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RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2011

List of tables

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Chapters

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth

Table 2.1: Policy Rates

Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices

Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies

Table 2.4: Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table 2.5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies

Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth

Table 4.1: Intermediaries’ Lending Rates

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

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Boxes

Table A1: Weight of Commodities in the CPI

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Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth Per cent, SDR terms
  Change since previous Statement Change over the past year
(a) Average of WTI and Tapis crude oil prices
(b) Average Australian monthly export prices, RBA estimates for recent months
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Oil(a) 19 30
– US$ terms 22 39
Base metals    
– Aluminum 8 22
– Copper −9 24
– Lead −7 16
– Nickel −5 3
– Zinc −12 −2
Gold 10 20
Rural    
– Beef −6 10
– Cotton −16 79
– Sugar −34 31
– Wheat −9 61
– Wool 9 62
Bulk commodities(b)    
– Iron ore 14 33
– Coking coal 39 47
– Thermal coal 14 26
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Table 2.1: Policy Rates
  Current level
Per cent		 Most recent
change		 Cumulative increase
Basis points
Source: central banks
Euro area 1.25 ↑ Apr 11 25
Japan 0.05 ↓ Oct 10 –
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 –
Brazil 12.00 ↑ Apr 11 325
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 75
China 6.31 ↑ Apr 11 100
India 7.25 ↑ May 11 250
Indonesia 6.75 ↑ Feb 11 25
Israel 3.00 ↑ Mar 11 250
Malaysia 2.75 ↑ Jul 10 75
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09 –
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Mar 11 –
Norway 2.00 ↑ May 10 75
Russia 8.25 ↑ Apr 11 50
South Africa 5.50 ↓ Nov 10 –
South Korea 3.00 ↑ Mar 11 100
Sweden 1.75 ↑ Apr 11 150
Switzerland 0.25 ↓ Mar 09 –
Taiwan 1.75 ↑ Apr 11 50
Thailand 2.75 ↑ Apr 11 150
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 –
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Table 2.2: Changes in
International Share Prices Per cent
  Past year Since previous
Statement
Source: Bloomberg
United States
– Dow Jones 16 6
– S&P 500 15 3
– NASDAQ 17 3
Euro area
– STOXX 11 −1
United Kingdom
– FTSE 11 0
Japan
– Nikkei −10 −4
Canada
– TSE 300 13 −1
Australia
– ASX 200 0 −1
China
– China A 1 2
MSCI Indices
– Emerging Asia 14 2
– Latin America 3 −5
– Emerging Europe 19 1
– World 9 0
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Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar
against Selected Currencies Per cent
  Past year Since previous
Statement
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Japanese yen −15 −1
Chinese renminbi −5 −1
New Taiwan dollar −9 −2
UK pound sterling −8 −2
Malaysian ringgit −7 −2
New Zealand dollar −9 −2
South Korean won −5 −2
Indian rupee 0 −2
Thai baht −7 −3
Philippine peso −5 −3
Canadian dollar −6 −3
Brazilian real −8 −3
Mexican peso −7 −3
Singapore dollar −11 −3
Swedish krona −18 −5
Indonesian rupiah −5 −5
Australian dollar −15 −6
South African rand −12 −7
European euro −12 −7
Swiss franc −22 −8
Majors TWI −11 −5
Broad TWI −8 −3
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2.4: Foreign Exchange Reserves As at end March 2011
  Three-month-ended change Level
  US$ billion Per cent US$ billion
(a) RBA estimates of official reserve assets excluding gold
Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; RBA
China 197 7 3,045
Japan 6 1 1,041
Russia 21 5 454
Taiwan 11 3 393
Brazil(a) 28 10 309
South Korea 7 2 294
Thailand 9 5 174
South Africa 5 15 41
Chile(a) 4 13 30
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Table 2.5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies Per cent
  Change over
past year		 Change since previous Statement Deviation from post-float average
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; W/M Reuters
US dollar 19 6 47
Japanese yen 2 5 −8
Chinese renminbi 13 5 48
UK pound sterling 9 4 45
Malaysian ringgit 9 4 42
New Zealand dollar 8 4 10
South Korean won 12 4 66
Indian rupee 17 4 76
