business      
Residentially secured      
– Term loans 7.99 −0.63 −1.00
– Overdraft 8.87 −0.62 −0.99
Average rate(b) 7.68 −0.63 −1.05
Large business      
Average rate(b)
(variable-rate and bill funding)
5.85 −0.72 −1.06
(a) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on $250,000 full-doc loans
(b) Rates on outstanding, as opposed to new, business lending
Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
March
quarter 2012
June
quarter 2012
March
quarter 2012
June
quarter 2012
CPI 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.2
Seasonally adjusted CPI −0.2 0.6 1.6 1.2
– Tradables −1.6 0.5 −1.5 −2.0
– Tradables
(excl volatile items and tobacco)(c)
−0.8 0.1 −1.3 −1.3
– Non-tradables(d) 0.7 0.7 3.5 3.3
Selected underlying measures        
Trimmed mean 0.4 0.5 2.2 2.0
Weighted median 0.4 0.7 2.1 1.9
CPI excl volatile items(c),(d) 0.3 0.5 2.0 1.9

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel
(d) Excludes deposit and loan facilities to June 2011

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2012 Year to December 2013
February
2012
May
2012
August
2012
May
2011
August
2012
Market economists 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7
Union officials(a) 3.0 2.3 2.0 2.5 2.2

(a) Excluding carbon price

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
June
2012
Dec
2012
June
2013
Dec
2013
June
2014
Dec
2014
GDP growth 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½
Non-farm GDP growth 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2½–3½
CPI inflation 1.2 2½–3½ 2–3 2–3 2–3
Underlying inflation 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Year-average
2011/12 2012 2012/13 2013 2013/14 2014
GDP growth 3–3½ 2¾–3¼ 2½–3½ 2½–3½

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.06, TWI at 79 and Brent crude oil price at US$108 per barrel

Sources: ABS; RBA