Thai baht 10 4 36
Canadian dollar 10 3 10
Singapore dollar 5 3 6
Indonesian rupiah 9 1 138
South African rand 4 −1 58
European euro 3 −1 9
Swiss franc −9 −3 −13
TWI 9 4 31
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Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth Per cent
  December
 quarter 2010		 Year to December quarter 2010
(a) Contribution to GDP growth
Source: ABS
Domestic final demand 0.3 2.7
− Private demand 0.2 1.6
− Public demand 0.7 6.0
Change in inventories(a) 0.8 0.4
GNE 1.1 3.1
Net exports(a) 0.0 −0.7
GDP 0.7 2.7
Nominal GDP 1.2 8.8
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Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth Per cent
3 months to
December 2010		 3 months to
March 2011		 Year to
March 2011
(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate
Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Capital cities
ABS(a)(b) 0.8 −1.7 −0.2
APM −0.8 −0.2 −0.6
RP Data-Rismark 0.3 −2.1 −0.6
Regional areas
APM(b) −1.0 −1.8 −3.1
RP Data-Rismark(a) 0.4 −1.8 −0.5
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Table 4.1: Intermediaries’ Lending Rates(a) Per cent
Change Since:
Level at
end April 2011		 February
Statement		 End
April 2010
(a) Variable interest rates unless otherwise indicated
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on $250,000 full-doc loans
Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; Perpetual; RBA
Cash rate  4.75 0.00 0.50
Housing loans(b) 7.09 −0.06 0.59
Personal loans  12.89 −0.01 0.65
Small business
Residentially secured
– Term loans 8.99 0.00 0.65
– Overdraft  9.86 0.00 0.65
Average actual rate  8.82 0.00 0.48
Large business
Average actual rate (variable and bill funding) 6.97 −0.10 0.63
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Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates Percentage change
Average monthly growth Year to
March 2011
December quarter 2010 March quarter 2010
Source: RBA
Total credit 0.2 0.5 3.6
– Owner-occupier housing 0.6 0.5 6.5
– Investor housing 0.5 0.4 6.7
– Personal 0.0 0.3 1.0
– Business −0.4 0.6 −0.6
Broad money 0.7 0.6 7.6
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Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation Per cent
Quarterly   Year-ended
December
quarter 2010		 March
quarter 2011		 December
quarter 2010		 March
quarter 2011
(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel
Sources: ABS; RBA
CPI 0.4 1.6   2.7 3.3
– Tradables 0.3 1.8   1.6 3.3
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco)		 −1.2 −0.6   −2.0 −1.6
– Non-tradables
(excl deposit & loan facilities)		 0.6 1.1   3.5 3.3
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.3 0.9   2.2 2.3
Weighted median 0.5 0.8   2.2 2.2
CPI excl volatile items(a) and deposit & loan facilities 0.1 0.7   2.5 2.6
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Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations Per cent
Year to December 2011   Year to December 2012
November
2010		 February
2011		 May
2011		   February
2011		 May
2011
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Market economists(a) 3.2 3.3 3.3   3.1 3.1
Union officials(b) 3.0 3.2 3.3   3.2 3.1
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Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a) Per cent
(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.07, TWI at 78 and Tapis crude oil price at US$126 per barrel
Sources: ABS; RBA
  Year-ended
Dec
2010		 June
2011		 Dec
2011		 June
2012		 Dec
2012		 June
2013		 Dec
2013
GDP growth 2.7 2½ 4¼ 4¼ 3¾ 3¾ 3¾
Non-farm GDP growth 2.1 2½ 4½ 4 3¾ 3¾ 3¾
CPI inflation 2.7 3½ 3¼ 2½ 3 3 3¼
Underlying inflation 2¼ 2½ 3 3 3 3 3¼
  Year-average
2010 2010/11 2011 2011/12 2012 2012/13 2013
GDP growth 2.7 2½ 3¼ 4½ 4¼ 3¾ 3¾
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Table A1: Weight of Commodities in the CPI(a) Per cent
  Food(b)  Household energy Vehicle fuel
(a) Effective weights for 2011 or nearest available year
(b) Food and non-alcoholic beverages; excludes food consumed away from the home in all economies except China
(c) Estimates
Sources: ABS; CEIC; Eurostat; Office for National Statistics; RBA; US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Australia 12 3 4
China(c) 31 6½ ½
India 45 9½ na
Japan 19½ 5½ 2½
East Asia (excl China and Japan)(c) 19 4½ 5½
Euro area 15½ 5½ 4½
United Kingdom 12 4½ 4½
United States 8 4 4½
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